Rbs - are they worth the 2nd big contract

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Okay, as we just heard in the news thread - Carolina has extended Christian McCaffrey to a 4 year deal for $64 million. Please note, this is an extension. He has completed 3 years on his rookie deal, so the first two years of this deal will be the last two of his initial contract - so cap hit may not be as bad. However, that means by the time he starts hitting the $16 million a season, he will have 5 years in(actually he will be making the $16 million a year up front....but with the signing bonus and such). Needless to say this makes some sense - as he is a HUGE part of the team, and rumors were flying he was talking sitting out off season for new deal. He was the first Rb to reach over 1000 yards rushing and receiving in one year since the 80's I believe, so he has earned some money. But do these contracts really pay out? Usually no they don't. Just look at Bell(who went FA after years of FT $$$$), Gurley in LA and you get an idea of how these things go.

Lets look at who else may be looking at big deals soon.....

Derrick Henry Rb Ten - He got FTed this year, as his rookie deal ran out. Had a HUGE season last year, but other than that hasn't been the main cog in the offense - current cost with tag $10+ million
Kenyon Drake Rb Ari
- Got signed to a short deal, and then got the Transition Tag this year and will cost $8 million this year
Aaron Jones Rb GB - will cost $2.1 million this year, on last year of his deal - Steal here
Marlon Mack Rb Ind - on the last year of his rookie deal - cost ????
James Conner Rb Pit - on last year of his deal as well - but has missed some significant game time due to injury
Dalvin Cook Rb Min - is on the third year of his rookie deal - but missed significant time
Alvin Kamara Rb N.O. - again on 3rd year of deal - but he is really interesting. Had he repeated his rookie year, I think this would have been a real conversation, but last year he dropped off and now some wonder if he will get a new deal or not with the Saints
Joe Mixon Rb Cin - on third year of his rookie deal - has shown flashes and could help carry the rookie Qb this year
Leonard Fournette Rb Jac - On the 4th year of his rookie deal, and some wonder if the team will exercise his option year.
Other Rbs moving toward the 3rd year of deal......
Saquon Barkley Rb NYG
Nick Chubb Rb Cle
Ronald Jones Rb TB
- betting he won't get new deal....
Phillip Lindsey Rb Den - undrafted so no option year
Chris Carson Rb Sea - has been a huge lift to the offense - but keeps getting dinged up
Sony Michel Rb N.E. - had a great rookie year, then knee concerns has dropped his use....

So which is best? IMO what Tennessee and Arizona is doing is the way to go. Most Rbs that are drafted in the first round will have 5 years of use for the most part before a new deal kicks in (assuming teams use the option year). Those drafted in later rounds will have 4. Again, the average life span of an NFL Rb is 4-5 years. That is a TON of wear and tear on most starting Rbs.

Where it becomes different to me is say a Kamara who splits most of his time so his wear and tear is managed. Lindsey may fall there as well, but who knows what Denver is thinking there.

But looking at Cook, Mack Fournette, Carson, Michel all have had some injuries, and most have had issues repeating early success.....so no way do you extend for long term yes?
 

efactor

Coming at you
Gonna have to disagree with you on this one my friend.

His skill set is unique in the game right now. He’s a RB and a true receiver, not just a RB that catches some passes. Doesn’t come off the field. Granted, that may cause a shorter shelf life but he is at the age where he should be effective for the duration of the contract barring injury.

I just think it’s funny how guys like OBJ and even Sammy Watkins have similar contracts but nobody seems to think they were overpaid. Bucker just got 21 million a year and while he is an excellent player, he is not Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox elite. Nobody is calling him overpaid. I just think undervaluing someone with McCaffreys skill set because he is a RB is short sighted. If he was a WR who just had a 1200 yard season, nobody would be saying he is overpaid.
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
I'd imagine the NFL brass views them that way because the majority of elite RB's are washed up by 28 years of age where many WR's keep going at an elite status until their upper 30's and beyond. No doubt in my mind that CMC will not be turning out these elite numbers for another 13 years.
 

efactor

Coming at you
I'd imagine the NFL brass views them that way because the majority of elite RB's are washed up by 28 years of age where many WR's keep going at an elite status until their upper 30's and beyond. No doubt in my mind that CMC will not be turning out these elite numbers for another 13 years.
Very true, but even if he plays out the contract, he will only be 29. Kind of hard to look beyond 5 years in today's NFL with salary cap and free agency.

Also, very few receivers are "elite" until until their upper 30's and beyond. 😎

I get the concern about RB injuries, but a guy like McCaffrey deserves to be paid more than the Sammy Watkins of the world. I mean Hunter friggin Henry just got 10.5 for one season. Decent player but certainly not elite.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
You both are smoking rope. This is 6 years, 2 years of his rookie deal(1 option year) and four more years post that. All of that where he is getting 350+ touches a year. He will NOT still be producing like last year the entire contract
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
No it does not, it was an extension keeping the last two years of his rookie deal
 

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
For a RB to truly be worth it, they must be more than a RB whose usage that doesn't equal that of a typical RB. CMac does fit that bill. His duel usage not only increases production capital, but it can also serve to decrease wear and tear.

Now not saying he is definitely the exception, but he does fit the mold.
 

Walter34

Well-Known Member
A closer look at the contract details and it isn't as bad as it seems (as usual) - Christian McCaffrey

He will count 33M against the cap over the next 3 years (2020 - 2022) - 11M is good value for these prime years.

Then they could potentially release him in 2023 with an 8M dead cap #

This seems to be a similar structure and outs to Ezekiel's deal
 
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