How Much Weight Does YPC Have in Your Opinion?

[WesDawg]

Other RBs who fit this pattern :
Shaun Alexander had 5.1 in 2005, 3.6 in 2006, then 3.5 in 2007 and was finished as an NFL RB.
Edge had 4.6 in 2004, 4.2 in 2005, and then 3.4 in 2006. He never got over 4.0 again although he did have a decent season yardage wise in 07. It was the end of his relevence.
Warrick Dunn had 5.1 in 2005, 4.0 in 2006, and 3.2 in 2007. Although he still played in 08, he was total junk.
Ahman Green went from 5.3 in 2003 to 4.5 in 2004 to 3.3 in 2005 and never returned to elite status.
Marshall Faulk went from 5.3 in 2001 to 4.5 in 2002 to 3.9 in 2003 and became a fantasy football nobody.
These are the cases where YPC really matters. For those of you who are doubters I challenge you to find a RB who saw his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive years who still found fantasy success following that drop.

I'll accept the challenge (sorta) and cite that all the guys you mentioned had either age issues, declining offensive lines/offensive situations, youngsters who eventually took their jobs, major injuries, new teams, or a combination of all 5.

And unless I'm really off-base here, neither of those guys' decline began when they were considered to be in their "prime". So again, taking the middle ground, possibly the YPC debate could be an indicator of when a formerly elite RB is exiting his productive time.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

And unless I'm really off-base here, neither of those guys' decline began when they were considered to be in their "prime". So again, taking the middle ground, possibly the YPC debate could be an indicator of when a formerly elite RB is exiting his productive time.

That is exactly what I was getting at.

I'm climbing onto my LT soapbox here in case you hadn't noticed.

Wes, in your response you gave 5 different things that may have been happening to cause the decline in YPC. How many of those is LT experiencing right now?

 

[WesDawg]

Wes, in your response you gave 5 different things that may have been happening to cause the decline in YPC. How many of those is LT experiencing right now?

Age: Yes
Offensive decline: No
Injuries: Yes
Trade: No
Designated replacement: No (Sorry, I don't consider Sproles in this context)

Unfortunately, I personally consider the 2 "No" areas far more critical than the 3 "yes" areas.

I do, however expect L.T. to have one more high-caliber fantasy season left in his tank before he's RB2/flex material. Only because like Faulk, his overall value hinges on much more than just his ballcarrying ability.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I do, however expect L.T. to have one more high-caliber fantasy season left in his tank before he's RB2/flex material. Only because like Faulk, his overall value hinges on much more than just his ballcarrying ability.

I gotcha. The fact that LT can pile on 400 yards receiving certainly helps his cause.

As far as going from being a stud to RB2/Flex material.. not a chance.

He's going to go from elite to nothing in the blink of an eye.

 

[WesDawg]

2009: RB1
2010: RB2/Flex
2011: Undraftable

Not exactly the blink of an eye, but I'm picking up what you're putting down. Dynasty owners take note.

 

[Phicinfan]

I gotcha. The fact that LT can pile on 400 yards receiving certainly helps his cause.

As far as going from being a stud to RB2/Flex material.. not a chance.

He's going to go from elite to nothing in the blink of an eye.

Normally I would agree with you. But in LT2s case...I won't. Why?

First the team has made no move to draft his replacement. I am with Wes here....and Sproles is a tool, a change of pace..not a replacement.

Second, they haven't added any real tools to the passing game to take carries away. Vincent looks solid, Gates hopefully can come back healthy...but rest is blah. With no real adds.

Third, if the team thought LT2 was washed up...they would not have spent the money they did. Ala Brees.

These three, and the pretty damn solid numbers he put up last year...while dinged up....tells me he has some tread left.

Now, if I am a dynasty owner...yep...I deal him...NOW while the value is still perceived. But in redraft...I will still target him if he falls past middle first round.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I think you guys might be missing what I'm preaching.

I'm using these other RBs as an example. In most cases with these guys, they completely fell off the map.

The 2 year YPC drop should really scare drafters.

It's really the only case where YPC grabs my attention.

LT impending demise deserves a thread all to itself....

 

[Cooley Cadets]

I challenge you to find a RB who saw his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive years who still found fantasy success following that drop.

Way to set the criteria at something your examples did not meet - how long is the average RB's career? Even so, how about Larry Johnson? Jamal Lewis? Willie Parker? Brian Westbrook?

Deuce McAllister and Michael Pittman came about as close as you can get.

Maurice Jones Drew should be dropping like a rock at the top of your rankings and Jerious Norwood farther down.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Way to set the criteria at something your examples did not meet - how long is the average RB's career? Even so, how about Larry Johnson? Jamal Lewis? Willie Parker? Brian Westbrook?

Deuce McAllister and Michael Pittman came about as close as you can.

Maurice Jones Drew should be dropping like a rock at the top of your rankings and Jerious Norwood farther down.

I'm not even sure what you're saying here.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

I'm not even sure what you're saying here.

I responded to your challenge, make of it what you will.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I responded to your challenge, make of it what you will.

You responded with questions and no stats at all.

I'll try to dissect your response as best as possible.

You asked what the average RB shelf life is. Well the NFLPA lists the average career of an NFL player at 4 years. This doesn't apply to a hall of famer like LT though. So I searched for the 10 greatest RBs of all time. Among them, the average career was 10 seasons. LT is entering his 9th.

Another relevent stat to that is how many touches among the greats. Of the 10 greatest NFL RBs the average amount of touches over a career is 3418. LT has 3167.

Now as far as all the players you listed followed by question marks. I'm not sure if you're claiming that these are players who saw their YPC drop and then returned to fantasy glory or what. Since that is what I was challenging, I'll assume that's what you're saying.

Larry Johnson saw his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive seasons. He has also been worthless since then.

Jamal Lewis was a really good answer. He actually did see his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive seasons. He experienced injury in both of those seasons, causing the drop in YPC, but he did return to some solid numbers. Good answer.

Willie Parker blew me away when I looked at his career stats. His YPC has dropped EVERY year of his career. Wow. Never had consecutive seasons of a 0.5 drop, but still very interesting.

Westbrook is another good answer. He had consecutive seasons of his YPC dropping by 0.5. His 3rd and 4th year in the league his numbers plummeted. He has since returned to greatness. Good one Cooley.

Deuce McCallister never experienced this drop, but his numbers did swing around alot.

Michael Pittman experienced this drop, but only at the end of his career when his numbers were just terrible.

MJD is an interesting case. He has nearly experienced this drop in his 1st 3 years in the league. It's easy to see that drop though when he started off at 5.7!

Norwood is the same way. Starts off at 6.0! These 2 players (MJD, Norwood) don't really count as they have been the RB2, are young in their careers, and haven't had a single season with more than 200 carries.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

You responded with questions and no stats at all.

You did not ask for stats you made is sound as though rebounding from a 2 year drop of .5 was something unheard of. It is not commonplace because like you said the average career is 4 years which means 1/2 of that time was spent in decline.

I'll try to dissect your response as best as possible.

Nothing to dissect you presented a challenge and I gave you some options to consider. If a player is good enough to have a long career your criteria is no more a valid benchmark than other stats.

Larry Johnson saw his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive seasons. He has also been worthless since then.

Your challenge was a RB who saw his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive years who still found fantasy success.

2005: 5.2 ypc
2006: 4.3
2007: 3.5
2008: 4.5 - over his 12 game season he did enjoy fantasy success. May not have been up to his previous standard but hardly worthless.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Your challenge was a RB who saw his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive years who still found fantasy success.

2005: 5.2 ypc
2006: 4.3
2007: 3.5
2008: 4.5 - over his 12 game season he did enjoy fantasy success. May not have been up to his previous standard but hardly worthless.

Do you consider 948 TOTAL yards and 5 TDs successful out of a RB who had an ADP of 2.04?

 

[Cooley Cadets]

Do you consider 948 TOTAL yards and 5 TDs successful out of a RB who had an ADP of 2.04?

I consider fantasy success as quite a different measurement than drafting success. He only played 12 games and yes he did have success over those 12 games.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I consider fantasy success as quite a different measurement than drafting success. He only played 12 games and yes he did have success over those 12 games.

You may do your best to seperate those 2, but when it boils down to it, the ADP matters.

If you're an LJ owner, he was likely your #1 RB selected. He left you scrambling for weeks 7-10 while he was injured. So right in the middle of bye week madness, your #1 RB was unavailable.

LJ may have averaged 10 fantasy PPG, but he only scored 10+ in 5 games. The rest of the time he was giving you 8, 2, 0 (that's right 0), 8, 3, 6, and 1 (that's right 1). Not exactly the type of production you'd expect out of a RB1. Hell, not exactly the type of production you'd expect out of a RB2 or even flex.

This was NOT a successful fantasy season, no matter how you spin it. I'm a Chiefs fan too man, so I know all about how awful he was last year.

Any 2008 LJ owners care to weigh in?

 

[Cooley Cadets]

You may do your best to seperate those 2, but when it boils down to it, the ADP matters.

If you're an LJ owner, he was likely your #1 RB selected.

You may do your best to blur the lines between the 2 but your challenge did not incorporate ADP. So go ahead and redirect the conversation all you like the fact is you were wrong.

People who drafted Johnson as their #1 RB gambled on the high risk/high reward and lost out it wasn't as though people were going to be surprised if it went one way or the other.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

You may do your best to blur the lines between the 2 but your challenge did not incorporate ADP. So go ahead and redirect the conversation all you like the fact is you were wrong.

People who drafted Johnson as their #1 RB gambled on the high risk/high reward and lost out it wasn't as though people were going to be surprised if it went one way or the other.

Yeah spot on dude. You've got it right.

LJ was 22nd in rushing yards
T-29th in TDs
31st in standard scoring among RBs
39th in PPR scoring among RBs.

Big freaking success!!

So if it's a 12 team league and you start 3 RBs, LJ would just barely earn a starting spot on a roster.

Doesn't matter if you picked him at 2.04 or 10.04, he was junk.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

Yeah spot on dude. You've got it right.

Closest to an intelligent post you have typed in this thread.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Closest to an intelligent post you have typed in this thread.

Whatever man. You take those numbers I gave you and spin that into success. I don't even know what I'm arguing this with you, it's so stupid.

LJ a success in 2008? You have lost it.

You can put all the smileys you want at the end of your posts, I know what I'm reading.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

I know what I'm reading.

Now if you will only realize what you are typing. :calvinpeeing on ...: