Axe Elf's Sleepers & Stinkers: Week 2

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Axe Elf

Jeez, settle down, willya? It does take some time to research and write these things, you know.


QBs

Sleepers

Terrelle Pryor
Gotta go back to the Pryor well again with a home game against the Jaguars--who proved vulnerable to the run, if not the pass, last week against the Chiefs. Pryor shouldn’t do much more than 200/1/1 passing again, but he could approach the century mark in rushing again too--and this time he adds the rush TD to finish among the top QBs of the week with 25 or so in fantasy points.

Josh Freeman
One of last year’s best-kept secrets is that Josh Freeman was 9th among QBs in passing yards (4065) and 8th in passing TDs (27). His home opener against the Saints’ defense gives him plenty of opportunity to re-establish that pace after a sluggish road game. After a few dumpoffs to Doug Martin, Freeman will post 275/3.

Brandon Weeden
After the Baltimore pass defense looked like a rusted-out sieve last week, I have to go back to the well on Weeden again too. Maybe it was just Manning, but there was a lot of YAC that padded the QB stats, too. I really wish he had Gordon here, but if he can just get his guys to stop tipping the ball to defenders, Weeden should come out of Baltimore with 300+ yards, 2+ TDs and 1 INT.


Stinkers

Tom Brady
No Gronk, no Amendola, no Vereen, and Sudfeld and Thompkins can’t catch. Cromartie on Edelman, and Brady’s going to have to pass to... who? Brady is facing one of his worst weeks of 2013, and it will be another Brady miracle if he surpasses 225 yards passing and 1 TD. Throw in an INT and/or a fumble, and Brady will be flirting with single-digit fantasy points this week.

Tony Romo
Man, I hate having to put a guy I own in 41 leagues on the “stinkers” list, but his ribs are bruised, Dez’ foot is injured, and KC has one of the more solid secondaries in the league. This all adds up to a steady diet of DeMarco Murray and quick, short passes when necessary. Romo might add some garbage time stats to salvage his day, but the Chiefs will own him for most of the game. 235 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.

Colin Kaepernick
Seattle did an excellent job of containing both Cam Newton and his receivers in Week 1. Now they are at home with the benefit of the 12th man, and I think they can do the same with Kaepernick and his two main receiving threats--which I also hate to say, holding Boldin and Vernon in 15 and 35 leagues respectively as well. Still, I’m “Kaepping” Colin’s production at 215 yards passing with a TD and an INT, and 40 yards rushing. Of the three eyebrows remaining, two of them will belong to Wilson.



RBs

Sleepers

DeAngelo Williams
One of the bright spots for the Panthers against the stifling Seattle defense last week, Williams reached the century mark in combined rushing and receiving yards on 20 touches. The Bills allowed 46 yards rushing to Ridley on 9 carries (5.1 ypc) before he was benched, and then allowed 101 yards rushing to Vereen on 14 carries (7.2 ypc). Vereen also added 58 yards on 7 receptions. I like Williams to be a workhorse in this game and compile upwards of 130 total yards; with a TD he will be one of the highest-scoring fantasy RBs in Week 2.

Eddie Lacy
Start any and every RB facing the Redskins’ matador defense. Absolutely gosh darn right. I said that after they allowed long TD runs to Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene in Week 1 of the preseason, and I forgot about it last week when my blind disdain for LeSean McCoy led me to call him a stinker when he was facing that same Redskins’ matador defense. Oops. I won’t make that mistake again, and this week the beneficiary is Eddie Lacy, who will post over 100 combined yards and score at least once.

LeGarrette Blount
Ridley may start, but he will have a short leash, and Blount is the kind of guy who plays with a chip on his shoulder and makes the most of the opportunities he is given. If he gets on the field Thursday night, he might not leave--and if he doesn’t leave, he’ll amass 80 yards and a dunk TD.

Da’Rel Scott
Like Ridley, Wilson may start this game, but he wouldn’t if there were any experienced alternatives. One more fumble and it won’t matter; Scott will play even if he loses yards on every play. Scott has some moves and speed, though (4.34 forty), and he had a higher rushing average than Wilson when he got into the Dallas game. If he gets into the Denver game--and with an injured knee in practice, that may not happen--but if he does, he could exploit some weaknesses in Denver’s defensive line for 60 yards and a score. UPDATE: MRI results on injured knee negative.


Stinkers

CJ Spiller
Carolina has a killer defensive line, and they handed Marshawn Lynch a 5-point fantasy day on opening weekend. Spiller only managed a 5-point opening day himself--while Fred Jackson more than doubled him up. Don’t look for things to get much better this week for Spiller--hey, I told you not to draft him. 60 combined yards, no TD.

Daryl Richardson
You can ask Richardson about the toughness of the Cardinals’ run defense, as he saw some time on the trainer’s table himself en route to a 99-yard, no-score day in a game where he and Jared Cook were the Rams’ only offense. This week he faces an Atlanta defense that held the Saints to 2.7 yards per carry--and Isaiah Pead will be back to show what he can do if Richardson falters--and he will--to the tune of 65 combined scoreless yards.

Reggie Bush
After a huge opening day, this may be my most foolish call of the week. Still, Reggie is a little banged up (thumb, groin), Joique Bell looked entirely capable of carrying the load in his absence, and the Arizona defense is twice as good as the Minnesota defense he faced in Week 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bush gets a whole lot of rest this week, and posts a meager 70 combined yards with no end zone.

Arian Foster
Foster is still facing a timeshare with Ben Tate, and also facing a Titans’ D that might be better than expected after holding Pittsburgh to just 32 yards rushing in Week 1. Now, the Texans have more talent at RB than Pittsburgh right now, but things are still pretty dicey in terms of getting first-round production out of this first-round draft pick. Foster underperformed my prediction in Week 1, but I’d be surprised if he goes two weeks without scoring. So I’ll make the same call I made last week--60 yards and a TD.
 
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Axe Elf

WRs

Sleepers

Cecil Shorts
Cecil should bounce back nicely after last week, since he has a better QB with a healthy hand, and he’s playing the Raiders instead of the Chiefs. It doesn’t look like Marcedes Lewis will be back for this game, so Shorts will be the only show in town, worthy of 8 catches for 125 yards and at least one trip to paydirt.

Jerome Simpson
Jerome Simpson quietly led the Vikings with more than twice as many catches as any other WR or TE (7 rec on 8 targets), more than four times as many yards as any other Viking (140), and earned more fantasy points in Week 1 than Marques Colston, Julio Jones, Hakeem Nicks or Mike Williams. I’ll bet Simpson, not Jennings, turns out to be the Viking WR to own this year. The Bears were torched by AJ Green last week, so I’m going to call for an encore and a score--6/120/TD.

Travis Benjamin
The Ravens couldn’t cover any Denver WRs on opening night, and Benjamin had 8 targets in the Miami game. I could almost put Davone Bess here, who had 10, but Benjamin has more speed, and thus, more playmaking ability. I’m going to call him to break one off against Baltimore’s beleaguered secondary. 5 catches, 110 yards, TD.

Marlon Brown
Flacco’s newfound darling should run free with Joe Haden shutting down Torrey Smith this week--much like Brian Hartline did last week with Haden eliminating Wallace in Week 1. Hartline was good for 9 receptions, 114 yards and a score; I’ll give Brown 7 receptions, 100+ yards and the score.

Santana Moss
Slot receiver Anquan Boldin fared pretty well against the Packers’ secondary last week, and RG3 looked for slot receiver Santana Moss often against the Eagles. (Moss had 9 targets behind only Garcon’s 11.) When you do the math, you come up with a big game for Moss--6 catches, 100 yards and a TD.

Harry Douglas
With Roddy White limited by his high ankle sprain, Harry Douglas stepped in to lead the Falcons in receiving yardage. Julio will outgain him this week, but he’ll still hold his own with 80 yards on 5 catches and a score.

TJ Graham
The Bills intend to throw more down the field this week, and if there’s any way to bypass the outstanding front seven of the Panthers, it’s to attack their secondary. The only big play the Seahawks were able to muster last week was a 43 yard TD pass. I’m handing TJ Graham the Jermaine Kearse role this week, and calling a 40+ yard TD for him to round out a 3 catch, 80 yard scoring day.

Brandon Gibson
Taking up the slack in the seam for Dustin Keller, Gibson put up a quiet 7/77 against Cleveland. I’m not ready to hand him a TD this week, but if you need a solid 15 PPR points from a guy you can get off the waiver wire, pick up Gibson for his 6-8 catches and 60-80 yards.


Stinkers

Dez Bryant
Sure to cause grumbling amongst his owners--who paid dearly for him in their drafts--Dez is likely to put up a second straight stinker to open the season. His foot is injured and the KC secondary is at least as capable as the Giants’ DBs to keep him under wraps this week. Maybe Dez will break out against the Rams at home in Week 3, but Week 2 is likely to be Week 1 redux--3 catches, 40 yards, no score.

Marques Colston
Inconsistency has been a maddening facet of Marques Colston ownership for some time now. After his 5 catches for 68 yards and a score last week, you can look for 50 yards on 4 catches as Colston vacations on Revis Island this week.

Torrey Smith
See Marlon Brown. Joe Haden + WR = not good. Smith will be held under 60 yards on 4 catches and won’t get in the end zone.

Demaryius Thomas
The Giants took Dallas’ stud WR1 out of the game last week. Granted, they will have a lot more to worry about while defending the Broncos, but that’s also a reason why Manning din’t force the ball to him when he was covered in the first half of the opener--and really, half his stats came on one breakaway play against Baltimore. New York should look to pressure Manning, which won’t play into Thomas’ deep-ball game. Look for more short range dumpoff passing, which will leave Thomas out in the cold this week. Give him 4 catches for 70 yards.

Anquan Boldin
The Seattle defense--specifically Richard Sherman--won’t give up 200 yards to Boldin on their home field. It will probly be more like 75 yards on 6 catches.

Andre Johnson
In the last two years, Andre Johnson has put up back-to-back 100+ weeks only once. The Titans’ defense kinda shut down Roethlisberger and company last week, so I’d say chances are slim for AJ to pass the century mark again--and of course he never scores much anyway (14 TDs the last 3 years combined). 5 catches for 80 yards is about all you can expect.


TEs

Sleepers

Jordan Cameron
It’s one more week without Gordon for the Browns, Greg Little is disappointing, and the Ravens din’t exactly shut down Denver’s TE last week. It will be A-B-C, as simple as 1-2-3 for JC, with triple digit yardage (100), double digit receptions (10), and single digit TDs (1).

Kellen Winslow
Kerley’s got a concussion, Holmes isn’t all the way back, and Geno Smith looked Winslow’s way for 7/79/1 in Week 1. That’s got to be the floor for Winslow’s Week 2 stats.

Garrett Graham
Schaub seems to be looking at his TEs frequently--both of them. This week Owen Daniels has been limited in practice with groin and back issues. I guarantee nobody outside of a 20 man league will be even THINKING about rostering Garrett Graham, but if you need an emergency PPR flex in a large league, there are starter’s points to be had here, on 5 catches, 45 yards and a TD.

Fred Davis
Green Bay didn’t stop the 49ers TE last week, so Fred Davis might improve on his Week 1 performance. I’m not going crazy here, but 50 yards on 4 catches with one of them in the end zone doesn’t seem impossible.

Brandon Pettigrew
The Arizona Cardinals did a pretty good job on defense last week against the Rams, but for some reason, they declined to cover the TE. With Peterson on Megatron and Bush not at 100%, there’s some inclination to believe that Pettigrew will be more involved in the game this week--including a short TD to make his 4/25 more worthwhile.


Stinkers

Kyle Rudolph
The last time he faced the Bears, Rudolph posted 0 catches for 0 yards. I know that one red zone look could make his fantasy points a lot better, but barring that, Rudolph shouldn’t exceed 2 catches for 30 yards.

Jermichael Finley
Finley sought treatment and was limited in practice this week for a toe injury. Toe injuries tend to be pretty hard on receivers, limiting their burst and ability to make cuts and gain separation. With the number of options in the Packers’ arsenal, Finley won’t play a big role this week. 3 catches, 25 yards.

Tony Gonzalez
I’m a little hesitant to include this one, as Roddy White’s limitations could mean more business for Gonzo--but I just have the feeling that the dumpoffs are going to go to Steven Jackson this week. The more times they can get the ball into his hands, the more chances he will have to show up his old Rams teammates, and the Falcons should take advantage of that motivation. Gonzo goes wanting on 3 catches for 30 yards and no goalpost dunk this week.

Greg Olsen
Olsen was targeted 10 times in Week 1, but he only caught the ball five times and the Panther offense sputtered. Buffalo shut down another team that traditionally features the TE position last week (New England), and may not have much to fear from Carolina if they can do it again. 4 catches and 50 yards for Olsen might give Buffalo a chance.

Vernon Davis
Yet another victim of the suffocating Seahawks secondary in this game will be Vernon Davis. Kaepernick will target him frequently, but connect with him less than he would like--5 catches for 60 yards, but no score.
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
Nice work again Axe. Thanks for taking the time to turn out a fun read. Best of luck at getting nearer that 60 % mark. Here's to hoping. :cheers:
 
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Axe Elf

BONUS PLAYER: The more I think about it, the more I like Brent Celek as a sleeper TE too.

None of the WR2s have really stepped up for the Eagles, and Vick seems to look to Celek as a security blanket. He was next in targets behind Jackson and Cooper, and posted 56 yards and a TD in Week 1. The Chargers were scorched by both of Houston's TEs last week, so I like Celek to post another score on 3 catches and 40 yards.
 

Anthrax

New Member
Thanks Elf. Had to track you down from the other site just so I could see these. I hope you're wrong about Bush and Romo.
 
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Axe Elf

Hey Anthrax... How are they faring without me? lol

You and I seemed to be on the same page about a lot of players, so I hope you are taking up the slack in my absence.

Parenthetically, I hope I am too.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
The blount thing intrigues me... as well as worries me from a Ridley standpoint..
I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Blount is a bum. Only way he takes over is if Ridley puts it on the ground this week. Even if that's the case, Blount will unimpress his way out of the RB1 role in NE in a matter of games.

Only way Blount has value is if he gets 3rd down work and catches passes.
 

cctekguy

Staff member
I wouldn't worry too much about Blount, Giz. His name fits him. He's a blunt object hammering into the line.

He was given the shot at "every down back" in Tampa and all that resulted in was Doug Martin getting drafted.

He could be used as a pawn to further punish Ridley but don't expect it to stick.

Blount also had a bout with fumble-itis in TB but I think maybe he is over it.
 
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Axe Elf

Yeah, I don't see Blount as a long-term solution either. He has a chance to do something tonight, while they are still punishing Ridley, but that's about it. He would have to about double what I project for him to take over the starting role.
 
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Axe Elf

Nice job Axe... would you start Cook @ Atl over Vernon D. @ Sea this week in a ppr league?
As much as I'm surprised by how much they are using Cook, he seems to be the only receiver that's working out for them at the moment. Personally, I would have a hard time starting Cook over Vernon because of my prejudice, but for this week, Cook might very well score more points.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Yeah, I don't see Blount as a long-term solution either. He has a chance to do something tonight, while they are still punishing Ridley, but that's about it. He would have to about double what I project for him to take over the starting role.
Good assessment.

Let's say Ridley doesn't set himself back tonight, what's the range of carries for Blount?

I think it's less than 8 real in game carries. Those clock killing 4th quarter handoffs that go for 1 yd against a stacked box don't count for me. I'm thinking he might have a chance to catch 4 passes tho
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
As we are now entering the "clock kill" portion of the game, Blount has 4 carries to Ridley's 15. 1 target for Blount, no receptions. Yikes
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Well at least Chris isn't making lineup calls with disclaimers.

I'm sure this would be real helpful to answer a question..
Who should I start between Ingram and Hillman??

"Take Hillman, I see him getting 13+ carries and a handful of catches. If he doesn't get those carried or targets tho, I'm not responsible"

That's the difference between your "genius" and Chris' picks. He goes black or white. It's definitive. He doesn't need to take avenues to protect his precious ego when handicapping.
 
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