A
Axe Elf
There is a principle in fantasy football known as the "Third Year Rule." The lesson to be learned is that a superstar WR very often has a breakout season in their third year in the NFL. Historically, this has held true for guys like Cris Carter, Keyshawn Johnson, Terrell Owens, Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Steve Smith, Stevie Johnson, Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree. In 2012, this principle pointed you toward third-year WRs Antonio Brown (who finished the season scoring TDs in four straight games), Danario Alexander (who put up 658/7 in basically the second half of the season with the Chargers), Mike Williams (996/9 on the season; #16 in fantasy scoring among WRs), Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas (#7 and #5 in fantasy scoring among WRs, respectively), and Dez Bryant (#3 in WR fantasy scoring).
The “Third Year Charm” is ready explode all over the NFL in 2013, with several third-year players having already made a name for themselves in their sophomore seasons. Among them are A.J. Green and Julio Jones, each of whom went over 1000 yards and double-digit TDs in 2012. There’s not much room for a third-year improvement there, as both are already enjoying ADPs in the 2nd round. You might find a little more value at Randall Cobb’s 3.07 ADP, as his third year should see an improvement on last year’s 954/8 in the absence of Greg Jennings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cobb perform more like a second-round pick this season. With an ADP of 5.11, Torrey Smith should almost certainly enhance his 2012 numbers of 855/8 as the primary Ravens’ WR in the wake of Boldin’s departure. Just another 150 yards and 2 TDs would put him solidly in the top 15 WRs--which means he’s currently being drafted about a round and a half too late. Finally, there is Cecil Shorts, who is really kind of the Rodney Dangerfield of this group--getting no respect as the 37th WR off the draft board at 8.08 after finishing 2012 as the 22nd-best fantasy scoring WR (one notch ahead of Torrey Smith). Shorts’ situation in Jacksonville probly doesn’t give him the potential for improving his 2012 stats (979/7) that Smith and Cobb have, but Blackmon’s 4 game suspension and the lack of any other serious contenders for targets would suggest that Shorts could again perform as a low end WR2 or a high end WR3--especially in the first half of the fantasy season. Any benefit he gets from the third year charm would just be gravy.
But you don’t come to sit at the feet of Axe Elf just to hear that WRs who finished in the top 25 at their position last year should be good again this year. You can buy magazines that will tell you that. You come to Axe Elf to hear about the NEXT group of third year WRs--the ones that will probly be overlooked by everyone who failed to make that pilgrimage.
Let’s start with Joe Morgan--the man who made Devery Henderson expendable in New Orleans (and who was the subject of one of the best replays of last season).
[video=youtube;LGFi0cmlEQg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGFi0cmlEQg[/video]
There is every indication that this third-year human highlight reel will be the WR3 for one of the most productive passing offenses in the league. Although he only amassed 379 yards and 3 TDs in 2012, you have to keep in mind that those numbers were the result of only TEN catches. He may end up fifth in targets behind Colston, Moore, Graham and Sproles, but at nearly 40 yards per catch and a TD every 3.33 catches, what if he gets just 30 catches on the season? Morgan could be worth a late round flier as a bye week or flex player in deeper leagues, and should be on your waiver wire speed dial in any league.
Next up is the Redskins’ third-year WR Leonard Hankerson. It’s almost not fair to judge him by the third-year yardstick this season, after spending most of his rookie season sidelined with a hip injury. However, Hankerson carries the promise of having broken Michael Irvin’s single-season TD record at Miami University, and his 543 yards in 2012 were only 90 less than Pierre Garcon and only 30 less than Santana Moss. He finished with more yards and TDs than “starter” Josh Morgan on fewer targets (55-69), and recorded only 3 drops--better than Garcon (5), Moss (6) and Morgan (7). He was 2nd to Morgan on the team in total WR snaps played (589); 125 more than third-place Moss. The main problem is that Morgan is a far superior blocker, and that’s important in Shanahan’s offense--so Hankerson is really going to have to shine as a receiver to earn his share of touches. Still, with an aging Moss and an injury-prone Garcon on the roster, he’s in a position where the third year charm could bless him--and his fantasy owners--in 2013. If Hankerson does become a major part of the offense this season, he could be a playoff beast, with home games in fantasy weeks 12, 13, 14 and 16--and the Redskins don’t face a top-10 passing defense after week 12.
The infusion of a Norv Turner offense has set the third-year breakout stage for Greg Little in Cleveland. Little’s 2012 stat line of 647/4 could easily swell to something like 850/6 in 2013, which would have ranked him 29th among fantasy WRs last year. That’s a pretty solid WR3 in 12-team leagues, who currently does not rank among the top 70 WRs off the mock draft boards in 2013--nice value to be had there!
Denarius Moore is also entering his third season, but unfortunately, being mired in the Oakland team woes probably means that his 2012 numbers of 741/7 are as much of a ceiling as they are a floor. Moore also enjoyed the lion’s share of those numbers in the first half of the season, so he’s riding no particular momentum into the current season, either. I’d be surprised to see Denarius make "Moore" of his situation than a fair to passable WR3 in most typical leagues.
The final third-year WR I will discuss here offers what is probly the most exciting potential value of any of this season’s crop. That WR is, of course, Jeremy Kerley.
Whoa, whoa, whoa... it wasn’t necessary to make that noise! Just hear me out a second, will you? Jeez...
First of all, let’s look at what Kerley did as a second-year WR. His 2 TDs were of course underwhelming, but his 827 yards were respectable. More impressive is the fact that Kerley recorded only 2 drops on 67 targets all season. In the deep passing game (20+ yards), Kerley ranked first among all qualifying WRs in his Catch Rate, catching 10 of 15 passes with no drops. And let’s not forget that he did this in one of the most anemic offenses with one of the worst QBs in the league throwing to him.
Next, let’s look at his competition. The team’s de facto WR1, Santonio Holmes, is still not fully recovered from last year’s Lisfranc injury, and it appears that he may start this year’s training camp on the PUP list. Stephen Hill is recovering from knee surgery, and is still experiencing swelling and fluid in his knee. Clyde Gates (a third-year WR himself) has been hampered for weeks with a hamstring injury. Now it’s true that Kerley did himself suffer an injury to his heel this past Wednesday, but he still should be the healthiest of all these WRs heading into mini-camp, so he will have the inside track on developing chemistry with what appears to be an upgrade at the Jets’ QB position for 2013.
Let’s look a little more closely at that QB upgrade. Although Rex Ryan has been non-committal, the general consensus among observers is that Geno Smith will be the Jets’ starting QB come week 1 of the regular season. Geno Smith, of course, hails from West Virginia, where he made a name for himself throwing to Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Of the two, he threw to Bailey for more yards (1622-1289) and more TDs (25-12) last year. Now let’s compare Stedman Bailey and Jeremy Kerley. Bailey is 5’10” and weighs 193 lbs. Kerley is 5’10” and weighs 189 lbs. Bailey ran a 4.52 40 yard dash and recorded a 34.5” vertical jump at the combine this season; Kerley ran a 4.56 40 yard dash and recorded a 34.5” vertical jump at his combine in 2011. Kerley is actually the stronger receiver, posting 16 reps on the 225 lb bench press to Bailey’s 11--but mechanically, Geno Smith should already feel familiar with throwing to Kerley--because he has basically been throwing to the same type of guy for the last three years in college.
Finally, let’s look at the Jets’ schedule. I have not looked at the strength of schedule in the passing game for all 32 teams yet, but the Jets have to be facing one of the easiest. Their opponents averaged worse than 20th in passing defense in 2012, and they play home games against the 20th, 25th, 27th, 29th, 31st and 32nd ranked passing defenses, with road games against the 17th, 23rd, 26th, 27th and 29th ranked passing defenses. That’s 11 of 16 weeks facing cupcake passing defenses, including three home games against the 20th, 25th, and 27th ranked passing defenses in fantasy playoff weeks 13-16. The lone road game in that stretch is against 13th-ranked Carolina in week 15.
I think it’s entirely possible that Kerley could bring last year’s 827 yards up to 1000 in 2013. If his third-year charm can just raise that 2 TD total up to 6 or 7, Kerley is going to be right on the cusp of being a top 20 WR--and like Greg Little, he currently does not have an ADP among the top 70 WRs being drafted!
You’re welcome.
The “Third Year Charm” is ready explode all over the NFL in 2013, with several third-year players having already made a name for themselves in their sophomore seasons. Among them are A.J. Green and Julio Jones, each of whom went over 1000 yards and double-digit TDs in 2012. There’s not much room for a third-year improvement there, as both are already enjoying ADPs in the 2nd round. You might find a little more value at Randall Cobb’s 3.07 ADP, as his third year should see an improvement on last year’s 954/8 in the absence of Greg Jennings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cobb perform more like a second-round pick this season. With an ADP of 5.11, Torrey Smith should almost certainly enhance his 2012 numbers of 855/8 as the primary Ravens’ WR in the wake of Boldin’s departure. Just another 150 yards and 2 TDs would put him solidly in the top 15 WRs--which means he’s currently being drafted about a round and a half too late. Finally, there is Cecil Shorts, who is really kind of the Rodney Dangerfield of this group--getting no respect as the 37th WR off the draft board at 8.08 after finishing 2012 as the 22nd-best fantasy scoring WR (one notch ahead of Torrey Smith). Shorts’ situation in Jacksonville probly doesn’t give him the potential for improving his 2012 stats (979/7) that Smith and Cobb have, but Blackmon’s 4 game suspension and the lack of any other serious contenders for targets would suggest that Shorts could again perform as a low end WR2 or a high end WR3--especially in the first half of the fantasy season. Any benefit he gets from the third year charm would just be gravy.
But you don’t come to sit at the feet of Axe Elf just to hear that WRs who finished in the top 25 at their position last year should be good again this year. You can buy magazines that will tell you that. You come to Axe Elf to hear about the NEXT group of third year WRs--the ones that will probly be overlooked by everyone who failed to make that pilgrimage.
Let’s start with Joe Morgan--the man who made Devery Henderson expendable in New Orleans (and who was the subject of one of the best replays of last season).
[video=youtube;LGFi0cmlEQg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGFi0cmlEQg[/video]
There is every indication that this third-year human highlight reel will be the WR3 for one of the most productive passing offenses in the league. Although he only amassed 379 yards and 3 TDs in 2012, you have to keep in mind that those numbers were the result of only TEN catches. He may end up fifth in targets behind Colston, Moore, Graham and Sproles, but at nearly 40 yards per catch and a TD every 3.33 catches, what if he gets just 30 catches on the season? Morgan could be worth a late round flier as a bye week or flex player in deeper leagues, and should be on your waiver wire speed dial in any league.
Next up is the Redskins’ third-year WR Leonard Hankerson. It’s almost not fair to judge him by the third-year yardstick this season, after spending most of his rookie season sidelined with a hip injury. However, Hankerson carries the promise of having broken Michael Irvin’s single-season TD record at Miami University, and his 543 yards in 2012 were only 90 less than Pierre Garcon and only 30 less than Santana Moss. He finished with more yards and TDs than “starter” Josh Morgan on fewer targets (55-69), and recorded only 3 drops--better than Garcon (5), Moss (6) and Morgan (7). He was 2nd to Morgan on the team in total WR snaps played (589); 125 more than third-place Moss. The main problem is that Morgan is a far superior blocker, and that’s important in Shanahan’s offense--so Hankerson is really going to have to shine as a receiver to earn his share of touches. Still, with an aging Moss and an injury-prone Garcon on the roster, he’s in a position where the third year charm could bless him--and his fantasy owners--in 2013. If Hankerson does become a major part of the offense this season, he could be a playoff beast, with home games in fantasy weeks 12, 13, 14 and 16--and the Redskins don’t face a top-10 passing defense after week 12.
The infusion of a Norv Turner offense has set the third-year breakout stage for Greg Little in Cleveland. Little’s 2012 stat line of 647/4 could easily swell to something like 850/6 in 2013, which would have ranked him 29th among fantasy WRs last year. That’s a pretty solid WR3 in 12-team leagues, who currently does not rank among the top 70 WRs off the mock draft boards in 2013--nice value to be had there!
Denarius Moore is also entering his third season, but unfortunately, being mired in the Oakland team woes probably means that his 2012 numbers of 741/7 are as much of a ceiling as they are a floor. Moore also enjoyed the lion’s share of those numbers in the first half of the season, so he’s riding no particular momentum into the current season, either. I’d be surprised to see Denarius make "Moore" of his situation than a fair to passable WR3 in most typical leagues.
The final third-year WR I will discuss here offers what is probly the most exciting potential value of any of this season’s crop. That WR is, of course, Jeremy Kerley.
Whoa, whoa, whoa... it wasn’t necessary to make that noise! Just hear me out a second, will you? Jeez...
First of all, let’s look at what Kerley did as a second-year WR. His 2 TDs were of course underwhelming, but his 827 yards were respectable. More impressive is the fact that Kerley recorded only 2 drops on 67 targets all season. In the deep passing game (20+ yards), Kerley ranked first among all qualifying WRs in his Catch Rate, catching 10 of 15 passes with no drops. And let’s not forget that he did this in one of the most anemic offenses with one of the worst QBs in the league throwing to him.
Next, let’s look at his competition. The team’s de facto WR1, Santonio Holmes, is still not fully recovered from last year’s Lisfranc injury, and it appears that he may start this year’s training camp on the PUP list. Stephen Hill is recovering from knee surgery, and is still experiencing swelling and fluid in his knee. Clyde Gates (a third-year WR himself) has been hampered for weeks with a hamstring injury. Now it’s true that Kerley did himself suffer an injury to his heel this past Wednesday, but he still should be the healthiest of all these WRs heading into mini-camp, so he will have the inside track on developing chemistry with what appears to be an upgrade at the Jets’ QB position for 2013.
Let’s look a little more closely at that QB upgrade. Although Rex Ryan has been non-committal, the general consensus among observers is that Geno Smith will be the Jets’ starting QB come week 1 of the regular season. Geno Smith, of course, hails from West Virginia, where he made a name for himself throwing to Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Of the two, he threw to Bailey for more yards (1622-1289) and more TDs (25-12) last year. Now let’s compare Stedman Bailey and Jeremy Kerley. Bailey is 5’10” and weighs 193 lbs. Kerley is 5’10” and weighs 189 lbs. Bailey ran a 4.52 40 yard dash and recorded a 34.5” vertical jump at the combine this season; Kerley ran a 4.56 40 yard dash and recorded a 34.5” vertical jump at his combine in 2011. Kerley is actually the stronger receiver, posting 16 reps on the 225 lb bench press to Bailey’s 11--but mechanically, Geno Smith should already feel familiar with throwing to Kerley--because he has basically been throwing to the same type of guy for the last three years in college.
Finally, let’s look at the Jets’ schedule. I have not looked at the strength of schedule in the passing game for all 32 teams yet, but the Jets have to be facing one of the easiest. Their opponents averaged worse than 20th in passing defense in 2012, and they play home games against the 20th, 25th, 27th, 29th, 31st and 32nd ranked passing defenses, with road games against the 17th, 23rd, 26th, 27th and 29th ranked passing defenses. That’s 11 of 16 weeks facing cupcake passing defenses, including three home games against the 20th, 25th, and 27th ranked passing defenses in fantasy playoff weeks 13-16. The lone road game in that stretch is against 13th-ranked Carolina in week 15.
I think it’s entirely possible that Kerley could bring last year’s 827 yards up to 1000 in 2013. If his third-year charm can just raise that 2 TD total up to 6 or 7, Kerley is going to be right on the cusp of being a top 20 WR--and like Greg Little, he currently does not have an ADP among the top 70 WRs being drafted!
You’re welcome.