Try to talk me out of it

ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
My work league drafts on Friday night. It's a 14 team PPR league. Start 2 WRs, 1 RB, and a flex.

Everyone gets 1 keeper, and you can't keep a player for anything later than a 5th rd pick. So, for example, if you picked Russell Wilson up off of waivers last year, he'll cost you a 5th rounder.

Players being kept are: AP, Doug Martin, Spiller, Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley (me), Dez, AJ Green, Cobb, Eric Decker, Peyton, RGIII, Kaepernick, Vernon Davis, and Witten.

The reason a lot of the keepers look odd is because you can't keep anyone who was a keeper last year.

I have the 3rd pick in the draft, and it's no secret who the 1st 2 picks will be. It will go 1. Brees 2. Rodgers.

This league goes very heavy on QB. 6 usually go in the 1st round. 10 QBs are typically gone by the end of the 3rd. Still, I don't entertain the idea of Brady at 3.

My thinking, and I know it might sound crazy, is to take Calvin Johnson at 3, even with Charles on the board. Half of the guys in this league sleep on good PPR RBs, and it's quite probable that Reggie Bush falls to me at the end of the 2nd round. It's also very probable that WRs get hit pretty hard. RBs tend to fall in general, especially rookies.

So if I take Cal and Reggie, and have Ridley as my 5th rd keeper, that makes a QB like Stafford/Romo a pretty good option in the 3rd. If I don't jump on QB now, it's going to be some bargain basement combo, because they'll all get picked over by my 4th round pick.

My question is, how dumb/bright would it be to have Cal, Reggie Bush, and Stafford all packaged up together? I like each player a lot individually, so why not go all in?

Thoughts?
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Unless the scoring is rediculously high for Qb, I would do what you have stated.

This being PPR though, you have no better option than Ridley??
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Phicinfan said:
Unless the scoring is rediculously high for Qb, I would do what you have stated.

This being PPR though, you have no better option than Ridley??
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Not really. I have Sproles, but would surrender my 3rd rd pick instead of a 5th for Ridley. My team was pretty awful last year, and my best players like Chris Johnson and Stafford we're keepers the previous year and can no longer be kept
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Axe Elf said:
Get Charles, duh.
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It seems like such a no brainier, but I really prefer the projected talent at RB in the 2nd rd to the WR talent. I see the range of WRs being Cruz, Welker Colston, etc etc. VJax would be a possibility, but not 1 I could rely on. Plus, he's not exactly an amazing POR WR. I'd probably end up reaching for Bowe instead.
 
A

Axe Elf

So get something else in the 2nd round. There are 2000 startable WRs in the NFL these days; you don't leave Charles on the board.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
My problem is that the 2 WRs on the board in the 2nd rd are both pretty big reaches. One of them is Bowe. The Chiefs offense isn't exactly the team I want to double dip my 1st 2 picks from. Kind of ties my hands for my other target, who is Amendola.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
I am as huge a fan of Charles as anyone in the fantasy world, but I do not pass up calvin Johnson....I just don't. Not in PPR, it is just silly. Even with Bush in Detroit, the whole offense is predicated on getting the ball to Calvin. Yes, same for charles, but Detroit is much more explosive
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
I've decided to gamble it up in this league. I'm going to pass on all the RBs in that spot and take Cal. He's my favorite player in the NFL and I haven't owned him since 2009. Plus, I really want to name my team Djohnson Unchained.

I'm going to try to land Reggie Bush in the 2nd n Stafford in the 3rd. The Lions had the #3 offense in the NFL last year. This could work...
 
A

Axe Elf

Why would you name your team after Derrick Johnson?

P.S. Sorry to hear about your latest bad decision.
 
A

Axe Elf

Maybe Matthew Berry can talk you out of it...

"The blood drained from my face.

The feeling came almost immediately, as regret often does.

What had I just done?

It was the last day of April, a few days after the NFL draft, and I was in a room full of people when I blurted it out.

"I'll take Calvin Johnson."

That's what I said. But what I thought was … "Crap."

The occasion was our annual fantasy football rankings summit, an annual tradition we started in 2007 when a bunch of people from all over ESPN -- all of our fantasy analysts and editors, some Stats & Info studs and some folks from ESPN The Magazine, among others -- convene to discuss, argue and analyze every player of interest, to come up with a set of rankings that will serve as the initial, official ESPN rankings.

It was during that session that we held a mock draft for our fantasy football guide, which is on the newsstands now. I had pick No. 7 of this 10-team mock and, with six running backs off the board, I chose Megatron.

And I quickly knew I shouldn't have.

It's not often you can draft Calvin Johnson -- he of the 3,600 yards and 21 touchdowns the past two seasons combined -- and feel bad about it. I mean, I can, I'm neurotic. I can feel bad about anything. It's my special gift. But for most people, you don't feel bad about getting him on your team in the second half of the first round; if anything, you're doing backflips.

But this year is different. This year has wrinkles. Let me explain. No, there is no time. Let me sum up."

Full article...
http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football...r-draft-strategy-2013-fantasy-football-drafts
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Sometimes....just sometimes...fantasy football is about fun too. It's a work league. It's a $25 investment.

I like the start of Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush more than Jamaal Charles and Victor Cruz or whoever anyways.

Its done. Im on the ledge. I've stepped one foot out. "Ill do it!!!"
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
To be fair, the most similar situation to Jamaal Charles in 2012 was LeSean McCoy. Same style of player, same head coach, same ADP. Charles is roughly the 3rd ranked RB this year, McCoy was the 3rd ranked RB last year.

If I was to tell you last year that I was thinking about taking Calvin Johnson over McCoy in the first round, you'd probably tell me it was dumb. I would have ended up with the #1 scoring fantasy WR instead of the #16 fantasy RB. HUGE difference.

Now I know you'll point to the fact that McCoy missed 4 games, and you have to project his scoring over a full schedule. So I went ahead and prorated his PPG, and with a full slate of action, he is still only the #6 fantasy RB. Even if McCoy was to stay healthy the whole year, he would still be out performed by 4 guys who are all taken at least a full round after him. AP, Lynch, CJ Spiller, and Doug Martin all out perform him. Then guys like Morris, Trent Richardson, and Charles all basically put up the same amount. So you can't tell me that you cant find guys who can give you that same scoring or even more than that I'm passing on. Sure, Charles has the potential to be the #1 fantasy RB, but that's no sure thing. Who is more likely to finish #1 at their position : Calvin Johnson or Jamaal Charles?

When taking Calvin in 2012, you can't find a guy who is going to outscore him. Heck, you can only find one guy within 10 points of him, and everyone else is over 40 points behind at WR.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Axe Elf said:
Well, you asked me to try, and I tried.

Now you're just going to have to lie in the bed you make.
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I didn't ask YOU to try, I asked anyone.

Not that it really matters. Guy with the #1 overall pick is talking about keeping Russell Wilson instead of Dez, and then drafting Cal #1. I might be forced to either look at Brees or take Charles
 
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