Jordy Nelson's value?

[gruntbusters]

Can someone shed some light on the GB passing game please? I'm in a position to make a run in my division, but the other coach that can beat me just made a trade for Witten which obviously could impact Romo (my QB). I have a coach willing to discuss a deal that would send H Nicks in exchange for J Nelson, but I haven't been following GB all that closely. What is the status of Jennings and does he kill Nelson's value when he comes back? Is Nelson a lock to play a role similar to Cruz in NY? The coach I'm trying to compete with owns Rodgers, which is why I'm considering it.

I think that Nicks is obviously more talented and when healthy is an elite top 5 WR. But the problem is that he can't stay healthy which is impacting his dynasty value. Nelson is currently WR6 in our PPR league averaging 18 pts per game but a lot of that is due to the Jennings injury.

Thoughts?

 

[mudloggerone]

Jennings is in real trouble and may be looking at surgery and missing another 4 weeks. Nelson missed practice today with a hammy. His over all value will not be crushed by a return of Jennings if that ever happens. Nicks is a true stud when he's healthy and he is only a few days from that point.

 

[Phicinfan]

Can someone shed some light on the GB passing game please? I'm in a position to make a run in my division, but the other coach that can beat me just made a trade for Witten which obviously could impact Romo (my QB). I have a coach willing to discuss a deal that would send H Nicks in exchange for J Nelson, but I haven't been following GB all that closely. What is the status of Jennings and does he kill Nelson's value when he comes back? Is Nelson a lock to play a role similar to Cruz in NY? The coach I'm trying to compete with owns Rodgers, which is why I'm considering it.

I think that Nicks is obviously more talented and when healthy is an elite top 5 WR. But the problem is that he can't stay healthy which is impacting his dynasty value. Nelson is currently WR6 in our PPR league averaging 18 pts per game but a lot of that is due to the Jennings injury.

Thoughts?

Not sure I agree with you point of view.

first of all, Jordy had a slow start, and in part I think that was due to Jennings getting hurt, and neither Jones or Cobb stepping up and taking coverage from Nelson. Now Cobb has exploded, and Jones has learned to catch, which only frees up the passing game and thud Jordy more. I also agree that a healthy Jennings doesn't hurt Jordy at all.

Now, for Nicks.....I don't buy it. For all his "talent" he can't stay on the field. He never should have come back as soon as he tried, and my bet is even if he is "healthy", he will only get hurt again due to lack of contact and conditioning. I think he might have a big game or two, but I in no way would want to have to rely on him for my team in the playoffs.

 

[gruntbusters]

That was kind of my point. Nicks is elite talent when healthy...but that's the key..."healthy". I traded away Andre Johnson a few years ago because of that same issue. He is also true feast or famine once on the field. I am leary that Nicks can be that guy long term healthwise. I'd like to take advantage of Mudd's thinking, and capitalize on his value now. Even the coach I'm dealing with is concerned with Nick's health.

The issue here is that Rodgers spreads the ball around so much. Is Nelson the WR to own in GB? Do I just sit tight, maybe start Weeden or Schaub on the week I play my nemesis, in addition to both Nicks and Cruz? Long term (think Dynasty) am I okay with Nelson as my WR instead of Nicks?

 

[mudloggerone]

Long term I like Jordy. Jennings will be out of Green Bay next year or at least that's what I think.

 

[Coachnorm]

I like Phicinfans analysis of GBs start. I went back to last years SOFFL leagues to check up. I already knew that Jordy was better than Jennings last year. But Cruz was better than Nicks " Nicks is obviously more talented and when healthy is an elite top 5 WR" made me think. Last year, CJ #1... Welker #2... Cruz #3... Jordy #4.

Nicks has great potential and sounds like he is ready to come back but foot injuries (with a side of knee) in WRs make me nervous. But I am old and pretty conservative FF wise. You have put some thought into this and feel that you have to make a move projected on beating your old nemisis down the road/later in the season. Me I would hang on to Jordy to make sure I did make that later showdown. But every situation is different, how are the rest of you WRs?.... Can you hold up if Nicks takes a few games to get up to speed? (see Phicinfans comments)

 

[Coachnorm]

Long term I like Jordy. Jennings will be out of Green Bay next year or at least that's what I think.

Same sort of vibes going on here.

 

[gruntbusters]

Thanks Coach...I'm actually considering shipping Nicks away to obtain Mr Nelson. So yeah, sounds like you all are favoring having Nelson on a dynasty squad than Nicks at this time. And I can't say that I don't agree, I just wanted to be sure in case I was missing something.

 

[gruntbusters]

Well I got the official offer tonight...Jordy Nelson straight up for H Nicks. Am I selling low on Nicks?

 

[deuce4321]

I would take it.

 

[Coachnorm]

One thing to consider is Jordy is a Game Time decision this week.

 

[gizzil]

Probably won't play this week, but probably will be a top scorer for the rest of the year... I might do it

 

[gruntbusters]

Well it's dynasty...so I'm hoping he'll be a top scorer for a few year. I know I can get better value for Nicks with another coach but this one has Nelson who will help me offset Aaron Rodgers points in my game coming up with this guy. It's strictly strategy, not value. I am probably giving up some value if Nicks stays healthy and produces like a top 5 wr going forward.

My only concern is giving up too much to win now....I'd like to think J Nelson is a top 10 WR the rest of the way and hopefully for years to come. Does he have that kind of talent? Does Cobb out perform him kind of like what Cruz did to Nicks?

 

[Coachnorm]

Phicinfan was imparting some good insight and it is worth another look.

Jordy had a slow start, and in part I think that was due to Jennings getting hurt, and neither Jones or Cobb stepping up and taking coverage from Nelson. Now Cobb has exploded, and Jones has learned to catch, which only frees up the passing game and thus Jordy more.

The Packers and Rodgers got off to a slow start. Rodgers was playing more like a 2TD a game QB, which by most fantasy standards is great but the Potential with Rodgers is so much more. Jordy struggled a bit as nobody else was taking defensive coverage away from him and he was the focal point of Ds. Now Randall Cobb has stepped up his game, and if you look it has not hurt Jory Nelson, it has helped. We often worry that increased production by a second string WR will syphon stats from the main WR and this can be true with teams that have lesser QBs. But this is Rodgers we are talking about and now that Cobb is stealing attention away from Jordy it not only makes Jordy's job easier it makes Rodgers job easier. Rodgers has geared up from the 2TD QB we saw early in the season to the 4 TD guy we know he can be. So Cobb doing better is not a subtraction from other WRs, it's a huge increase in the entire passing production pie, he is creating more production in the entire GB passing game.

And looking at QBs, I love Eli Manning, he is exciting and we all love to see him play and his big plays to Cruz and Nicks late in game is some of the best Football we can hope to see. If I wanted to give the ball to any QB late in the 4th quarter trying to come from behind it is Eli. But the counterpoint to that is that while Eli is the best in the last minutes of the game the fact that he is coming back a lot also means 2/3 of a game of just average QB play.

Then, while the Giants aren't a run first team they are pretty effective when they do divert attention to the run. The Packers really don't care if they run at all.