Top Ten Fantasy RBs According To NFL.com

Coachnorm

Coachnorm

Moderator
Here They are:

1.Adrian PetersonRBMinnesota$35
2.Matt ForteRBChicago$33
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3.Michael TurnerRBAtlanta$31
4.Maurice Jones-DrewRBJacksonville$29
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5.DeAngelo WilliamsRBCarolina$28
6.Chris JohnsonRBTennessee$27
7.Steven JacksonRBSt. Louis$25
8.Brian WestbrookRBPhiladelphia$24
9.Frank GoreRBSan Francisco$24
10.Marion BarberRBDallas$22


Here is the top 10 RBs according to NFL.coms' Top 100 Fantasy Players of 2009.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Interesting. I wonder though if Turner isn't headed down due to the huge number of carries he had last year. I also am not totally convinced Jackson will be back this year. I might put Portis there instead of Jackson....hmmm....
 
Coachnorm

Coachnorm

Moderator
Phicinfan said:
Interesting. I wonder though if Turner isn't headed down due to the huge number of carries he had last year. I also am not totally convinced Jackson will be back this year. I might put Portis there instead of Jackson....hmmm....
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Turner and the number of carries is always a concern. Could be a bit of Gonzo effect. Last year Turner had a lot of multi-td games. When Atlanta was rolling it was Turner, White, Turner. It might be more like Turner, White, Gonzo this year.
 
The Ram

The Ram

Half Man, Half Amazing
Barber at ten is going to make Mike's head explode. Forte at #2 is a big leap. Yup the kid stepped up big time and became Chi-town's leading offensive threat. But wow, putting him right behind ADP is a hell of a jump. Westy is a better #2 IMO. I like Turner in the top three for sure.

I wonder how guys like Portis (#4 last year, thanks Phic), Slaton (was #6 last seaon), or even LT (#10 last year) fell out of grace? Also notice they don't go out on any limbs by adding rookies already penciled in as starters like Moreno (Denver).
 
Remote Controller

Remote Controller

Well-Known Member
What!!!!! No Julius Jones???? :grin:

I agree that Turner is too high. I think Forte is in the right spot IF this is PPR. Top 5 regardless. I love chris Johnson and he will likely be a target of mine in PPR leagues when drawing a late draft #.
 
Coachnorm

Coachnorm

Moderator
The Ram said:
Barber at ten is going to make Mike's head explode. Forte at #2 is a big leap. Yup the kid stepped up big time and became Chi-town's leading offensive threat. But wow, putting him right behind ADP is a hell of a jump. Westy is a better #2 IMO. I like Turner in the top three for sure.

I wonder how guys like Portis (#4 last year, thanks Phic), Slaton (was #6 last seaon), or even LT (#10 last year) fell out of grace? Also notice they don't go out on any limbs by adding rookies already penciled in as starters like Moreno (Denver).
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Actually, Slaton was #11 and Portis #12. I brought these lists in because they were early projections. Also it was NFL.com and the lists were not bad at all. Just a few years ago if you brought a fantasy projection/ ranking over from NFL.com it would have been totally laughable. There would have been 4 players that shouldn't have even been on the list and a couple of more more that you could argue against. These were not bad at all.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Coachnorm said:
Actually, Slaton was #11 and Portis #12. I brought these lists in because they were early projections. Also it was NFL.com and the lists were not bad at all. Just a few years ago if you brought a fantasy projection/ ranking over from NFL.com it would have been totally laughable. There would have been 4 players that shouldn't have even been on the list and a couple of more more that you could argue against. These were not bad at all.
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You're right. It actually is a pretty solid list.

Any list is going to be arguable to a point.

I like that NFL.com left LT off. Most people would fit him into their top 10 regardless.
 
WesDawg

WesDawg

'Burghapologist
ExperiencedRookie said:
I have him in my top 10. That offense is WAY too good to leave him off.

The fact that he is THE MAN in the run game keeps him in the top 10 as well.
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Good point. I was thinking that yesterday when I saw these rankings on NFL.com. He's young, was durable enough at WVU, and he's one of the few guys nowadays that doesn't "appear" to be in a RBBC.
I don't like MJD quite as high as 4, and I still think LT has one last elite season left in the tank. Westy is still great, but I can't help but think his touches decline a bit with McCoy on board. I also agree that Forte at 2 is conceivable now that they'll have a passing threat, but not at only 2 bucks less than AP.
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
serious question here, anyone know the last time someone was in the top 5 fantasy backs in both of their first two seasons?

Just off the top of my head I know that sophomore RB's seem to struggle their 2nd years after a great first year. Not always, there are always exception (AP), but even the exceptions would be hard pressed to go back to back top 5.

Forte was a STUD last year, no doubt about it. But I don't see him doing something that I don't think many have done. He won't be a bust, but I'm not taking him top 5 either.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Miller said:
serious question here, anyone know the last time someone was in the top 5 fantasy backs in both of their first two seasons?
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Interesting question.

I follow it up with a question of my own.

When was the last time there were as many rookie runners all making as big of an impact as last year?

Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Smith were all difference makers on the field and fantasy wise.

Darren McFadden, Jon Stewart, Tim Hightower, and Felix Jones were also pretty solid.

All those guys can't hit a sophmore slump, it's just not possible. To pick Forte out of the group and say that he will be the guy who doesn't deliver isn't fair without some reasoning.
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
but I didn't say he wouldn't deliver...I stated to expect a 2nd top 5 year maybe unprecedented and a bit too optimistic.

Since you don't seem to like to answer my question, I will attempt to answer yours, because while last year was a fantastic rookie year for RB's, maybe one of the best ever, it was not too long ago where we had a draft class that was close.

This past year in basic scoring leagues the rookies occupied the 3rd, 8th, 11th, 18th, & 26th spots in the top 30 RB's for the year. That is 2 top 10's, 2 in the 2nd 10 and 1 in the 3rd.

In just 2006 the rookie RB's occupied the following spots: 8th, 10th, 17th, 29th, 30th. Same amount of top 10's (didn't have the top 5), and both had 5 in the top 30 overall, same as this year.

Now let's look at how those 5 rookies did the next year:
8th (MJD) - 14th
10th (addai) - 3rd
17th (bush) - 16th
29th (Maroney) - 27th
30th (Bell) - N/R
So out of all 5, only 1 showed dramatic improvement (Addai), 1 dropped out of the top 10, 2 were vitrually the same and the other dropped off the map.

Some expected these backs to all have great So years based on the promise of a nice rookie year. Just didn't happen as many thought. i warned that year to temper expectations some, and that is all I would warn this year.

I expect for one of those two to repeat as a top 5 back. Not sure any will flop, though I can see Slaton struggling with durability making a return top 10 tough. Forte would be top 10, just just goping to write him in as a sure fire top 5 pick. History is not on his side.

I'm not picking Forte out of this group, I'm going to warn you of the group as a whole. One will likely do great, as you pointed out, they have a lot of chances, you just have to pick the right one. I can pretty much gaurentee that the top 3 from last year will simply not repeat or exceed last season.

Now, anyone care to answer my question ;)
 
WesDawg

WesDawg

'Burghapologist
This doesn't answer your question, but I will respectfully dispute your claim about Forte.
When was the last time a rookie runner came in, had a R.O.Y. type campaign despite the fact he was the ONLY true offensive threat on his team, then had such drastic improvements around him coming into year 2?
Orlando Pace comes in to bookend with and mentor a likely healthy Chris Williams, who basically gave nothing in his injury-plagued rookie year. Cutler, Iglesias, and a developing Hester present downfield options along with potential stud TE Greg Olsen to loosen up the middle of the field.
Put those things together with an offseason of seasoning, and you have a potential monster in Forte. Honestly, in a dynasty/keeper PPR league, I would consider Forte at #1 overall. I just now talked myself into that opinion. LOL
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
WesDawg said:
This doesn't answer your question, but I will respectfully dispute your claim about Forte.
When was the last time a rookie runner came in, had a R.O.Y. type campaign despite the fact he was the ONLY true offensive threat on his team, then had such drastic improvements around him coming into year 2?
Orlando Pace comes in to bookend with and mentor a likely healthy Chris Williams, who basically gave nothing in his injury-plagued rookie year. Cutler, Iglesias, and a developing Hester present downfield options along with potential stud TE Greg Olsen to loosen up the middle of the field.
Put those things together with an offseason of seasoning, and you have a potential monster in Forte. Honestly, in a dynasty/keeper PPR league, I would consider Forte at #1 overall. I just now talked myself into that opinion. LOL
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All good points, and all could be valid. However, I think that is expecting too much out of the young kid. The same reasoning that you are using above for him to be a monster could actually work against him in the fantasy sense. As you stated, last year he was the only weapon and it seemed like everything they did ran through him and it resulted in fantastic numbers. Fast forward to this year and they have a true QB and seem to be developing some receiving threats around him to where Forte won't have to be asked to do it all. This is great for him long term and great for the team, but may equal a slight decline in overall numbers.

Forte could be as great as many are hoping he is, I've just seen enough of these young guys to know that history tells us they all won't be great.

Just to build off of my earlier example, that 2006 rookie class as 2007 sophomores was as hyped as this one is. Addai (6), MJD (17), Marroney (12), and Bush (11) were all in the top 17 in ADP that next season. Addai is the only one who lived up to the hype. MJD was the next closest, but with a 14th finish amoung RB's and his incinsistent numbers that year anyone who drafted him will tell you there were not real happy with him as a 2nd round pick.

So is Forte this year's Addai? What about Chris Johnson? Steve Slaton? If you love all 3, you may want to dig a little deeper, they all won't come through.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Miller said:
Now, anyone care to answer my question ;)
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I really wish I could. I don't have enough history in fantasy football to comment on past rookies repeating top 5 success.

I would guess that no one has ever done it.

It is an incredible feat for any RB to put up back to back top 5 years.

Even more incredible is a rookie runner who is able to come in and be a top 5 RB.

Is it possible that Forte is the 1st rookie runner ever to be in the top 5?
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
ExperiencedRookie said:
I really wish I could. I don't have enough history in fantasy football to comment on past rookies repeating top 5 success.

I would guess that no one has ever done it.

It is an incredible feat for any RB to put up back to back top 5 years.

Even more incredible is a rookie runner who is able to come in and be a top 5 RB.

Is it possible that Forte is the 1st rookie runner ever to be in the top 5?
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I know, I was just busting your balls. :nannie:

And no, Forte is not the first, in fact his performance last year made it back to back rookie runners to accomplish this. Peterson finished 3rd himself as a rookie in 07. The last one before them to pull this off I believe was Portis in 2002.
 
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