2021 Phicinfan's first Mock NFL draft

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
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Okay here is the plan. I will do this one pick at a time, letting any who want to chime in.

I will then update this first post with each pick.

My plan is to do two things here. I am going to post what I believe will happen and why, and then if I have a different view(yeah me the big new GM....), I will post that. I will include trades, IF I feel trades could legitimately happen.

Here is the draft order:
#1 - Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence Qb Clemson
#2 - NY Jets - Zach Wilson Qb BYU
#3 - Miami - trade from Houston - Ja'Marr Chase Wr LSU
#4 - Atlanta - Trey Lance Qb North Dakota State
#5 - Cincinnati - Penei Sewell OT Oregon
#6 - Philadelphia - Trade Carolina - Justin Fields Qb Ohio State
#7 - Detroit - Devonta Smith Wr Alabama
#8 - Carolina - previous trade with Philadelphia - Kyle Pitts Te Florida
#9 - Denver - Caleb Farley Cb Virginia Tech
#10 - Dallas - Patrick Surtain II Cb Alabama
#11 - NY Giants - Jaylen Waddle Wr Alabama
#12 - San Francisco - Mac Jones Qb Alabama
#13 - LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater OT Northwestern
#14 - Minnesota - Gregory Rousseau DE Miami
#15 - New England - Micah Parson ILB Penn State
#16 - Arizona - Jaycee Horn Cb South Carolina
#17 - LA Raiders - Jaelan Phillips DE Miami
#18 - Miami - Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech
#19 - Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Lb Notre Dame
#20 - Chicago - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker USC
#21 - Indianapolis - Kwity Paye DL Michigan
#22 - Tennessee - Zaven Collins OLB Tulsa
#23 - N.Y. Jets - trade from Seattle - Najee Harris Rb Alabama
#24 - Pittsburgh - Travis Etienne Rb Clemson
#25 - Jacksonville - trade from Los Angeles Rams - S Trevon Moehrig TCU
#26 - Cleveland - Aaron Robinson Cb UCF
#27 - Baltimore - Kadarius Toney Wr Florida
#28 - New Orleans - Nick Bolton ILB Missouri
#29 - Green Bay - Levi Onwuzurike DT Washington
#30 - Buffalo - Joe Tyron DE Washington
#31 - Kansas City - Jaylen Mayfield OT Michigan
#32 - Tampa Bay - Christian Barmore DT Alabama
 
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Phicinfan

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Pick #1 - Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence Qb Clemson - this is a no brainer, and quite frankly why the HC took the job. Lets not over think this, this is the pick.
 
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Phicinfan

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Pick #2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson Qb BYU

Why - well I see two scenarios and they are all driven by need and cost.
Option 1 - Jets take Wilson, and then move Darnold for pick(s). Lets face facts, even if you like Sam, and many do, he will cost you starting next year or year after as he is on his last year of his rookie deal. They do have one option year, but then you get into big money. By doing this, they get young Qb to groom, use the extra picks they have and get with dealing Darnold and hvae Wilson cheap for up to 5 years.
Option 2 - Jets trade this pick to move down - Whoever trades up will be for Wilson, and Jets get even more picks to use to fix the team.

Either way, Wilson is the pick here. Just who will take him. This will totally depend on what offers Jets get for the pick or for Darnold.
 
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efactor

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Pick #2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson Qb BYU

Why - well I see two scenarios and they are all driven by need and cost.
Option 1 - Jets take Wilson, and then move Darnold for pick(s). Lets face facts, even if you like Sam, and many do, he will cost you starting next year or year after as he is on his last year of his rookie deal. They do have one option year, but then you get into big money. By doing this, they get young Qb to groom, use the extra picks they have and get with dealing Darnold and hvae Wilson cheap for up to 5 years.
Option 2 - Jets trade this pick to move down - Whoever trades up will be for Wilson, and Jets get even more picks to use to fix the team.

Either way, Wilson is the pick here. Just who will take him. This will totally depend on what offers Jets get for the pick or for Darnold.
I think option 2. I think they give Darnold another year with a real coach and use the picks to build the defense and OL. That's Salah's style. Darnold is cheap this year and they will probably be in position to draft another QB next year if it doesn't work out.
 

Phicinfan

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I think option 2. I think they give Darnold another year with a real coach and use the picks to build the defense and OL. That's Salah's style. Darnold is cheap this year and they will probably be in position to draft another QB next year if it doesn't work out.
My last thought on this. I don't see a trade back for Jets, unless they are totally sold on Darnold. Its either keep Darnold and move back for more picks OR take the Qb at 2 and trade Darnold for a pick or more. With all the teams hungry for Qb, they simply can't move back and hope to get one. My gut says they go Wilson, and get picks for Darnold. Just due to fresh start and cap help later on.
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #3 - Miami
Again, I have no question Miami is going to get a ton of calls. Especially with the top 2 Qbs off the board. That being said, I don't think ANY of the rest of the Qbs are top 5 value, not even sure they are top 10.
So I then look at what Miami needs, and while more picks are always nice I think they have to get a stud player to help out Tua.
I think the pick here is Wr. Parker has done better, but has a tendency to get banged up. Need a real #1.
I think the pick here is Wr - and its LSU Ja'Marr Chase
 
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Phicinfan

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Pick #4 - Atlanta
I hate to say this, but I think Atlanta is going to fall into a trap. I think they realize they have to move away from Matt Ryan(cost is too prohibitive) and age. Can't do it this year(although hearing rumors that may not be totally locked...). But here is the trap - again, I don't think the Qb's out there are top 5 value, but they have to get one here, as the class in next year is not nearly as deep.
The pick here will be Qb. Which Qb though? I think it has to be Trey Lance Qb North Dakota State.
Now, that being said, Atlanta should trade back, and let someone else pay the price of over valuing some of these young Qbs and see what is available later. Heck a trade back with Carolina would get them picks, and still a shot at Mac Jones who I actually like better than either Justin Fields or Trey Lance. But they are trapped and may pay the price.
The reason I say Lance here is opportunity. I believe Lance has highest ceiling, and he will get a full year to learn under Ryan and learn the pro game, which will only help Lance out.

Pick is in - its Trey Lance Qb North Dakota State
 
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Phicinfan

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Going to go ahead and make one more obvious pick here.....
Pick #5 - Cincinnati - Penei Sewell OT Oregon
Cincinnati will run, not walk to put this pick in. They can put this kid at OLT, move Jonah Williams to ORT and fix two issues with one pick. This won't be the only move to improve the O-line but will be a huge help. They have to protect Burrow.
I know many are screaming for a Wr here, to replace A.J. Green, but they don't have a key need there. They addressed Green leaving last year when they stole Higgins. I do think they need to draft Rb as Mixon is starting to show wear, but you don't do that in the first round if you are smart in the NFL.
 
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efactor

Coming at you
Going to go ahead and make one more obvious pick here.....
Pick #5 - Cincinnati - Penei Sewell OT Oregon
Cincinnati will run, not walk to put this pick in. They can put this kid at OLT, move Jonah Williams to ORT and fix two issues with one pick. This won't be the only move to improve the O-line but will be a huge help. They have to protect Burrow.
I know many are screaming for a Wr here, to replace A.J. Green, but they don't have a key need there. They addressed Green leaving last year when they stole Higgins. I do think they need to draft Rb as Mixon is starting to show wear, but you don't do that in the first round if you are smart in the NFL.
This seems to be the most consensus pick besides Lawrence.
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #6 - this is where I think the trade talk to move in for Qb will start. QB value is better here or just later and only two first round Qbs are left. You have by reports - Denver, Carolina, Washington need Qbs. I am hearing SF may be an option, as well as Seattle depending if bottom drops out with Russell Wilson.
That being said, WFT has the biggest challenge, to get down to here will be huge. So don't think it will be viable here.
The big issues is what happens with Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. So all of this currently is couched that neither move.
Then Carolina and SF and Chicago become the big playres.

I KNOW Carolina wants to make a move to a Qb that is mobile and can really throw deep. I see them moving here to make sure no one like Denver or SF move up and snag Fields.

So trade is Carolina trades with Philadelphia - Swap of #6 and #9 and additional picks from Carolina. Carolina selects Justin Fields Qb Ohio State.

Philly can still get a Wr at #9 or maybe even Pitts, and get extra picks to fix a cap strapped team.
 
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efactor

Coming at you
Pick #4 - Atlanta
I hate to say this, but I think Atlanta is going to fall into a trap. I think they realize they have to move away from Matt Ryan(cost is too prohibitive) and age. Can't do it this year(although hearing rumors that may not be totally locked...). But here is the trap - again, I don't think the Qb's out there are top 5 value, but they have to get one here, as the class in next year is not nearly as deep.
The pick here will be Qb. Which Qb though? I think it has to be Trey Lance Qb North Dakota State.
Now, that being said, Atlanta should trade back, and let someone else pay the price of over valuing some of these young Qbs and see what is available later. Heck a trade back with Carolina would get them picks, and still a shot at Mac Jones who I actually like better than either Justin Fields or Trey Lance. But they are trapped and may pay the price.
The reason I say Lance here is opportunity. I believe Lance has highest ceiling, and he will get a full year to learn under Ryan and learn the pro game, which will only help Lance out.

Pick is in - its Trey Lance Qb North Dakota State
This is a tough one. Fields or Lance
 

efactor

Coming at you
Ohio State Qbs don't do well in the NFL, but Fields if given time may be okay. But I don't think he has the ceiling that Lance has.
I haven't see either of them play (don't watch college football much) but depending on who you listen too, Fields is either the best QB in the class (yes, some say better than Lawrence) or a potential massive bust.
 

efactor

Coming at you
My last thought on this. I don't see a trade back for Jets, unless they are totally sold on Darnold. Its either keep Darnold and move back for more picks OR take the Qb at 2 and trade Darnold for a pick or more. With all the teams hungry for Qb, they simply can't move back and hope to get one. My gut says they go Wilson, and get picks for Darnold. Just due to fresh start and cap help later on.
Not sure how much steam this has, but apparently, Shanahan likes Darnold

If true, a trade makes sense for them. Darnold is only 23. If you bring in one of the Lance/Mack Jones levels of rookie QBs at pick 12, is that better than rolling the dice on a 23 year old QB who hasn't had the benefit of good coaching or good receivers around him at a much lower price?

For the sake of argument, say Darnold costs this years 2nd (I think they could get a 4th or 5th back from the Jets as well), they could trade Jimmy to NE for a 2nd or 3rd and essentially break even there. Then take Slater at 12 (assuming he is still there) or trade down.

Would like to see Darnold in a Shanahan system, throwing to Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo and possibly Sanders.
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #7 - Detroit
As it stands right now, they don't have but one or two Wrs on the roster as they let Golladay, Marvin Jones and Amendola walk in FA. So they HAVE to get a play maker here to help fill that void. Devonta Smith Wr Alabama fits a real need here.

I could see maybe a trade back if someone wants to trade up to get the last first round rated Qb Mac Jones, but Detroit doesn't need one, Philly doesn't need one(and in this mock already traded back) so they may wait to trade in later to save on cost.
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #8 - Philadelphia
Philly needs playmakers. By all reports they will either cut or trade Zach Ertz this year. They love 2 TE sets, and they need a speed middle threat to open up the outside for Fulham and Reagor. Going with the Te here with Kyle Pitts Te Florida. Waddle was a real thought here. But to me you have a duplicate of Reagor if you do that, and I think Pitts is more a use in this type offense..
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #9 - Denver
Here is where more fun starts. Is Denver sold on Lock? Do they want to draft a young Qb here to give him a challenge? I don't think so. I have been reading they would much prefer a vet Qb to challenge him and maybe help him develop. Maybe even Fitpatrick. That being said this team is pretty stacked at Wr. Could use a Rb but I flatly refuse to draft Rb in the first round, at least this early, and so do most NFL teams. So time to address the other concerns this team has which is depth in defense, specifically DL and Cb.

Two Cbs have first round value, and opinions on which of the two are split. I really like what I have seen from this kid, so to me this is the pick. Denver takes Cb Caleb Farley Virginia Tech.
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #10 - Dallas

Dallas' biggest issue is defense. They need a ton of help, but one key weakness, especially due to potential FA losses is Cb. Patrick Surtain II Cb Alabama fits the need of a shut down corner to pair with former Alabama teammate Diggs.
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #11 - NY Giants

To me this is very clear, they need OL help, they need Wr help and they also need some Rb depth potentially. But OL can be gotten later, and Rb isn't that dire if Saquon Barkley comes back healthy. So lets address the Wr slot here. Jaylen Waddle Wr Alabama will fit the need to help take pressure off of Daniel Jones and free up other Wrs.
 

Phicinfan

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Pick #12 - San Francisco

Here is where I upset some big 49ers fans. Niners really need Cb, but with Surtain and Farley off the board, the talent does not really rate this high a pick. Nor is there anyone here left who really would force a team to trade up. The only real trade up possibilities I see is maybe Washington or Chicago trading up to get the last Qb with first round grade Mac Jones. But you have to way, how many times will you get this shot if you are San Francisco?
I will add that Mac Jones is a great fit in this offense, and I am hearing more and more reports that SF is not that in love with Garoppolo and are willing to walk away.
So the pick here is Mac Jones Qb Alabama
Gonna add here that if he had not slipped here, I don't think SF would trade up to get him. See this as best value for what they need still on the board, and allows them to move Garoppolo and get some trade value, or cut him for cap help.
 
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