Stat Projections

[tblGoBlue]

How do THEY make projections?
Does anyone know how projections are calculated? I see different sites offering projected stats and I want to know how they come up with these stats. What factors do they use to determine projections?


How would YOU make projections?
If you were going to make your own statistical projections, how would you calculate them? What variables/criteria would you use to determine your projections?

I'm not talking about rankings... I'm talking about the actual numbers that they project.
To give you a little background, I'm a math guy and am thinking about playing around with some statistics and other information about players to come up with a formula for projections. Any and all input is appreciated.

 

[WesDawg]

Age, situation, role, supporting cast, injury-prone, upside, schedule strength, resume'... With me, I take a ton of things into consideration but the Eyeball Test is my ultimate guideline.

 

[Sgt John]

THEY have an army of assholes on staff charting EVERYTHING about the player from the freshness of his last bowel movement to the cup size of the girl he took to senior prom.

WE look at the on field performance, do the research, and use common sense judgment.

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

Yup, Common sense eyeball ranking here

 

[tblGoBlue]

**Title Post edited for clarification**

I'm not talking about rankings, but statistical projections.

 

[WesDawg]

That's also what I was referring to. I take the aforementioned items into consideration and try to craft a rudimentary per-game average that seems realistic, then multiply by 16. Or maybe slightly less if a guy is particularly fragile.

 

[Sgt John]

yes Tom, thats what I was talking about as well

 

[tblGoBlue]

OK, so you each make your own projections and keep track of them but it's generally eyeballs, gut feelings, and common sense? Wow... impressive. Guess I've got a long way to go yet in my FF draft planning.

 

[Miller]

Good thread, seems like something like this comes up each year and starts the to project or not project thread.....Here's my take:

I do not do statical projections. Most of the sites that do them (note i stated most, not all) IMO simply toss out stats that they feel are in line with the ranking they have assigned to them. They look at most of the things I look at to do my rankings and tiers and assign yds and TD's to them....IMO, a waste of time. To do them right you have to look at everything, and even then it's guesswork taking too many variables into consideration. Not to mention if you start to look at some of the projections, they just don't add up, hence the simply plugging in numbers to fit their rankings opinion.

Instead of wasting your time on statistical projections my best advice is to do a lot of the same home work into what you expect from them this coming season and do a comprehensive personal ranking. In this, break the rankings into tiers so you know where your personal breakoff points are. I feel those who do this are better perpared then someone who tosses a bunch of numbers out there.

 

[Mike]

Not a fan of stats projections, however...

Things you need to look at are the last three years of stats, factor in personnel changes (of the entire team surrounding the player), injuries, age, any signs of gain or loss in production, grass or turf, strength of opponents (again, past three years). Also, any changes in coaching staff that may affect playing time, and the improvement and/or decline of the production of players surrounding each player.

When you boil all that down, you realize that it is virtually impossible to statistically rank a large list of players. For me, once you go through all of this and get it done, you basically have lots of pretty numbers out beside the "rankings" you already had. Some think having those numbers help, others don't. I fall into that "don't" category.