A
Axe Elf
For those of you who may be unfamiliar with Axe Elf’s “Sleepers & Stinkers,” this is where I provide you with a graduate level “Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em” list. I intend to go beyond the simple advice of starting anyone you drafted in the first three rounds, and instead give you a few solid starters you might find on your bench or on the waiver wire--the “Sleepers.” Conversely, where there are some guys you might normally start in most weeks, I will also let you know if they are a “Stinker” for the week in question, and could therefore be benched if you have any other reasonable alternative.
And so, without further ado, let us proceed, position by position, with the Week 1 Sleepers & Stinkers...
QBs
Sleepers
Carson Palmer
My expectations are tempered a bit by the broken leg of their first round draft pick and starting offensive guard Jonathan Cooper, but Palmer is still going to come out throwing in the new Bruce Arians offense that seems tailor-made for his skillset. People think St. Louis has such a great defense, but they were really only middle-of-the-road (15th) against the pass in 2012. This high octane offense should be able to move the ball in the Edward Jones Dome, and since the Cardinals had no rushing TDs in the preseason, I have to pencil in 300/3 for Palmer, with a fumble from the pressure the Rams can get on the QB.
Michael Vick
Here’s a guy who likes to be the center of attention--unless of course it’s in the shower of a penitentiary--but playing on Monday Night Football should bring out his best. Vick will also be unveiling a new offense for his team--one where he should run plenty of plays, have lots of opportunities for one of his RB dumpoffs to turn into a long gainer, and might even get a chance to run one in on top of 2 throwing TDs against last year’s #30 pass defense (which also allowed long TD runs to both Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene in a preseason game). I would look for a pretty nice night from Vick--250/2 with 30/1 on the ground--but Vick being Vick you also have to count on at least one INT.
Brandon Weeden
In just over four quarters of preseason play, Weeden put up 334 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs and a QB rating of 99.9--the new Norv Turner offense seems to suit him. He will be debuting that offense at home against last year’s #27 pass defense--the Miami Dolphins--which lost a starting CB and 2009 2nd round pick Sean Smith to the Chiefs in the offseason. If Josh Gordon was starting, this would be just about a perfect storm for Weeden, but between Little, Cameron, Bess, Benjamin and Richardson, Weeden should still be good for 275/2--minimum--in an easy win over the ‘Phins.
Terrelle Pryor
I really can’t imagine a situation in which you would be forced to start Terrelle Pryor in Week 1--maybe you drafted early, and your fantasy QBs were what, Mark Sanchez and Matt Flynn? So it’s not like anyone cares, but just for the record, Pryor’s scrambles and garbage time heroics bear watching for future emergencies. The Colts were in the bottom dozen against the pass last year, but it’s really Pryor’s feet that give him the most potential. I’m going to call 190/1 passing with an INT, and 50/1 rushing for a tidy little 20-point fantasy outing.
Stinkers
Russell Wilson
Everyone talks about the Seattle defense, but the Carolina defense has probably made the most improvement of any team this offseason. They used their first and second round picks on elite defensive linemen, and you better believe that they will be focused on containing and pressuring Russell Wilson. One of Wilson’s top WRs (Rice) has sat out most of the preseason, so you might expect the chemistry to be a little rusty there, and you might expect Seattle to do more business on the ground than in the air anyway. Russell will do well to top 200 yards and a TD with 25 rushing yards--and an INT.
Jay Cutler
Cincinnati seems to be the sleeper D darling of the fantasy underworld this preseason. (Is it because of Hard Knocks? I never watched it.) So when facing a known INT factory like Cutler, I’ll bite. Who knows if Marshall even has his head on straight yet (I’m not hip to his thoughts--did you see what I did there?), and outside of him, the Bengals don’t really even have to cover anyone. Cutler throws 2 INTs trying to force the ball to Marshall, and posts 225/1 otherwise.
Aaron Rodgers
This offensive line was a wreck to begin with, and after a couple more preseason hits, they started to look like a lambskin prophylactic trying to prevent the transmission of the HIV virus. I mean there were defensive players just standing in the backfield at times, checking their watches as they waited for Lacy to get the handoff. I don’t mean to be flippant about a player’s health, but I seriously think Rodgers will be lucky to get out of San Francisco healthy. Given that Rodgers throws up about seven weeks of production under 15 fantasy points in any given year anyway, this seems like a perfect time for him to post another one.
RBs
Sleepers
Daryl Richardson
From what I saw in preseason, the Rams’ passing game isn’t anywhere near what they would like it to be yet. The Cardinals’ defense was one of the worst against the run last season (#28). That adds up to a dome-load of opportunity for second-year back Daryl Richardson, who should touch the ball a good 25 times in this game. That puts him in line for about 110 combined yards with a score.
Ronnie Hillman
The Ravens are preparing for Demaryius Thomas--and keeping an eye on the other Thomas as well. They’re preparing for Wes Welker underneath and Eric Decker in the red zone. I don’t know how much they will have left over to prepare for the three-headed monster in the Broncos’ backfield, and “Darren Sproles Lite” should be the main beneficiary--after all, he is still the nominal “starter.” In a PPR league, Hillman should post in excess of 15 fantasy points on opening night.
Vick Ballard
The Colts should be ahead for most of this game, and they will feel no need to rush Ahmad Bradshaw back into a heavy load at RB. That means that Luck should be handing off to Ballard frequently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ballard approach 20 touches in this game, and at his career average of 3.9 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per catch, that’s good for about 90 yards--and a score.
Ben Tate
The Texans are in no hurry to rush Arian Foster back into heavy duty either, and that means a better than average game for Ben Tate in what should be another easy victory. Tate should see about 75 combined yards and a TD.
Stinkers
LeSean McCoy
A crafty veteran like Mike Shanahan isn’t going to let a rookie NFL coach come onto his home turf in the Monday Night Football opener and run all over last year’s 5th-best rushing defense--it just ain’t gonna happen. McCoy is going to have more Redskins on him than General Custer. 50 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, and no score is the call.
Ray Rice
Baltimore is going to have to abandon their RBBC plans pretty early on and throw the ball to try to keep up with Denver. When they DO run, Denver has one of the best run defenses in the league (#3 in 2012) waiting to stuff them. Flacco will target Rice in the passing game to try to get him into space at times, but it won’t be enough. Rice will go scoreless on 60 yards rushing and 30 yards receiving.
CJ Spiller
Spiller got a bit of a break when it was announced that Manuel will start--at least he won’t be facing nine or ten men in the box. Still, he’s the main attraction in a rushing scheme that was 25th in the nation in rushing attempts but only 41st in the nation in rushing yards last year in the college ranks at Syracuse; I’m not expecting any fireworks at the pro level. New England’s defense is savvy enough to limit Spiller to single digit fantasy points.
Arian Foster
To piggyback off of Ben Tate’s “sleeper” status, Foster will likely take a seat after his first 60 yards and a TD. Maybe not a horrible night, but it’s not what you wanted from your first round pick, either.
And so, without further ado, let us proceed, position by position, with the Week 1 Sleepers & Stinkers...
QBs
Sleepers
Carson Palmer
My expectations are tempered a bit by the broken leg of their first round draft pick and starting offensive guard Jonathan Cooper, but Palmer is still going to come out throwing in the new Bruce Arians offense that seems tailor-made for his skillset. People think St. Louis has such a great defense, but they were really only middle-of-the-road (15th) against the pass in 2012. This high octane offense should be able to move the ball in the Edward Jones Dome, and since the Cardinals had no rushing TDs in the preseason, I have to pencil in 300/3 for Palmer, with a fumble from the pressure the Rams can get on the QB.
Michael Vick
Here’s a guy who likes to be the center of attention--unless of course it’s in the shower of a penitentiary--but playing on Monday Night Football should bring out his best. Vick will also be unveiling a new offense for his team--one where he should run plenty of plays, have lots of opportunities for one of his RB dumpoffs to turn into a long gainer, and might even get a chance to run one in on top of 2 throwing TDs against last year’s #30 pass defense (which also allowed long TD runs to both Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene in a preseason game). I would look for a pretty nice night from Vick--250/2 with 30/1 on the ground--but Vick being Vick you also have to count on at least one INT.
Brandon Weeden
In just over four quarters of preseason play, Weeden put up 334 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs and a QB rating of 99.9--the new Norv Turner offense seems to suit him. He will be debuting that offense at home against last year’s #27 pass defense--the Miami Dolphins--which lost a starting CB and 2009 2nd round pick Sean Smith to the Chiefs in the offseason. If Josh Gordon was starting, this would be just about a perfect storm for Weeden, but between Little, Cameron, Bess, Benjamin and Richardson, Weeden should still be good for 275/2--minimum--in an easy win over the ‘Phins.
Terrelle Pryor
I really can’t imagine a situation in which you would be forced to start Terrelle Pryor in Week 1--maybe you drafted early, and your fantasy QBs were what, Mark Sanchez and Matt Flynn? So it’s not like anyone cares, but just for the record, Pryor’s scrambles and garbage time heroics bear watching for future emergencies. The Colts were in the bottom dozen against the pass last year, but it’s really Pryor’s feet that give him the most potential. I’m going to call 190/1 passing with an INT, and 50/1 rushing for a tidy little 20-point fantasy outing.
Stinkers
Russell Wilson
Everyone talks about the Seattle defense, but the Carolina defense has probably made the most improvement of any team this offseason. They used their first and second round picks on elite defensive linemen, and you better believe that they will be focused on containing and pressuring Russell Wilson. One of Wilson’s top WRs (Rice) has sat out most of the preseason, so you might expect the chemistry to be a little rusty there, and you might expect Seattle to do more business on the ground than in the air anyway. Russell will do well to top 200 yards and a TD with 25 rushing yards--and an INT.
Jay Cutler
Cincinnati seems to be the sleeper D darling of the fantasy underworld this preseason. (Is it because of Hard Knocks? I never watched it.) So when facing a known INT factory like Cutler, I’ll bite. Who knows if Marshall even has his head on straight yet (I’m not hip to his thoughts--did you see what I did there?), and outside of him, the Bengals don’t really even have to cover anyone. Cutler throws 2 INTs trying to force the ball to Marshall, and posts 225/1 otherwise.
Aaron Rodgers
This offensive line was a wreck to begin with, and after a couple more preseason hits, they started to look like a lambskin prophylactic trying to prevent the transmission of the HIV virus. I mean there were defensive players just standing in the backfield at times, checking their watches as they waited for Lacy to get the handoff. I don’t mean to be flippant about a player’s health, but I seriously think Rodgers will be lucky to get out of San Francisco healthy. Given that Rodgers throws up about seven weeks of production under 15 fantasy points in any given year anyway, this seems like a perfect time for him to post another one.
RBs
Sleepers
Daryl Richardson
From what I saw in preseason, the Rams’ passing game isn’t anywhere near what they would like it to be yet. The Cardinals’ defense was one of the worst against the run last season (#28). That adds up to a dome-load of opportunity for second-year back Daryl Richardson, who should touch the ball a good 25 times in this game. That puts him in line for about 110 combined yards with a score.
Ronnie Hillman
The Ravens are preparing for Demaryius Thomas--and keeping an eye on the other Thomas as well. They’re preparing for Wes Welker underneath and Eric Decker in the red zone. I don’t know how much they will have left over to prepare for the three-headed monster in the Broncos’ backfield, and “Darren Sproles Lite” should be the main beneficiary--after all, he is still the nominal “starter.” In a PPR league, Hillman should post in excess of 15 fantasy points on opening night.
Vick Ballard
The Colts should be ahead for most of this game, and they will feel no need to rush Ahmad Bradshaw back into a heavy load at RB. That means that Luck should be handing off to Ballard frequently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ballard approach 20 touches in this game, and at his career average of 3.9 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per catch, that’s good for about 90 yards--and a score.
Ben Tate
The Texans are in no hurry to rush Arian Foster back into heavy duty either, and that means a better than average game for Ben Tate in what should be another easy victory. Tate should see about 75 combined yards and a TD.
Stinkers
LeSean McCoy
A crafty veteran like Mike Shanahan isn’t going to let a rookie NFL coach come onto his home turf in the Monday Night Football opener and run all over last year’s 5th-best rushing defense--it just ain’t gonna happen. McCoy is going to have more Redskins on him than General Custer. 50 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, and no score is the call.
Ray Rice
Baltimore is going to have to abandon their RBBC plans pretty early on and throw the ball to try to keep up with Denver. When they DO run, Denver has one of the best run defenses in the league (#3 in 2012) waiting to stuff them. Flacco will target Rice in the passing game to try to get him into space at times, but it won’t be enough. Rice will go scoreless on 60 yards rushing and 30 yards receiving.
CJ Spiller
Spiller got a bit of a break when it was announced that Manuel will start--at least he won’t be facing nine or ten men in the box. Still, he’s the main attraction in a rushing scheme that was 25th in the nation in rushing attempts but only 41st in the nation in rushing yards last year in the college ranks at Syracuse; I’m not expecting any fireworks at the pro level. New England’s defense is savvy enough to limit Spiller to single digit fantasy points.
Arian Foster
To piggyback off of Ben Tate’s “sleeper” status, Foster will likely take a seat after his first 60 yards and a TD. Maybe not a horrible night, but it’s not what you wanted from your first round pick, either.
