Axe Elf's Sleepers & Stinkers: Week 4

[Axe Elf]

QBs

Sleepers

Ben Roethlisberger
The Pittsburgh offense gets a boost with Le’Veon Bell returning this week, hopefully to give the ground game some credibility and take some pressure off of the pass rush and coverage. Roethlisberger is developing timing and chemistry with Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery have lent themselves to an effective three-headed receiver corps lately. Heath Miller will be starting his second game back from injury, and adds another solid red zone target and dump-off option. On top of all this, Minnesota is 28th in the league against the pass, allowing 300/3 to Jay Cutler and even more to first-time starters Brian Hoyer and Josh Gordon last week. Precipitation is not forecast for London until Monday, but Roethlisberger should rain fire on the Vikings’ secondary to the tune of 325/3/1.

Brian Hoyer
I guess I’m drinking the Kool-Aid here, just because Cleveland has shown that they are 100% committed to what they are doing--whatever that might be--and right now, that is throwing the ball 50+ times per game. Now Cincinnati isn’t Minnesota, but they’re not completely shutting down passing attacks, either, allowing basically 250 yards and a TD or two per game to the likes of Cutler and Roethlisberger. They have pulled down at least one INT per game, though, so that tempers my expectations a little. If your league only subtracts one point for INTs, I would start Hoyer with confidence, and if you’re looking to replace Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton for their Week 4 bye, you could do worse on the waiver wire. Hoyer should have the most yardage of any Bengals’ foe yet, 285, with 3 TDs and 2 INTs.

EJ Manuel
With Spiller gimpy and the Ravens MUCH better at stopping the run than the pass (#4 vs #21), head coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will need to abandon their run-first scheme and call on the developing rookie QB to throw into the secondary early and often. I’m not expecting fireworks, but 275/2 would be a startable outing with 30 yards rushing--and he’s averaged 270/1 with 27 yards rushing the last two weeks anyway.


Stinkers

Andrew Luck
Here’s a little newsflash--Jacksonville has the 9th-best pass defense in the NFL! That’s not because they’re so good, though; that’s because no team needs to throw against them in the second half. That should be the case again this week, to the chagrin of Luck owners. Whatever Luck gets, he will mostly be done by halftime--I’ll put the O/U at 175/1. On the upside, Luck has only 1 INT on the season, so that category should remain unused this week.

Russell Wilson
I don’t usually call games, just players, but I’m calling the upset here. Seattle goes on the road to face another great defense stinging from their loss to Baltimore last week. Seattle may be a little complacent after facing the likes of Carolina and Jacksonville, and with apologies to San Francisco, Houston is likely the best team they have faced yet. Anyway, with Houston #2 against the pass, Wilson averaging 171 yards per game over the last two weeks, and being rather short in stature for throwing over JJ Swatt, this would be an excellent week to fade Wilson if you have other options. 200 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

Sam Bradford
Bradford isn’t considered among the elite QBs in the league, so some may criticize my inclusion of him as a Stinker. Still, he is averaging 2 TDs and almost 300 yards per game, and if that’s what you’re thinking for this week, then you have another think coming. The 49ers are 8th in the league against the pass--and that’s after facing some of the better QBs around in Rodgers, Wilson and Luck. San Francisco is hungry for a win, and that’s going to start with shutting down the strength of the Rams’ offense--Sam Bradford. 225/1/1

 

[Axe Elf]

RBs

Sleepers

Daryl Richardson
That said about Bradford, the 49ers are giving up an average of 23.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs--including Ahmad Bradshaw, of all people, and Eddie Lacy in his first NFL game. Hopefully Richardson won’t pull another disappearing act this week, because he will be leaving 110 combined yards and his first TD of the season on the table if he does.

Arian Foster
As I said, I think Houston wins this game, and it will be partly because they get back to dancing with who brung ‘em--a steady diet of Arian Foster. Foster a Sleeper? Well, yeah, when you have 1 TD on the season and average 63 yards per game--and you’re facing the Seahawks--you can be a sleeper. As good as Seattle is against the pass, they fare a little worse against the run--only 12th overall, and that has been against Carolina, Jacksonville and San Francisco, none of which have exactly been tearing up the turf. The Texans will be motivated as a team, Andre Johnson is banged up, Foster has had time now to knock off the rust after sitting out the preseason, he’s personally motivated to make a statement to keep Ben Tate as the #2 RB on the team, and he’s due for a breakout game. Foster will have his first 100 yard game of the season and score twice.

Darren McFadden
He only had 9 rushing yards against Denver on Monday night, and he only had 48 rushing yards against Indianapolis in the season opener. So what’s to like here? Well, no Terrelle Pryor, for one thing, the 129 yards he piled up against Jacksonville for another, and most importantly, what has been the Golden Rule for this fantasy season--start any RB facing the Washington Redskins. Absolutely gosh darn right. 140 yards and a TD are on the horizon.

Le’Veon Bell
As bad as Minnesota has been against the pass, they are also 21st in the league against the run--and that’s after Cleveland rushed for next-to-nothing against them (McGahee had 8 carries for 9 yards and Ogbannaya had 2 carries for 23 yards). With the Vikings having to game-plan against the suddenly potent passing attack of the Steelers, it’s a great time for Le’Veon Bell to make his NFL debut. Even if his yardage is a little limited on his first time out, he should get every opportunity to punch in the red zone TDs--and the Steelers should get there frequently. 75 yards and 2 TDs.

Ahmad Bradshaw
Jacksonville is last in the league against the run--mainly because that’s all opposing teams need to do to beat them--and there will be no need for the Colts to risk throwing injury-prone Trent Richardson at them 30 times. Bradshaw has an opportunity for his second 100/1 week in a row.

David Wilson
As much as he has been in the doghouse, he’s still the best the Giants have to offer, and he was basically the only RB to touch the ball against Carolina (Jacobs had 2 carries, Scott had 1). With a struggling passing game facing the #5 pass defense, New York will have to try to exploit the Chiefs’ 25th-ranked run defense. If Wilson can get into the secondary once or twice, he could end up with a startable outing of 80 total yards and a TD.

Bernard Pierce
The rumblings are that Rice will try to return this week, but even if he does, the 30th-ranked run defense of the Bills should see plenty of Bernard “piercing” them for his second satisfactory outing in a row--70 combined yards and a score.


Stinkers

Chris Johnson
As expected by anyone who follows the Elf, CJ2tds hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, and I wouldn’t look for that to change this week against the surprisingly 6th-ranked Jets’ run defense. Let’s review. They allowed 65 yards to Doug Martin in the opener (2.7 yards per carry), and they haven’t allowed a rushing TD in the last ten quarters of football, since Martin punched one in before halftime. They allowed Ridley and Blount to combine for only 51 yards versus New England (2.55 yards per carry) in Week 2. Fred Jackson busted one 59 yard scamper against them last week, but otherwise he and Spiller combined for 23 yards (1.44 yards per carry). Johnson is kind of infamous for his bouts of single digit fantasy outings, and though he hasn’t hit double digits yet this season, it’s a good time to look for a 40 yard super-Stinker this week.

Marshawn Lynch
In addition to being #2 against the pass, Houston is #9 against the run. With Wilson being contained, Lynch will have a hard time getting on track as well. Lynch has failed to score in two of the three games so far; make it three out of four, with 60 combined yards.

Buffalo RBs
The Ravens are allowing less than 75 yards per game on the ground as the #4 rush defense--and that’s even after facing Houston’s two-headed rushmonster last week. If CJ Spiller doesn’t play, Fred Jackson has the best chance of being startable by getting the lion’s share of those 75 yards. If Spiller does play, then they end up splitting the meager yardage totals, with Jackson still getting the bigger half, but neither of them really being startable. Jackson also has the better chance of the two at dunking in a TD, but even then it would barely put him in double digits. I see about 14 fantasy points being split two ways here.

Doug Martin
A lot of people are looking for Martin to have a big game this week, with the QB change in Tampa Bay. I’m having a hard time seeing how that helps Martin. Arizona was already #3 against the run--now they can feel comfortable leaving Peterson and Mathieu in man coverage of Jackson and Williams (heck, neither receiver has even practiced yet this week to develop any rapport with their new QB), and stack 8 in the box to pressure Glennon and contain Martin. The Bucs were having trouble moving the ball enough to give Martin scoring opportunities already (1 TD so far); I think that problem was just exacerbated. Martin as Glennon’s dump-off security blanket? Maybe, but he only has four receptions on the season thus far. 75 combined yards is Martin’s ceiling here, with no score.

LeSean McCoy
All right, one more time. Denver is best in the league against the run. They allowed 9 yards on 12 carries to McFadden, 23 yards on 19 carries to the Giants’ RBBC, and 58 yards on 21 carries to Ravens Rice and Pierce. The Eagles will have to put the ball in the air to keep up with the Broncos’ offense, so McCoy should have his worst week of the season thus far--80 combined yards and no TD.

 

[Axe Elf]

WRs

Sleepers

Mohamed Sanu
Cleveland (read Joe Haden) has shut down opposing teams’ WR1s pretty effectively--but those teams’ WR2 has typically fared pretty well. In Week 1, the Dolphins’ leading WR was Brian Hartline, with 114 yards and a TD, while Mike Wallace was virtually shut out. For Baltimore, Torrey Smith was still the team’s leading receiver in yardage, but it was Marlon Brown who found the end zone, not Smith. Last week, the Vikings’ leading WR was Cordarrelle Patterson--although that isn’t saying much. Sanu’s production has improved in every game so far this season, from 19 yards to 40 yards to 68 yards, and he has a good chance to take another jump this week with 6 catches for 85 yards and a TD.

Davone Bess
The same theme holds true for WR2s facing the Bengals. Other than Brandon Marshall in Week 1, when Cutler thought he was the only receiver on the field, it has been Emmanuel Sanders, not Antonio Brown, who led the Steelers in Week 2, and it was Jordy Nelson, not Randall Cobb, who led the Packers in Week 3. With Bess taking over the WR2 role from Greg Little, and the Bengals sure to be keying on Josh Gordon this week, Bess has a chance to improve on the 7 receptions for 67 yards that he posted in Hoyer’s debut. Look for 8 catches, 90 yards and a score this week.

Alshon Jeffery
As Cutler has learned to read his progressions past Brandon Marshall, Jeffery’s production has steadily increased to a season-high in targets (8), a season-high in receptions (7) and a season-high in yardage (51) last week. Jeffery is due for a TD one of these weeks; I’ll call it against the Lions--6 catches for 60 yards and the score.

Santonio Holmes
Holmes got off to a slow start by missing the preseason as he completed his recovery from a serious Lisfranc injury. As Holmes has gotten healthier and developed the rapport with Geno Smith that I expected would form with Jeremy Kerley, Holmes’ production has improved from 1 reception on 3 targets for 13 yards in Week 1 to 3 receptions on 6 targets for 51 yards in Week 2 to 5 receptions on 10 targets for 154 yards and a TD in Week 3. Holmes is a serious threat for another 100 yard, TD game on 7 catches this week, as he has clearly emerged as Smith’s go-to guy.

Eddie Royal
Phillip Rivers went away from Eddie Royal last week--and the whole offense fell apart. Rivers had his worst week of the season, Royal had his worst week of the season, and the Chargers lost a game they really could have and should have won. At home against the 22nd-ranked pass defense of Dallas this week, Rivers should go back to his money receiver for 5 catches, 70 yards and a TD.

Rod Streater
Washington has a vulnerable defense (31st against both the run and the pass), but likely starter Matt Flynn doesn’t have the arm strength to take advantage of Denarius Moore’s deep speed--so that leaves 7 catches for 90 yards and a TD to Streater.


Stinkers

Mike Wallace
One of the defensive surprises this year is that New Orleans is no longer a patsy against the pass. In fact, they are currently ranked #4 against opposing receivers, and that’s even after playing the well-hyped air attacks of Arizona and Atlanta. Miami’s passing game has been a pretty smoothly operating machine so far, but Wallace has been the cog most likely to jam when facing adversity. A second consecutive stinker of 2 catches for 30 scoreless yards wouldn’t surprise me.

Denarius Moore
Of all the people hoping that Terrelle Pryor plays this week, Denarius Moore should be sacrificing more fatted calves at the Altar of Concussion Protocols than anyone. With Pryor in the lineup, Moore could feast against the Redskins’ leaky defense. Unfortunately, Flynn will likely get the start, and Flynn’s noodle arm isn’t compatible with Moore’s speed. Moore was a hot waiver wire pickup this week after his long score against Denver, but it’s going to be more like a long drought this week--3 catches and 45 yards with no TD if it is indeed Flynn at the helm.

Andre Johnson
It looks like he’ll play, but he’s banged up with a sore leg and a week removed from a concussion scare--and he’s facing Richard Sherman and the Seahawks. I still think Houston wins this game, but it won’t be because of AJ1.5k. 4 catches and 50 yards might be too much to ask for--and of course he never gets TDs anyway.

Larry Fitzgerald
I don’t really want my starting WR to be limited with a hamstring injury to begin with, much less vacationing on Revis Island for the game. I think Arizona wins this game on defense, anyway, and Fitz won’t be needed as much more than a decoy. Give him 4 catches for 55 yards, no TD, and some much-needed rest.

Reggie Wayne
As previously discussed for Andrew Luck, the Colts shouldn’t need to throw the ball to beat Jacksonville--which is the main reason why the Jaguars are 9th against the pass. I hate to see only 5 catches for 60 scoreless yards from a guy I will be starting in many leagues this week, but there it is.

AJ Green
Here is the flip side of my Sanu sleeper call; the Haden factor limits Green to his third frustrating outing in a row--5 catches for 70 yards, no score.

 

[Axe Elf]

TEs

Sleepers

Charles Clay
I already discussed the Saints’ surprising ability to take WRs out of a game plan, which may end up leaving Clay available in the seam. Clay is averaging 5 receptions and 70 yards a game, and he has also lined up as a FB on the goalline in two separate games, running in one score already. Look for him to hit his averages and score on Monday Night Football.

Heath Miller
Miller should see more plays this week, after holding up well both as a blocker and a receiver in his Week 3 debut. With the Steelers’ offense suddenly getting healthier and more productive, Miller should catch 5 balls for 60 yards and a TD against the porous Vikings’ defense in London.

Brent Celek
Denver’s already 30th-ranked pass defense has been doing a poor job of containing opposing TEs. Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson combined for 8 catches and 100 yards in the opener (and haven’t done much of anything since). Brandon Myers had 6 catches for 74 yards in Week 2 (and hasn’t done much of anything since). Even unknown Michael Rivera had a couple of catches from the TE position for the Raiders on Monday night. With Philadelphia needing every weapon they have to keep pace with the Broncos, Celek should catch a TD on his way to 50 yards on 4 catches.

Brandon Pettigrew
Who has led the Lions in receptions over the first three weeks? Nate Burleson, who is now out of the lineup. Ryan Broyles is a hot commodity this week in his absence, but I don’t think Broyles can pick up the entire slack there. Pettigrew, meanwhile, is now 3rd on the team in targets, behind Megatron and Joique Bell. Chicago has not been particularly effective in defending opposing TEs (Eifert/Gresham combined for 10 catches, Rudolph went for 43 and a TD, and even Heath Miller did ok in his limited duty), so Pettigrew has a window of opportunity here to catch 4 balls for 45 yards and a score this week.

Garrett Graham
After the Seahawks take away an injured Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins on the other side, and leading TE target Owen Daniels, who’s left? Occasional TD target Garrett Graham, who should complete a trifecta of sorts this week by catching his 3rd TD of the season as one of his 3 catches for 30 yards.


Stinkers

Coby Fleener
The Colts’ passing game takes the week off against Jacksonville, and Fleener will be blocking for the yards being ground out in the rushing attack instead of providing a dumpoff target for Luck--2 receptions, 20 scoreless yards.

Brandon Myers
The Giants’ passing game is in shambles at the moment, and Arrowhead Stadium isn’t the best place to get healthy. Myers’ production has decreased in each successive week this season, and he shouldn’t get more than 3 catches for 40 yards against the Chiefs, who have held Jason Witten and Brent Celek (and the TE-less Jaguars) in check already this season.

Tony Gonzalez
I’m beginning to wonder if maybe Gonzo shouldn’t have just remained retired this season. He has looked slow and been ineffective thus far, even when Atlanta could have used him stepping up in the absence of Steven Jackson. With only 1 TD, coming in the first game of the season, Tony hasn’t topped 4 receptions or 40 yards yet. That probly won’t change against the Patriots’ 6th-ranked pass defense, but this is my most likely stinker to be ruined by a red zone TD. Other than that--4 catches and 35 yards is the call.

Vernon Davis
I hate it when guys try to come back too early from a hamstring injury. Since he practiced this week, he will probly try to play Thursday night, which means that his owners will probly start him--and then he will probly suck from only limited action--and in a worst-case scenario, aggravate his injury and sideline himself for another month. For the sake of my DraftMaster Leagues, I really hope Davis exceeds the 3 catches and 30 empty yards I am steeling myself to expect from him--and most importantly, stays in the whole game without a setback.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Outstanding post! Love reading these. Just simple good analysis and none of the extra junk.

1 question though...what's with the slam dunk on an open hoop pick of Coby Fleener for a stinker? He has 14 fantasy points through 3 games and 12 of them came in 1 game. That's like picking DaRel Scott as a stinker.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

You know what would be an interesting exercise??

You pick a lineup composed of all sleeper players of your choosing Fan Duel style, and put them up against a lineup selected by someone else of all stinker players and see what the outcome would be.

Just a fun thought

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Nailed the Bradford pick. Not sure he qualifies for the stinker category. Sure, he's played a couple nice games, but I don't think anyone is expecting that from him weekly. Nevertheless, a good pick.

Richardson was a total brick.
Vernon escapes stinker status with a TD even though you were picking on the injured guy here.

 

[Deacon]

Well your 1-2 so far! Hit on Bradford, miss on Richardson and I already threw in the miss on Shady McCoy (did that dude mistreat your sister or something?).

 

[mudloggerone]

Funny line Deacon.

 

[Effing Bored]

Ahmad Bradshaw
Jacksonville is last in the league against the run--mainly because that’s all opposing teams need to do to beat them--and there will be no need for the Colts to risk throwing injury-prone Trent Richardson at them 30 times. Bradshaw has an opportunity for his second 100/1 week in a row.

Ouch! Richardson primary RB with Bradshaw out due to a neck injury. This is Richardson's chance to prove himself.

 

[derringer007]

Your week by week sleeper/stinker threads are must reads.

Cant see McFadden doing anything spectacular this or any other week moving forward, this is a contract year and he's not getting it done.

I like Marcel Reece over D-Mac in PPR with Flynn under center

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Cant see McFadden doing anything spectacular this or any other week moving forward, this is a contract year and he's not getting it done.

Huh?? McFadden is the #8 fantasy RB. What more can he does he need to do?

Not to mention the fact that this is probably the best matchup on the whole schedule

 

[cctekguy]

With Pryor out, DMac is the only running threat. Easier to stop 1 than 2.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

This week looks like it might show the best results to date in this series.

 

[gizzil]

Derringer has seen this movie before... McFadden in street clothes, yet AGAIN. Dude is not meant to play this game obviously. I feel sorry for people who drafted him. Again. Except for the people in my leagues, of course

 

[German CTL]

Why'd Axe Elf get banned??? Seems like a bitch move to me......

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Why'd Axe Elf get banned??? Seems like a bitch move to me......

He got banned??

Oh well, serves him right. Guy is an enormous jackass. Typical pot stirrer.

That being said, I always kind of felt a Batman and the Joker type relationship between him and the entire board.

"Kill you?!?! I don't want to kill you. No. What would I do without you?"