Top Ten Running Backs Last Year: No PPR

Coachnorm

Moderator
  1. De Angelo Williams: great yardage and long distance TD Machine
  2. Micheal Turner: Monster, but was more of a home game monster.
  3. Adrian Peterson: Always a threat to carry the team on his shoulders.
  4. Matt Forte: high on this list even without all the points for catches.
  5. Thomas Jones: became a TD machine with the Threat of Favre passing
  6. LaDainian Tomlinson: Hung pretty tough with the injuries.
  7. Steve Slaton: Banged it home all year long, amazing.
  8. Clinton Portis Tailed off a bit but solid production was his key.
  9. Maurice Jones-Drew:Hot and cold, won you some, lost you some.
  10. Brian Westbrook: Constant injury watch but great on the field.
Ok, recent fantasy history says 4-5 of these guys won't be on this years Top Ten list. Name some guys that will be out this year, Name some that will be in. Some that could be in Steven Jackson with a new Tackle in the draft? Chris Johnson, probably on the list last year in a PPR league? Brandon Jacobs with less Ward action? Frank Gore with some better passing around him? Ronnie Brown with a higher % of touches?
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
  1. De Angelo Williams: great yardage and long distance TD Machine
  2. Micheal Turner: Monster, but was more of a home game monster.
  3. Adrian Peterson: Always a threat to carry the team on his shoulders.
  4. Matt Forte: high on this list even without all the points for catches.
  5. Thomas Jones: became a TD machine with the Threat of Favre passing
  6. LaDainian Tomlinson: Hung pretty tough with the injuries.
  7. Steve Slaton: Banged it home all year long, amazing.
  8. Clinton Portis Tailed off a bit but solid production was his key.
  9. Maurice Jones-Drew:Hot and cold, won you some, lost you some.
  10. Brian Westbrook: Constant injury watch but great on the field.
Ok, recent fantasy history says 4-5 of these guys won't be on this years Top Ten list. Name some guys that will be out this year, Name some that will be in. Some that could be in Steven Jackson with a new Tackle in the draft? Chris Johnson, probably on the list last year in a PPR league? Brandon Jacobs with less Ward action? Frank Gore with some better passing around him? Ronnie Brown with a higher % of touches?

I think DeWill drops, as his counter part picks up more and they split more.
I think Potis continues to drop, age and use alone call that out.
Thomas Jones will drop out, and I believe drop off the face of the earth...especially due to the contract stuff.
Turner? We all know the history of backs with that amount of carries.
Slaton...either due to beatings and his size, or the fact they find a real solid compliment and take carries away.

I think Jones-Drew will rise, due to the fact Taylor is gone now.
Forte will increase.
Chris Johnson will be on here next year.
 

Coachnorm

Moderator
I think DeWill drops, as his counter part picks up more and they split more.
I think Potis continues to drop, age and use alone call that out.
Thomas Jones will drop out, and I believe drop off the face of the earth...especially due to the contract stuff.
Turner? We all know the history of backs with that amount of carries.
Slaton...either due to beatings and his size, or the fact they find a real solid compliment and take carries away.

I think Joonnes-Drew will rise, due to the fact Taylor is gone now.
Forte will increase.
Chris Johnson will be on here next year.

Portis will probably be a popular drop back.
Jones does worry me as the passing threat of the Jets doesn't worry anyone for right now.
Turner did have a boatload of carries and a very wise poster and stats master warns us of that every year.
Slaton was great to watch still young and the Texans O is clicking better he could repeat. It will be interesting to see when the Texans draft a back this year.
 

Runnik's Hambones

Active Member
I'd say DWIll drops slightly, and JStew increases slightly.
Turner remains effective and is in the top 5 again.
AP will be in the top 5 easily.
Forte gets better.
Jones will be a nobody; not even in the top 15 I'd guess next year.
LT may break the top 10 mark but will remain in the top 15.
Steve Slayton will become more of a PPR monster next year, but will probably stay where he is non-PPR.
Portis falls out of the top 10 but remains in top 15.
Jones-Drew gets close to the top 5, but stays at about 6.
Westbrook stays where he is.

Chris Johnson makes the top 10.
Brandon Jacobs makes the top 10.
IF Ronnie Brown remains healthy, he's in the top 10.
And Frank Gore will not be in the top 10; I'd guess like 13th.
 

DearbornDolfan

Active Member
  1. Micheal Turner: Monster, but was more of a home game monster.
  2. Thomas Jones: became a TD machine with the Threat of Favre passing
  3. LaDainian Tomlinson: Hung pretty tough with the injuries.
  4. Clinton Portis Tailed off a bit but solid production was his key.
  5. Brian Westbrook: Constant injury watch but great on the field.

Turner's massive carries last year is a real reason not to draft the guy as your feature back, Jones was reliant on the passing attack and that's now pretty much gone for the Jets, Tomlinson is injury-prone and will likely give up carries to Sproles, Portis is just old, and Westbrook is both old and injury-prone.

I look for Chris Johnson to break high into the Top 10 list and for Ronnie Brown to have a monster season two years removed from his knee injury.
 

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
Will Lynch play enough games to get into the top 10?? Good chance he's looking at a nice suspension.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Will Lynch play enough games to get into the top 10?? Good chance he's looking at a nice suspension.

Nah. He'll clean up real nice for his meeting with Goodell. Take those gold teeth out and put on a nice suit. Goodell will then treat him to a meal at TGIF and they'll go see a buddy flick.
 

WesDawg

'Burghapologist
Keeping it in context, a non-PPR league emphasizes TD's a bit more, so I'm leery of choosing the wrong end of an '09 thunder/lightning combo, i.e. Chris Johnson and DeWill. MJD is awesome, but he's not a 300+ carry back, especially behind a depleted O-Line. Portis, Jacobs, and Westbrook are great, but I don't see any logging 16 games.

So with that said, I'd go Peterson, Turner, L.T., Steve Jackson, and Forte in that order as my top-5 in a non-PPR league. Those guys are the surest bets to get the lion's share of carries and an appropriate number of TD's.

For darkhorse top-10 guys, I'll throw out 2 that haven't been mentioned yet in Kevin Smith from Detroit and Ryan Grant from GB, due to the fact that I think they are in less of a time share than some others that have been addressed, and should be good for 1200 and 10 if they remain healthy. Also if Run-DMC can log 16 games in Oakland, he'll push Fargas to the sideline and contend for a rushing title.

As for the Turner/workload discussion, I don't know that it applies quite yet because he never started at SD, so he's got much more tread on the tires than the past examples that I'm sure he'll be compared to.
 

WesDawg

'Burghapologist
Luckily he had less than 10 receptions though, so it keeps his touches at a more reasonable level than some that are used as examples of this theory.
 

DearbornDolfan

Active Member
Granted. But here's something else to think about, Turner has to be feeling that season about now and the team has to know it. The team also can't be unaware of the correlation, as it's not exactly uncommon knowledge, so I think the odds are high Norwood (who's a competent back in his own right) will see a heavier workload to protect the investment in Turner.
 

jmsmith1

New Member
De Angelo Williams: great yardage and long distance TD Machine
Micheal Turner: Monster, but was more of a home game monster.
Adrian Peterson: Always a threat to carry the team on his shoulders.
Matt Forte: high on this list even without all the points for catches.
Thomas Jones: became a TD machine with the Threat of Favre passing
LaDainian Tomlinson: Hung pretty tough with the injuries.
Steve Slaton: Banged it home all year long, amazing.
Clinton Portis Tailed off a bit but solid production was his key.
Maurice Jones-Drew:Hot and cold, won you some, lost you some.
Brian Westbrook: Constant injury watch but great on the field.
Ok, recent fantasy history says 4-5 of these guys won't be on this years Top Ten list. Name some guys that will be out this year, Name some that will be in. Some that could be in Steven Jackson with a new Tackle in the draft? Chris Johnson, probably on the list last year in a PPR league? Brandon Jacobs with less Ward action? Frank Gore with some better passing around him? Ronnie Brown with a higher % of touches?

- DeAngelo Williams will still be a solid back, but he will likely not be a top ten back. Johnathan Stewart is a beast and runs north south. He will see alot of the third down and goal line carries. Remember, he was a rookie last year that exceeded expectations. He's shown he is capable of being an integral part of this offense, and with Delhomme's abilities fading, this is going to be a run heavy offense. Dont be surprised is Stewart has half of Williams yardage, but double the TDs.

- Michael Turner was out to prove that he could be a premeire back in this league. Alot of focus was given initially to Turner so that Ryan could get some experience. With Ryan doing a great job as a rookie, I'd expect that we'll see Turner's numbers trail off a little bit, only because the offense will expand more with throwing in light of Ryan's success as the season progressed. But I still think Turner will be a top 10 back this year.

- AD will be a top ten back, except for all the wrong reasons! His offense has no leader at the QB position and he'll be expected to carry the load. Therein lies two problems. First, all pro center Matt Birk left, and Minnesota will have to either address that in FA or the draft. Secondly, with no proven commodity at QB, you'd expect defenses to load 8 in the box and stop the run, forcing Rosenfels or Jackson to win the game in the air. With two solid defenses in the NFC North, they might have trouble. My only other concern has been AD's durability. He'll be a lower end top 10 back for the reasons I've stated, but he is an immense talent that runs violently and will still get his, especially against Detroit if they dont shore up that D line.

- I think Thomas Jones could very well be a top 10 back again, but he's also an enigma at this point. He's unhappy with his contract, so what does that mean? Does that motivate him to put up his AFC leading numbers again, or is he slowly removed from the equation by Leon Washington? Lets not forget that the draft could very well answer this for us too. If NY takes a back in the first three rounds, Jones is done as a Jet.

- I think LaDainian will benefit from this drama ending behind him. He took a pay cut to keep things solid on the team and Darren Sproles stuck around. LT is still the man there and will be for several more years. He has run for over 1000 yards every year he's been in the league and wants a title and the record for rushing before its all said and done. I'd say he turns back into a top three back this year.

-Steve Slaton surprised some people this year by being able to be a consistent back. I think he'll continue to put up solid numbers. I dont think he'll be a top 5, but I think his production and the team's use of him out of the backfield as a reciever will make him a 6-7 overall back.

- I think Clinton Portis may be due for an off year this year. He is much like Jones here. He could put up to make others shut up or look for a new home shortly. He has all the tools to be consistently a top 5 back, but I think his attitude sometimes gets in his own way and before all is said and done, I think he gets dealt out of DC sometime soon. Campbell still is an average QB, so they'll lean on him more this year, but I think he's a trade waiting to happen.

- I think Jones Drew could go to the Pro Bowl this year. He's compact, fast, shifty, and intelligent. He was spelled by Fred Taylor last year and now that he is the premiere back, I think he'll step it up. His top 5 billing hinges solely on the Jags getting younger and better on O line and finding a true #1 WR to keep defenses from loading up to stop the run.
 

bobbeaux

Member
Leon Washington is one I could see jumping into the top 10 this year . . . you are right, though jm . . . if they draft a back early, it's probably going to make this a committee . . . I was lucky enough to draft Thomas Jones and DeAngelo Williams in a keeper league I'm in last year and won, but I think Jones is going to more of a backup role this year . . . at least by year's end . . . Williams will still get his, but probably will lose some too . . . ;)

I believe Slaton will get some help this year, but the overall improvement of the offense could keep him in the top ten . . . ;)
 

Coachnorm

Moderator
-

- I think LaDainian will benefit from this drama ending behind him. He took a pay cut to keep things solid on the team and Darren Sproles stuck around. LT is still the man there and will be for several more years. He has run for over 1000 yards every year he's been in the league and wants a title and the record for rushing before its all said and done. I'd say he turns back into a top three back this year.

I was just reading that the Chargers plan to elevate him back to 300+ again.
Back and at cap friendly numbers, no reason not to run the legs off of him.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Nah. He'll clean up real nice for his meeting with Goodell. Take those gold teeth out and put on a nice suit. Goodell will then treat him to a meal at TGIF and they'll go see a buddy flick.
Lynch is reported already to fully expect some suspension. Look for 2-4 games probably
 
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