ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Name a couple sleepers and busts for their ADP value at every position.
QB
Bust: Andrew Luck. Still being way over drafted on the back of his 2014 season. Honestly, I don't see a whole lot here to love. The guy is mega talented, but I really don't think his weapons are all that special. He makes them good, not the other way around. Shaky offensive line and a sub par run game to help him out.
Bust: Tom Brady. While his 4 game suspension keeps his ADP in the fair range, this isn't a guy I have on any teams. In fact, I believe the only Pat I'm rostering anywhere is James White in one league. The QB age cliff is coming, and it could very well be this year.
Sleeper: Jameis Winston. Jameis is being selected as the #15 QB. There's no doubt in my mind that he has the upside and weapons to shock the hell out of us with a blow up year. It seems there is at least one of these guys every year, and there's kind of a trend among the type of player and selection range.
Cam Newton did it. Russ did it it. Luck did it. All young players who were drafted far outside the top 5 or even top 10 that made a meteoric rise. Bortles, Cousins, Tyrod all come to mind as recent young or inexperienced QBs who blew up.
With Evans, Vjax, and a couple good pass catching RBs in tow, this could easily be Jameis' turn.
Matthew Stafford: He's being taken one spot below Jameis, and it's mostly on the notion of "Well, Calvin is gone...so he's screwed". I'm not so sure about that. The Detroit offense really starting humming under new O coordinator Cooter, and he's around for year 2. The weapons here are all underrated in my opinion. Golden and Marvin Jones are underrated. If Ebron can get healthy he has a chance to be a breakout player. Multiple good RBs in the pass game. Situation could be a lot like Jax last year. Can't run the ball, can't play much defense. Game flow slants towards passing
Ryan Tannehill. This one is more of a gut call than anything. He comes with a price tag as being the 21st QB off the board, and should easily return value on that slot. Landry is a chain mover and Parker seems to be on a lot of sleeper lists this year. Throw in Foster as one of the best pass catching RBs in the league, and a low level rushing attack, and it's a recipe for lots of passing attempts. New head coach Adam Gase is a nice addition as well.
RB Busts
Adrian Peterson. That's right. My #1 DND player this year. 31 years old. 2400 career carries. Historically, this has rarely ever worked. The guy should be coming at a discount of a late 2nd round pick, but he never drops that far. The risk is simply too much.
Lamar Miller. The reasons for him being a late 1st round pick are warranted. He's a solid young runner in a plus type offense, with pass catching value, who essentially has no one pushing him for touches. These are the types of things that push value.
Something spooks me though. The biggest red flag for me is the fact that we haven't even hit week 1, and that offensive line is already pretty beat up. Starting center is done for the year. Neither starting guard has played in the preseason. Only one of them projects to be ready for week 1. Now I'm hearing that the LT is dinged up. Not good. You also have to factor in that this is a offense that returns the least amount of starters in the league. Can they gel as a unit when the O line is a mish mash? For me...I'm looking elsewhere in the 1st round.
Jamaal Charles. He's another version of AP for me. If you're all about high risk high reward, then Charles is your guy. He's 29 and coming off his 2nd reconstructive knee surgery. When he's right, he's among the best in the league. My worry is that he's not right. No sign of him in the preseason, and the most recent reports are that he might not be ready for week 1. The last place you want your 2nd round pick to be to start the season is where he's at. Still recovering from a gruesome injury.
RB Sleepers
Jeremy Langford. One of the few RBs in round 4 or later that you can feel comfortable about as a 3 down player. He's got big play ability, should have 40+ catches, and see a fair amount of goal line work. There's some worry about the O line, but the upside is here with the value of where you draft him to take the risk. Only real difference between him and a player like Lamar Miller is track record. Grab him!
Carlos Hyde. The other RB in the Langford range that has top 10 potential. Easily the more talented of the 2 players, but he doesn't quite check every box that Langford does. The jury is still out on how he can be featured in the pass game, but if he can prove himself as a receiver, Chip will use him. The biggest question is the offensive unit in general. Usage should be high, but can that offense sustain drives and stay in enough games to work the game flow in a RBs direction? For his price tag, I'm willing to find out.
Derrick Henry. At some point, you're going to have to pick a guy in a time share, and there's not much better choices than this dude. The Tennessee offense is looking improved, and they seem like they'll be committed to running the ball. Murray is getting up there in age and usage, and of all of the situations where a "lead RB" could go down, this is the one where I want to own the cuff. He presents enough usefulness without a DeMarco injury, and top 10 upside if Murray were to go down. I think he's a fantastic pick in keeper leagues where you can hold a player from year to year at the cost of whatever round you selected the player in.
WR Busts
Dez Bryant. I don't think I have to spell this one out for you. We're looking at half the season with a 4th round rookie QB throwing the ball. There's going to be some very humbling moments for Dak. I can't think of a single season where a rookie QB made his top WR weapon worth a 1st round value.
Jordy Nelson. Call it a gut feeling. Call it risk adversion. Call it whatever. This guy hasn't landed on a single one of my teams. Maybe I'm just scared of veteran players returning from knee surgery. I know I shouldn't really fear him this much considering his history with Rodgers, but I do. I can't even really make a strong case here, but I'm still staying away before the 3rd round.
Sleepers
Michael Floyd. I love this guys talent. I love his stats once he got healthy last year. I love his game tape. I love the fact that Larry Fitzgerald is getting old. I love the offense that he plays in. I love where he's being drafted.
Marvin Jones. I know I shouldn't be putting too much stock into the preseason, but I'm all in on this guy. He looks great out there and Stafford seems to like him. There's not exactly a lot of competition for targets, and I think he could actually outperform Golden Tate while going 2-3 rounds later. Solid red zone target.
Tajae Sharpe. This kid has a lower ceiling than most, but he's a likeky candidate to lead all rookie WRs in targets. Opportunity is huge in this game, and the doors are wide open here. Tennessee probably doesn't figure to be a prolific passing offense, but Sharpe has the size and route running ability to not be just a chain mover but a red zone target.
TE Busts
Gary Barnidge. Why Gary, why? Why are you fm eing drafted as the #7 fantasy TE? You had 1 good season in 8 years, and now your offensive coordinator and QB has changed. The team added Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon is coming back. There's a 30% drop in targets coming for a guy who is a career after thought. DND.
Jordan Reed. Great talent, but for the price tag I just can't get on board. One concussion away from seriously needing to look at hanging up the pads. It's not just the head injuries either. Guy has risk written all over him. Love the talent, love the situation, but he's being taken far too high for me.
Sleepers
Vance McDonald. He doesn't even have a 12 team ADP on FFC right now, which is just silly. Bruce Ellimgton is done for the year, Torrey has looked abysmal in the preseason, and SF is devoid of quality pass catchers. Had a nice little run going with Gabbert at QB to close the year in 2015. He's a young developing TE heading for a breakout year. Wouldn't be surprised if he's this years version of 2015 Jordan Reed.
Dwayne Allen. Indy had the opportunity to lock up a TE last year. They let Fleener walk and retained Allen. Sure, that might be because Fleener can't block, and Allen might be stuck to the O line more often than I'd like. Still, the last time Luck played 16 healthy games, this dude had 10 TDs while sharing duties with Fleener. Probably not a great PPR play, but he's got great upside in standard.
Who you got?
QB
Bust: Andrew Luck. Still being way over drafted on the back of his 2014 season. Honestly, I don't see a whole lot here to love. The guy is mega talented, but I really don't think his weapons are all that special. He makes them good, not the other way around. Shaky offensive line and a sub par run game to help him out.
Bust: Tom Brady. While his 4 game suspension keeps his ADP in the fair range, this isn't a guy I have on any teams. In fact, I believe the only Pat I'm rostering anywhere is James White in one league. The QB age cliff is coming, and it could very well be this year.
Sleeper: Jameis Winston. Jameis is being selected as the #15 QB. There's no doubt in my mind that he has the upside and weapons to shock the hell out of us with a blow up year. It seems there is at least one of these guys every year, and there's kind of a trend among the type of player and selection range.
Cam Newton did it. Russ did it it. Luck did it. All young players who were drafted far outside the top 5 or even top 10 that made a meteoric rise. Bortles, Cousins, Tyrod all come to mind as recent young or inexperienced QBs who blew up.
With Evans, Vjax, and a couple good pass catching RBs in tow, this could easily be Jameis' turn.
Matthew Stafford: He's being taken one spot below Jameis, and it's mostly on the notion of "Well, Calvin is gone...so he's screwed". I'm not so sure about that. The Detroit offense really starting humming under new O coordinator Cooter, and he's around for year 2. The weapons here are all underrated in my opinion. Golden and Marvin Jones are underrated. If Ebron can get healthy he has a chance to be a breakout player. Multiple good RBs in the pass game. Situation could be a lot like Jax last year. Can't run the ball, can't play much defense. Game flow slants towards passing
Ryan Tannehill. This one is more of a gut call than anything. He comes with a price tag as being the 21st QB off the board, and should easily return value on that slot. Landry is a chain mover and Parker seems to be on a lot of sleeper lists this year. Throw in Foster as one of the best pass catching RBs in the league, and a low level rushing attack, and it's a recipe for lots of passing attempts. New head coach Adam Gase is a nice addition as well.
RB Busts
Adrian Peterson. That's right. My #1 DND player this year. 31 years old. 2400 career carries. Historically, this has rarely ever worked. The guy should be coming at a discount of a late 2nd round pick, but he never drops that far. The risk is simply too much.
Lamar Miller. The reasons for him being a late 1st round pick are warranted. He's a solid young runner in a plus type offense, with pass catching value, who essentially has no one pushing him for touches. These are the types of things that push value.
Something spooks me though. The biggest red flag for me is the fact that we haven't even hit week 1, and that offensive line is already pretty beat up. Starting center is done for the year. Neither starting guard has played in the preseason. Only one of them projects to be ready for week 1. Now I'm hearing that the LT is dinged up. Not good. You also have to factor in that this is a offense that returns the least amount of starters in the league. Can they gel as a unit when the O line is a mish mash? For me...I'm looking elsewhere in the 1st round.
Jamaal Charles. He's another version of AP for me. If you're all about high risk high reward, then Charles is your guy. He's 29 and coming off his 2nd reconstructive knee surgery. When he's right, he's among the best in the league. My worry is that he's not right. No sign of him in the preseason, and the most recent reports are that he might not be ready for week 1. The last place you want your 2nd round pick to be to start the season is where he's at. Still recovering from a gruesome injury.
RB Sleepers
Jeremy Langford. One of the few RBs in round 4 or later that you can feel comfortable about as a 3 down player. He's got big play ability, should have 40+ catches, and see a fair amount of goal line work. There's some worry about the O line, but the upside is here with the value of where you draft him to take the risk. Only real difference between him and a player like Lamar Miller is track record. Grab him!
Carlos Hyde. The other RB in the Langford range that has top 10 potential. Easily the more talented of the 2 players, but he doesn't quite check every box that Langford does. The jury is still out on how he can be featured in the pass game, but if he can prove himself as a receiver, Chip will use him. The biggest question is the offensive unit in general. Usage should be high, but can that offense sustain drives and stay in enough games to work the game flow in a RBs direction? For his price tag, I'm willing to find out.
Derrick Henry. At some point, you're going to have to pick a guy in a time share, and there's not much better choices than this dude. The Tennessee offense is looking improved, and they seem like they'll be committed to running the ball. Murray is getting up there in age and usage, and of all of the situations where a "lead RB" could go down, this is the one where I want to own the cuff. He presents enough usefulness without a DeMarco injury, and top 10 upside if Murray were to go down. I think he's a fantastic pick in keeper leagues where you can hold a player from year to year at the cost of whatever round you selected the player in.
WR Busts
Dez Bryant. I don't think I have to spell this one out for you. We're looking at half the season with a 4th round rookie QB throwing the ball. There's going to be some very humbling moments for Dak. I can't think of a single season where a rookie QB made his top WR weapon worth a 1st round value.
Jordy Nelson. Call it a gut feeling. Call it risk adversion. Call it whatever. This guy hasn't landed on a single one of my teams. Maybe I'm just scared of veteran players returning from knee surgery. I know I shouldn't really fear him this much considering his history with Rodgers, but I do. I can't even really make a strong case here, but I'm still staying away before the 3rd round.
Sleepers
Michael Floyd. I love this guys talent. I love his stats once he got healthy last year. I love his game tape. I love the fact that Larry Fitzgerald is getting old. I love the offense that he plays in. I love where he's being drafted.
Marvin Jones. I know I shouldn't be putting too much stock into the preseason, but I'm all in on this guy. He looks great out there and Stafford seems to like him. There's not exactly a lot of competition for targets, and I think he could actually outperform Golden Tate while going 2-3 rounds later. Solid red zone target.
Tajae Sharpe. This kid has a lower ceiling than most, but he's a likeky candidate to lead all rookie WRs in targets. Opportunity is huge in this game, and the doors are wide open here. Tennessee probably doesn't figure to be a prolific passing offense, but Sharpe has the size and route running ability to not be just a chain mover but a red zone target.
TE Busts
Gary Barnidge. Why Gary, why? Why are you fm eing drafted as the #7 fantasy TE? You had 1 good season in 8 years, and now your offensive coordinator and QB has changed. The team added Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon is coming back. There's a 30% drop in targets coming for a guy who is a career after thought. DND.
Jordan Reed. Great talent, but for the price tag I just can't get on board. One concussion away from seriously needing to look at hanging up the pads. It's not just the head injuries either. Guy has risk written all over him. Love the talent, love the situation, but he's being taken far too high for me.
Sleepers
Vance McDonald. He doesn't even have a 12 team ADP on FFC right now, which is just silly. Bruce Ellimgton is done for the year, Torrey has looked abysmal in the preseason, and SF is devoid of quality pass catchers. Had a nice little run going with Gabbert at QB to close the year in 2015. He's a young developing TE heading for a breakout year. Wouldn't be surprised if he's this years version of 2015 Jordan Reed.
Dwayne Allen. Indy had the opportunity to lock up a TE last year. They let Fleener walk and retained Allen. Sure, that might be because Fleener can't block, and Allen might be stuck to the O line more often than I'd like. Still, the last time Luck played 16 healthy games, this dude had 10 TDs while sharing duties with Fleener. Probably not a great PPR play, but he's got great upside in standard.
Who you got?
