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Axe Elf
I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for the underdog; here are six dogs that I’m hoping won’t bite me this week--as five of them are on the road.
Boise State +3.5
Fresno State
This may not be your older stepbrother’s Boise State, but they are learning quickly. After losing to Washington 38-6 they bounced back with a trouncing of Tennessee-Martin (duh) and then beat Air Force by more than I expected (although less than the spread). Fresno State is playing their third straight home game, after their contest with Colorado last week was postponed due to the flooding. They beat Rutgers by 1 point in the home opener, when Rutgers failed on a 2 point conversion attempt in the first overtime, and then beat Cal Poly by only 16 in their first two games, neither of which really convince me that they should be more than 3 point favorites over Boise State. With the Bulldogs’ defense allowing a combined 76 points in those first two games, the Broncos should be able to score at will--and they are a perfect 7-0 against Fresno State (both straight up and against the spread) in their last 7 meetings.
Michigan State +7
Notre Dame
Akron played Michigan closer than did Notre Dame--who then struggled to beat a Purdue team who had barely overcome Indiana State the week before. Granted, the Irish will be the toughest team that Michigan State has faced thus far, but the Spartans have not really struggled in any of their first three games, and I like them a lot with the TD headstart.
Wake Forest
Army +3.5
Wake Forest beat Presbyterian but then lost to Boston College by 14 and lost to Louisiana-Monroe by 2--at home. In fact, they have lost six of their last eight games dating back to last season, and have not defeated an FBS team since Nov. 3, 2012. Now they go on the road to Army, which played a pretty respectable game against #5 Stanford last week, losing by only 14. Army is the nation’s #7 team in rushing, even after facing a top 5 defense, and that ball control style should at least keep the game close.
Utah +7
BYU
BYU has done what exactly to warrant being a TD favorite--beat a Texas team that isn’t looking very good this year, and lost to Virginia? Utah beat one in-state rival Utah State and then showed a lot of resiliency in taking Oregon State to a 45-45 overtime game. The Utes are among the better teams in the country in stopping the run, and BYU runs the ball 64% of the time. Similarly, BYU is better at stopping the run than the pass, and Utah runs 60% of the time. This all should lead to a fairly low-scoring game and give Utah a chance to cover, if not win the State Championship outright by sweeping Utah State and BYU.
Kansas State +5.5
Texas
Kansas State under Bill Snyder has traditionally had Texas’ number--even on the road, and even when Texas wasn’t struggling as much as they are this year. The Wildcats are 5-0 vs Texas since 2003. Texas has had a hard time stopping the run already, specifically the option, and with LB Dalton Santos a likely scratch with a leg injury, option-running QB Daniel Sams should get his first start to help KSU exploit that weakness. Additionally, four more key starters may miss this game for Texas, including QB David Ash, utility RB/WR Daje Johnson, OT Josh Cochran, and #1 TE Greg Daniels. K-State should stay within a field goal, if not win outright.
Arizona State +7
Stanford
As previously mentioned, Stanford struggled a little with Army last week, although they have put 34 points on the board in each of their first two games. They might find the going a little harder against ASU’s 20th ranked scoring defense than they did against Army or San Jose State, however. The Sun Devils got a little help from the officials to beat Wisconsin last week, but scored 32 points against a top 20 program themselves. I like them to stay within a TD of the Cardinal.
Boise State +3.5
Fresno State
This may not be your older stepbrother’s Boise State, but they are learning quickly. After losing to Washington 38-6 they bounced back with a trouncing of Tennessee-Martin (duh) and then beat Air Force by more than I expected (although less than the spread). Fresno State is playing their third straight home game, after their contest with Colorado last week was postponed due to the flooding. They beat Rutgers by 1 point in the home opener, when Rutgers failed on a 2 point conversion attempt in the first overtime, and then beat Cal Poly by only 16 in their first two games, neither of which really convince me that they should be more than 3 point favorites over Boise State. With the Bulldogs’ defense allowing a combined 76 points in those first two games, the Broncos should be able to score at will--and they are a perfect 7-0 against Fresno State (both straight up and against the spread) in their last 7 meetings.
Michigan State +7
Notre Dame
Akron played Michigan closer than did Notre Dame--who then struggled to beat a Purdue team who had barely overcome Indiana State the week before. Granted, the Irish will be the toughest team that Michigan State has faced thus far, but the Spartans have not really struggled in any of their first three games, and I like them a lot with the TD headstart.
Wake Forest
Army +3.5
Wake Forest beat Presbyterian but then lost to Boston College by 14 and lost to Louisiana-Monroe by 2--at home. In fact, they have lost six of their last eight games dating back to last season, and have not defeated an FBS team since Nov. 3, 2012. Now they go on the road to Army, which played a pretty respectable game against #5 Stanford last week, losing by only 14. Army is the nation’s #7 team in rushing, even after facing a top 5 defense, and that ball control style should at least keep the game close.
Utah +7
BYU
BYU has done what exactly to warrant being a TD favorite--beat a Texas team that isn’t looking very good this year, and lost to Virginia? Utah beat one in-state rival Utah State and then showed a lot of resiliency in taking Oregon State to a 45-45 overtime game. The Utes are among the better teams in the country in stopping the run, and BYU runs the ball 64% of the time. Similarly, BYU is better at stopping the run than the pass, and Utah runs 60% of the time. This all should lead to a fairly low-scoring game and give Utah a chance to cover, if not win the State Championship outright by sweeping Utah State and BYU.
Kansas State +5.5
Texas
Kansas State under Bill Snyder has traditionally had Texas’ number--even on the road, and even when Texas wasn’t struggling as much as they are this year. The Wildcats are 5-0 vs Texas since 2003. Texas has had a hard time stopping the run already, specifically the option, and with LB Dalton Santos a likely scratch with a leg injury, option-running QB Daniel Sams should get his first start to help KSU exploit that weakness. Additionally, four more key starters may miss this game for Texas, including QB David Ash, utility RB/WR Daje Johnson, OT Josh Cochran, and #1 TE Greg Daniels. K-State should stay within a field goal, if not win outright.
Arizona State +7
Stanford
As previously mentioned, Stanford struggled a little with Army last week, although they have put 34 points on the board in each of their first two games. They might find the going a little harder against ASU’s 20th ranked scoring defense than they did against Army or San Jose State, however. The Sun Devils got a little help from the officials to beat Wisconsin last week, but scored 32 points against a top 20 program themselves. I like them to stay within a TD of the Cardinal.