Antonio Gates - Healthy rebound or continued decline?

Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
It was not too long ago when Gates has ascended to the top of the TE mountain. However, the last couple years he has not been at mountain top. While still performing as a top tier TE, he has not been that elite presence and difference maker at the TE position. Injuries have slowed him down and he just has not been the same dominant force.

Now reports are that Gates is once again healthy, so what does that mean for his fantasy owner? Will he once again rise to the top, or will he continue his gradual slide?
 
I don't know if I would state he is in a gradual slide. When healthy he has continued to be able to dominate at the position. If healthy and able to remain so I would expect him to continue to be a top producing TE.

That said, I do not think he is going to pass Witten. It is my impression that the team does not have to rely on him as heavily as it has in the past. Granted Chambers is past his prime and Jackson may not ever become a legitimate #1 WR the position has been upgraded over what they had earlier in Gates career.

Who other than Witten would you rank ahead of him? Clark? Olsen (say it ain't so)? A rejuvenated Gonzo?
 
I don't rank anyone other than Witten ahead of him. His number dipped considerably last year, but I am going to chalk it up to injury and feel that he will bounce back in a big way. he may even over take Witten again, defiantly possible, but I'd still play it safe with Witten if given the chance. I do think we have seen a gradual decline in his numbers over the last 3 years, but I thnk he'll bounce back this year and buck that trend.
 
Miller said:
I don't rank anyone other than Witten ahead of him. His number dipped considerably last year, but I am going to chalk it up to injury and feel that he will bounce back in a big way. he may even over take Witten again, defiantly possible, but I'd still play it safe with Witten if given the chance. I do think we have seen a gradual decline in his numbers over the last 3 years, but I thnk he'll bounce back this year and buck that trend.
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I'm glad to see you say this as I remember a poster saying turf toes aren't a big deal.
 
Miller said:
I do think we have seen a gradual decline in his numbers over the last 3 years, but I thnk he'll bounce back this year and buck that trend.
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A decline from his 2005 totals but I would argue that there has not been a decline in his abilities (always with the addition of "when healthy") yet. 06-07 seasons were pretty consistent and more in line with his 04 year. Like you said his totals last year took quite a drop but most (if not all) was influenced by the injury rather than any overall decline in skill...
 
04 & 05 were Elite years and set the bar. 06 & 07 he declined and seemed to set a new bar.....08 he declined again (is this what we are to expect)?

This isn't an opinion on the decline in his fantasy numbers, it's just me pointing out the facts. Look at his fantasy output from 04 & 05, compare it to 06 & 07....pretty clear decline. Then compare that to 08, again, a decline.

Now to the point where we agree. You are trying to imply that I have stated his skills have declined.....i have not. His numbers have, I agree with you and feel it is more a run of injuries and not his skill level. I still believe he is one of, if not the most talented TE's in the game.

But to debate that his fantasy numbers have not gradually declined over the last couple year from his peak season of 04 & 05 seems to be arguing against facts....
 
Put me down for a slight bounce if he is healthy. Rivers has really matured as a QB and doesn't have to funnel the O through Gates as much. Rivers now puts up great fantasy numbers as a QB even though he spreads the ball around so much that his WRs are a fantasy wasteland.
 
I feel he stays in the top 5 or 6, I just don't know how many games he can take over on his own now. LT isn't quite the threat he used to be, and that used to help keep the linebackers a bit more honest. Sproles is a new dimension to third down situations which used to be Gates domain. Add to that the fact Chambers and vincent Jackson are now a formidable Wr tandem, and it all leads me to believe that Gates doesn't have to do as much now. He might have it in him now that he is healthy, but he now has a better supporting cast.
 
Remote Controller said:
I feel he stays in the top 5 or 6, I just don't know how many games he can take over on his own now. LT isn't quite the threat he used to be, and that used to help keep the linebackers a bit more honest. Sproles is a new dimension to third down situations which used to be Gates domain. Add to that the fact Chambers and vincent Jackson are now a formidable Wr tandem, and it all leads me to believe that Gates doesn't have to do as much now. He might have it in him now that he is healthy, but he now has a better supporting cast.
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:hmmm: Since when?
Chambers had 400 yards receiving Missing two games AGAIN.
Jackson looks promising, but so does Floyd...but even with Gates injured and not up to par they didn't explode like most felt they would.

Oh, back on tangent, I am high on Gates..he is #2 behind Witten
 
Miller said:
But to debate that his fantasy numbers have not gradually declined over the last couple year from his peak season of 04 & 05 seems to be arguing against facts....
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04 & 05 - about 12 ypc average
06 & 07 - 13 ypc average

His numbers went down because of the upgrades around him. Rivers came into his own and the WRs were upgraded.

Despite the team around him improving Gates continued to be an elite TE. The only "dip" from the elite status was last year when injuries affected him for an extended period.

If you are anticipating him becoming the fantasy impact player he was in the 04-05 seasons the rest of the team has to take a step backwards and I do not think that will happen. It appears you are limiting your assessment of his gradual decline on his reception totals. He will continue to be an elite TE but the reality of him and LT no longer being the teams entire offense will prevent him from hitting the mid/upper 80's for receptions.
 
These are all great reasons for the decline.....but if you are trying to say his numbers have not declined just b/c his ypc did not decline that you are really reaching.....last time I checked I don't get any fantasy points for ypc.....

There are many reasons for his decline, the question remains can he bounce back, and if he can, to what level? His 06-07 level, or 04-05? Or somewhere in between?

Sounds like were on the same page and both expect his to get back to his 06-07 levels, though I still feel he may be able to surpass even them if he's fully healthy.

Cooley Cadets said:
04 & 05 - about 12 ypc average
06 & 07 - 13 ypc average

His numbers went down because of the upgrades around him. Rivers came into his own and the WRs were upgraded.

Despite the team around him improving Gates continued to be an elite TE. The only "dip" from the elite status was last year when injuries affected him for an extended period.

If you are anticipating him becoming the fantasy impact player he was in the 04-05 seasons the rest of the team has to take a step backwards and I do not think that will happen. It appears you are limiting your assessment of his gradual decline on his reception totals. He will continue to be an elite TE but the reality of him and LT no longer being the teams entire offense will prevent him from hitting the mid/upper 80's for receptions.
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Miller said:
While still performing as a top tier TE, he has not been that elite presence and difference maker at the TE position. Injuries have slowed him down and he just has not been the same dominant force.
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Seems you want to argue with me today for the sake of arguing. I have merely maintained that he has continued to be an elite presence and is still a difference maker at the TE position. The fact that the team does not have to rely on him to demonstrate this every week does not change the impact he has on the field.

When healthy he has consistently shown he is still the same dominant force - the reason his ypc was brought up since you were focusing only on his receptions to gauge his performance.
 
Phicinfan said:
:hmmm: Since when?
Chambers had 400 yards receiving Missing two games AGAIN.
Jackson looks promising, but so does Floyd...but even with Gates injured and not up to par they didn't explode like most felt they would.
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VJax had an awesome season last year. Looks promising and is already delivering.

11th in receiving yards last year. This nearly doubled his 07 production. I'd call that exploding.
 
Cooley Cadets said:
Seems you want to argue with me today for the sake of arguing. I have merely maintained that he has continued to be an elite presence and is still a difference maker at the TE position. The fact that the team does not have to rely on him to demonstrate this every week does not change the impact he has on the field.

When healthy he has consistently shown he is still the same dominant force - the reason his ypc was brought up since you were focusing only on his receptions to gauge his performance.
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Funny....I thought the same things as you.....WE AGREE HERE.....

But you are trying to argue something that I am not. I just made a factual statement that his fantasy numbers have been in a state of decline. You just can't argue that fact, sorry, it's the truth. And I NEVER focused on receptions....please find where I did.....waiting....waiting....OK, let's not state I did things I didn't...cool? Now, what i did state is that his fantasy numbers declined and focused on his fantasy numbers over the last 5 seasons...why? Because that is what this thread is about, will be rebound to the top of the TE mountain. Never have I focused on one stat, just the overall performance which turns into fantasy points, that's all I care about.

So I believe you are the one that is trying to ague with anything I say just to pick an argument. If you really do not think he fantasy numbers have declined then fine.....to each their own, I don't care. Guess we'll have to agree to disagree.....just don't see how anyone can make that assessment....

Let's just move on, and get back on target in this thread.
 
I think it's highly possible that Gates decline has a lot to do with Rivers finding some new trustworthy targets.

When you look back at the years when Gates was a dominant force, there was no one else in the passing game for the QB to go to. With the emergence of Vincent Jackson, and even others at WR, Gates isn't the only option anymore.
 
ExperiencedRookie said:
I think it's highly possible that Gates decline has a lot to do with Rivers finding some new trustworthy targets.

When you look back at the years when Gates was a dominant force, there was no one else in the passing game for the QB to go to. With the emergence of Vincent Jackson, and even others at WR, Gates isn't the only option anymore.
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Thank you. That is the point I was trying to make when I began addressing the fact that it was not Gates decline as Miller now wants to re-define in fantasy reference subterfuge.

Miller said:
Will he once again rise to the top, or will he continue his gradual slide?
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Phicinfan said:
:hmmm: Since when?
Chambers had 400 yards receiving Missing two games AGAIN.
Jackson looks promising, but so does Floyd...but even with Gates injured and not up to par they didn't explode like most felt they would.

Oh, back on tangent, I am high on Gates..he is #2 behind Witten
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Last year was the first year he missed two games and last year was the first year he was under 677 yards. Jackson did breakthrough, and I bet that was due to the double on Chambers initially, if not all season. I did not realize how down Chambers numbers were, but i still feel he and Jackson are a formidable combo. Chambers still had 6 td's last year.
 
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