Preseason week 1

[efactor]

Sjax will have 1500 all purpose yards this season and 10 tds...put it on the board....barring injury...

Dude has 8 straight 1000 yard seasons, what makes you think he will slow down?

I am tired of people thinking Sjax is 2012 Michael Turner....but for drafting purposes, keep on hating

Jackson is in for a great year with the lanes he will have to run in in that offense. 50 catches as well.

Don't miss the boat in redrafts..........

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Miller - if you honestly think Jaquizz will get anything, anything other than to give jackson a break...you are wrong. It has been clear by all reports they will use Jackson all over, including splitting him wide out. He will get the most receptions in his career this year I am betting.

Its going to be tough for him to top the 90 receptions he had in 2006. That's not happening

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Instead of feeling intimidated by Elf, just relax and enjoy his input. Some good stuff here............

Ohhhh no! Please don't feed the beast. 90% of the time, he's not saying anything that you can't find in the box score or drive summary.

 

[Miller]

Sjax will have 1500 all purpose yards this season and 10 tds...put it on the board....barring injury...

Dude has 8 straight 1000 yard seasons, what makes you think he will slow down?

I am tired of people thinking Sjax is 2012 Michael Turner....but for drafting purposes, keep on hating

did you even read my post above? The only thing i have stated is that Quizz will continue to be the 3rd down back and that Jacson will not catch 40/50 balls. Nothing of slowing down, nothing of not getting 1000 yards and in fact I said he will make a run at his 13 TD's from 2006. I think your 1500 yds is very doable. I see him going over 1300 on the ground.

They just don't have the need offensively to make him an every down back and run him into the ground at the age of 30 when they have other weapons and great specialists that can fill defined roles like a 3rd down back.

Man, didn't know stating that Quizz is going to be the 3rd down back in Atlanta would set off such a fire storm....relax people, your precious SJax will still get his, he just won't set a record for the most touches in a season and be responsible for 85% of the offensive production.

 

[Miller]

Its going to be tough for him to top the 90 receptions he had in 2006. That's not happening

haha, good catch there. Don't think Roddy, Jones and Gonzo would be thrilled if they are dumping it down to Jackson 90 times! Or maybe they are inventing the 2 football offense....

 

[Miller]

Instead of feeling intimidated by Elf, just relax and enjoy his input. Some good stuff here............

Who's intimidated....I'd love to go head to head with elf boy, and I like the activity he generates....but this all knowing crap, shit we all know by now, there is no all knowing in fantasy. He is entertaining though.....when he isn't trying to prove to everyone how great he is in his own mind.

 

[Axe Elf]

Instead of feeling intimidated by Elf

Can you blame them?

And I put SJax down for 1600 and 13, myself. Tired ol' Michael Turner put up 11 scores in that offense last year; Jackson gets all the same goalline work, plus breaks a couple on his own from a distance.

 

[Miller]

So it is clear, here is what I feel is a realistic line for Jackson if he plays all 16 games:
300 carries, 1350 ru yds, 12 TD's, 30 rec, 250 yds, 2 rec TD's.

This is really nothing more than those in the SJax camp are predicting other than Phic who thinks he is going to catch 90 balls.....

I just simply stated Quizz will be their primary 3rd down back. You can still be a stud and give up 3rd down.

Jackson will not be 2012 Michael Turner....but 2011 Turner, same ball park. For refernce:
2011: Turner: 301 carries, 1340 ru yds, 11 TD's, 17 rec, 168 rec yds, 0 rec TD's.

 

[Miller]

Can you blame them?

And I put SJax down for 1600 and 13, myself. Tired ol' Michael Turner put up 11 scores in that offense last year; Jackson gets all the same goalline work, plus breaks a couple on his own from a distance.

lol, so our predictions are basically identical only I have 1 more TD.....hmmmm, funny how saying someone will not get 3rd down work can get people so riled up....

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

The only thing that truly scares me about Sjax is the part of his career that he is in. Before anyone jumps up and down and screams and shouts about his toughness, which he clearly has, Im not saying that hes injury prone. I'm just a strong believer in the RB wall for age and carries.

Right now, Sjax is 30 years old. He has 2,395 career carries and 407 career receptions. This is eerily similar to another GREAT RB in recent years.

In 2008 LT had turned 30. He had 2,365 career carries and 455 receptions.

This was the biggest drop off in LTs career, a year in which he would never fully recover from. While still enjoying success, as we would expect from a RB of his stature, it wasn't like the rest of his career. He had a YPC of 3.8, which was his lowest since 2002. He also had a career low in carries and yards. Sure, carries and yards go together, but if you can't handle the 300 carry work load anymore, you're not gaining 4 yards per touch, chances are you're not going to get the ball as much.

Now this is a guy who was used to rushing for 1400-1800 yards every single season. To just barely eclipse 1100 is a big deal to me. Yes, its still a great season, especially with the 11 TDs he scored, but is it on par for what people had come to expect? No, not even close. He was a disappointment to most.

I know everyone is high on Sjax because of his change of scenery, and its great! I'm not sure its enough to make him great though. It doesn't take any years off the clock or any of the abuse away that his body has endured.

Sjax is not LT. His average per season is more in the 1100 range than the 1400 per season that LT had at this point in his career.

The numbers that are being projected for Sjax are on par with his best season in his career. At the age of 30, with nearly 2400 carries, I just don't see it, change of scenery or not.

I challenge anyone to find another RB not named Emmitt Smith with that amount of carries at the age of 30 who enjoyed the projected type of success that Sjax is currently getting. In history, there's not many out there.

 

[Axe Elf]

I don't think you can discount his motivation though. You call it "change of scenery," but it's more than that. The guy has been laboring away in futility for one of the worst teams in the league for years, and now he has a real legitimate chance to put on a SuperBowl ring before he retires. It's not just a new uniform; this guy is going to give it all he's got this year, and that means more than a number on the odometer.

And Miller, yeah, it looks like our predictions are pretty close; I'd just give him another 10-20 catches, because I DON'T see him coming out on 3rd down as much as you do. It's not Dirk Koetter's way. Think MJD in JAX when Koetter was THEIR offensive coordinator (circa 2011).

 

[Miller]

I don't think you can discount his motivation though. You call it "change of scenery," but it's more than that. The guy has been laboring away in futility for one of the worst teams in the league for years, and now he has a real legitimate chance to put on a SuperBowl ring before he retires. It's not just a new uniform; this guy is going to give it all he's got this year, and that means more than a number on the odometer.

And Miller, yeah, it looks like our predictions are pretty close; I'd just give him another 10-20 catches, because I DON'T see him coming out on 3rd down as much as you do. It's not Dirk Koetter's way. Think MJD in JAX when Koetter was THEIR offensive coordinator (circa 2011).

Fair enough, just see more value in Quizz and his talents on 3rd down vs Jackson at this point in his career. We will all see soon enough. In the end, the numbers are what matters, not how you get there.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I don't think you can discount his motivation though. You call it "change of scenery," but it's more than that. The guy has been laboring away in futility for one of the worst teams in the league for years, and now he has a real legitimate chance to put on a SuperBowl ring before he retires. It's not just a new uniform; this guy is going to give it all he's got this year, and that means more than a number on the odometer.

I disagree in so many ways. Doesn't mean you're wrong, I just disagree. And here's why.

Sticking with LT...Remember 2009 when the Jets were good? Like REALLY good? They just made an appearance in the AFC championship game and fell to Peyton Manning's Colts.
The next year LT came over to the Jets. Was he not motivated? Was he not also chasing a ring? Didn't make a lick of difference.

And what does motivated even mean in the NFL? Are the rest of these guys not motivated? Does Sjax have some kind of motivation leg up on everyone else? Does it turn him into Superman and give him the ability to break every historical trend with RBs at this point in their careers?

Im sure Frank Gore is super motivated too. He just narrowly missed out on a championship last year. Does he get the SUPER MOTIVATED boost in performance this year too? What about Reggie Bush? Change of scenery, still something big to prove. Is he going to get the extra 100 yards and 2 TDs that Matt Forte won't get because he doesn't have the "motivation boost"?

You could make this case for every guy in the NFL. Fact of the matter is, yes Im sure Sjax is super motivated. So is everyone else though. This is the NFL. These dudes are pros. Every guy from the Jacksonville locker room to Denver's believes and gives every ounce of energy.

Motivation vs the RB wall. History only supports one side.

 

[MongerKhan]

Your all missing the 1 big fact..Atl has better hookers than St. Louis.

THERE'S YOUR MOTIVATION! !!

 

[efactor]

I disagree in so many ways. Doesn't mean you're wrong, I just disagree. And here's why.

Sticking with LT...Remember 2009 when the Jets were good? Like REALLY good? They just made an appearance in the AFC championship game and fell to Peyton Manning's Colts.
The next year LT came over to the Jets. Was he not motivated? Was he not also chasing a ring? Didn't make a lick of difference.

And what does motivated even mean in the NFL? Are the rest of these guys not motivated? Does Sjax have some kind of motivation leg up on everyone else? Does it turn him into Superman and give him the ability to break every historical trend with RBs at this point in their careers?

Im sure Frank Gore is super motivated too. He just narrowly missed out on a championship last year. Does he get the SUPER MOTIVATED boost in performance this year too? What about Reggie Bush? Change of scenery, still something big to prove. Is he going to get the extra 100 yards and 2 TDs that Matt Forte won't get because he doesn't have the "motivation boost"?

You could make this case for every guy in the NFL. Fact of the matter is, yes Im sure Sjax is super motivated. So is everyone else though. This is the NFL. These dudes are pros. Every guy from the Jacksonville locker room to Denver's believes and gives every ounce of energy.

Motivation vs the RB wall. History only supports one side.

Backs hit walls at different times and LT was more reliant on quickness to the hole than Jackson, so not as worried in that respect.

I just look at what Turner accomplished in that offense the last couple years and he was toast. It would take him 2/3 chances to punch it in from the 1. After the first carry, Ryan would often go to the pass. Jackson still has a lot left in the tank based on what I viewed last year so 15 rushing TDs wouldn't surprise me. Turner had 10 last year (plus 1 receiving) and he was horrible in short yardage. Lots of opportunity down close in that offense.

As far as receptions, even if he isn't in on 3rd down, I think he will catch 50 passes just as a natural part of the offense. Atlanta didn't throw to backs on 1st/2nd down because Turner was not a good receiver. I think Ryan will find Jackson a lot on check offs.

Anyway, good debate....................

 

[Miller]

As far as receptions, even if he isn't in on 3rd down, I think he will catch 50 passes just as a natural part of the offense. Atlanta didn't throw to backs on 1st/2nd down because Turner was not a good receiver. I think Ryan will find Jackson a lot on check offs.

Anyway, good debate....................

Who do you think it comes at the expense of? Do you see Tony G taking a step back as Jackson becomes more of a force in early down passing?

 

[discoverecology]

As far as ER's challenge, I never run from a fun challenge, so i would always consider it, but elf doesn't sound interested. If that changes, shoot me a PM and get it organized.

I'm down with whatever you guys are cooking up.

 

[Escrow]

did you even read my post above? The only thing i have stated is that Quizz will continue to be the 3rd down back and that Jacson will not catch 40/50 balls. Nothing of slowing down, nothing of not getting 1000 yards and in fact I said he will make a run at his 13 TD's from 2006. I think your 1500 yds is very doable. I see him going over 1300 on the ground.

They just don't have the need offensively to make him an every down back and run him into the ground at the age of 30 when they have other weapons and great specialists that can fill defined roles like a 3rd down back.

Man, didn't know stating that Quizz is going to be the 3rd down back in Atlanta would set off such a fire storm....relax people, your precious SJax will still get his, he just won't set a record for the most touches in a season and be responsible for 85% of the offensive production.

Sjax is a 3 down back...period. The notion that you think Jacquizz will be relevant this year is wrong. If the Falcons felt that Sjax was not their bell cow back, they wouldn't of signed him and used Jacquizz as a every-down back.

I don't think they go the Popovich approach here with Gonzo or Sjax....

 

[Axe Elf]

Sticking with LT...Remember 2009 when the Jets were good? Like REALLY good? They just made an appearance in the AFC championship game and fell to Peyton Manning's Colts.
The next year LT came over to the Jets. Was he not motivated? Was he not also chasing a ring? Didn't make a lick of difference.

Yeah, axually it kind of DID make a difference. Tomlinson had 884 combined yards in 14 games of 2009 with the Chargers, but when he came to the Jets, he started out 2010 on fire. He had 597 combined yards and 5 TDs in the first six weeks alone. But the Jets knew that Shonn Greene was their back of the future, and they started getting him more involved, and Tomlinson's involvement--and production--went down. Greene averaged only 9.6 rushing attempts per game in the first half of the season, but 13.5 over the second half of the season. So it wasn't just Tomlinson's age, it was how they used him.

Jackson has no such competition.

 

[Axe Elf]

As far as receptions, even if he isn't in on 3rd down, I think he will catch 50 passes just as a natural part of the offense. Atlanta didn't throw to backs on 1st/2nd down because Turner was not a good receiver. I think Ryan will find Jackson a lot on check offs.

Exactly. Dirk Koetter's offense is based around the screen pass to set up the vertical passing game.