Khalil Mack and other big extensions... LeVeon Bell...

[Phicinfan]

Wanted to break this out in a seperate thread so it didn't get lost in the other big news items...


So here is the latest:
OBJ Wr NYG - has a huge deal to stay with the Giants - to me this works...why? Well for one, he is without a doubt one of the elite receivers in the game. Two, they just got an incredible Rb to help support him, and addressed the O-line. But what is the last key? There starting Qb is expensive, but he is also close to gone. So they will either be going with a young Qb they have or draft a young Qb at a much cheaper price - net they could afford to keep him.

Aaron Donald DE Rams - this is a win now move for Rams - they still have some time with a young Qb in first contract AND they have done some other contracts that spread out the hits. This defense will be scary good for a while, and they have a y0ung Qb and Rb to run the offense.

Aaron Rodgers Qb Green Bay - Big mistake in my view. Yes he is without a doubt one of the elite Qbs there are. But....They have no veteran Wrs to lean on(Adams in 2nd year?) , Running game is a mess, OL is a mess and defense is built on draft picks(congrats on cb picks they made!). Problem is, Green bay isn't that good in drafting and they just crippled the franchise with this contract. Mark my words, this will end up hurting the Packers in the next 2 years or so.

Khalil Mack DE/Lb Oakland - this might end up being a win, win for both. First, Oakland just paid HUGE money for Carr, so cap is tight. Second, while no one can argue Mack is an elite defender - Gruden had a point, even with Mack they sucked last year. If they get the 2 first rounders that are rumored..... this could go very quickly to fix those many issues that Oakland has to address. Meanwhile Chicago HAS cap space and room due to young drafted Qb with 3 years left on the deal - so they can eat a huge contract. Defense has needed that outside push for a while.

Last but not least Earl Thomas S Seattle - he is still holding out and team to my knowledge isn't negotiating with him. Again, they may simply realize they can't afford him, and he isn't the young stud Donald and Mack are. Look for some type of deal to trade soon I bet.

Net, some of these moves make sense to me, and in NFL economics the key driver is the Qb contract. If you have a young drafted Qb that is winning, you have 4-5 years of freedom to spend elsewhere to win now and make huge headway. But if not, if you have to pay to keep that Qb, you may have to sacrifice in other areas.

 

[Walter34]

I am thrilled with the acquisition for the Bears. The defence was top 10 and then added Roquan Smith and now Mack. Expensive yes, but you don't get a chance at a player of this caliber too often.

 

[mudloggerone]

If you have a young drafted Qb that is winning, you have 4-5 years of freedom to spend elsewhere to win now and make huge headway. But if not, if you have to pay to keep that Qb, you may have to sacrifice in other areas.

Or you can draft the NFC offensive & defensive ROY plus a couple of other studs in the same class anddo it the old fashioned way. Having your cake and eating it too.

 

[Phicinfan]

Or you can draft the NFC offensive & defensive ROY plus a couple of other studs in the same class anddo it the old fashioned way. Having your cake and eating it too.

You can count on ONE hand teams that have that ability. Seriously not joking here.... Saints have had some great drafts...but who else? I will also add, that also depends on how many holes you have.

 

[mudloggerone]

Very few holes now barring injuries.

 

[mudloggerone]

But such is indeed an option to those that can pull it off. Geaux Saints!

 

[Walter34]

The saints draft last year is among the top 5 that I can recall of all time. Great for them but I wouldn't count on 4 or 5 starters and 2 pro-bowlers in a single draft as a "strategy"

With all due respect: 1983 Bears

1st - Jimbo Covert LT (multiple pro bowls)
2nd - Willie Gault - starting WR
3rd - Mike Richardson - starting CB
4th - Dave Duerson - pro bowl safety
5th - Tom Thayer - starting OL
8th - Richard dent - HOF DE
8th - Mark Bortz - starting OL, 1 pro bowl

Steelers early 70s have even better ones.

 

[mudloggerone]

That's 2 not counting the Steelers. How many fingers are on y'alls hand?

 

[Walter34]

Mack gets 6 yr, 141M, 90M guaranteed.

Donald is now underpaid.

 

[Phicinfan]

Trade for Mack - 2019 1st rounder, 2020 1st rounder, 2020 3rd rounder and a 2019 6th rounder from Chicago for Mack.

Wow, just Wow, Bears in it to win it now...

 

[efactor]

Trade for Mack - 2019 1st rounder, 2020 1st rounder, 2020 3rd rounder and a 2019 6th rounder from Chicago for Mack.

Wow, just Wow, Bears in it to win it now...

But Chicago got back a 2nd and a 5th in 2020. Trade was better for the Bears than the original reporting of 2 1sts and a player.

In terms of pure draft capital, a steal for the Bears. If the Bears had the opportunity to draft Mack with their 2019 1st rounder, it would be a no brainer. They give up a 2020 1st rounder but move up from 3rd round to 2nd and from 6th to 5th. All day long on that.

But of course, you have to pay him. Cost of having and keeping great players.

 

[Phicinfan]

But Chicago got back a 2nd and a 5th in 2020. Trade was better for the Bears than the original reporting of 2 1sts and a player.

In terms of pure draft capital, a steal for the Bears. If the Bears had the opportunity to draft Mack with their 2019 1st rounder, it would be a no brainer. They give up a 2020 1st rounder but move up from 3rd round to 2nd and from 6th to 5th. All day long on that.

But of course, you have to pay him. Cost of having and keeping great players.

which they have the space to do, as they are on a cheap Qb contract with Trubisky so yeah not as bad a deal as thought

 

[Phicinfan]

One person yet has not called me out on the one hold out that has not been spoken of....Shame on you all.

Le'Veon Bell - so he has been tagged twice - can't be tagged again(cost way too high).
So what should Pittsburgh do? Well, if I were Pittsburgh, I would run his legs off and then let him go, you won't get compensation, but you will get value for him while you have him and time to plan for the future. He will be almost 30 and the mileage on the tires is wearing him down IMO.

I would say for safety , Le'Veon should hold out til he gets new deal OR wait til last minute to get full contract year counted.

 

[efactor]

One person yet has not called me out on the one hold out that has not been spoken of....Shame on you all.

Le'Veon Bell - so he has been tagged twice - can't be tagged again(cost way too high).
So what should Pittsburgh do? Well, if I were Pittsburgh, I would run his legs off and then let him go, you won't get compensation, but you will get value for him while you have him and time to plan for the future. He will be almost 30 and the mileage on the tires is wearing him down IMO.

I would say for safety , Le'Veon should hold out til he gets new deal OR wait til last minute to get full contract year counted.

Yeah, strangely little conversation about Bell. Most everyone seems to assume he will be there opening day. Not so sure of that. Somebody dropped Conner in a redraft league and I gladly picked him up. Could get a few games out of him.

 

[Phicinfan]

Time to talk Lev Bell and what to do with him.

So lets talk real history.

Bell was drafted in 2013 from Michigan State(Go big 10!!!).
He has played 5 years and so far in his NFL career made roughly $14 million dollars in salary(yeah he makes more in incentives...).

$14 Million in 5 years - do some of us realize that I can think of at least two middle range Qbs that have made that in 1 year? Some lower level Wrs as well.

Granted, that is the NFL, Rbs right now are low on totem pole as some feel they can be easily replaced in the draft. That may be changing with the big deal for Gurney though.

So, he was Franchise tagged last year, and held out all camp but was in for week 1. He played all year, and had a HUGE year - 1291 yards rushing 9 TDs rushing, 655 yards receiving and 2 receiving TDs - However he was used extensively - 321 rushing attempts - 85 receptions - gets you to 406 uses. That is a HUGE load.

So, Pittsburgh made a long term offer - Bell said no - which in hindsight was the right thing to do now that you look at what Gurley got....
He got tagged again - and now cannot renegotiate the contract since the deadline has passed. So he is stuck playing another year at $14 million then will probably be an FA

So everyone expected what happened last year will happen again...and guess what....it isn't. Bell realizes if he gets used that heavy again, he will be shortening his career, and if he gets hurt - he will kill his $$$$ value.

So we could be looking at a protracted hold out. He can stay out til AFTER week 10. If he signs his tender prior to the tuesday post week 10 he will get the full year accrued and be an FA at end of year.

Edit to add - Pittsburgh has stated they won't rescind the FA tag - if they did he would become a UFA and could sign with anyone. They also state they expect him to play for Pittsburgh..but after the Mack trade...is a trade an option? Would be best value for Pittsburgh IMO.

So you have to ask what next?

Many must have used a 1st round pick for Bell. Do you sit on him...and wait to maybe week 11 before you can use him?? That is a long wait.
Do you trade him...and try to get some value? Not sure what value you can get.

thoughts?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I don't know how anyone could trade for Bell right now, unless the price was crazy low. He's going to want top money for a new contract....a contract you can offer to him next spring without giving up any picks. A contract that isn't in line with how most teams build a championship team.

 

[Phicinfan]

I don't know how anyone could trade for Bell right now, unless the price was crazy low. He's going to want top money for a new contract....a contract you can offer to him next spring without giving up any picks. A contract that isn't in line with how most teams build a championship team.

Oh, I don't know. It would be a HUGE risk, due to the Franchise Tag and all. they would have to be willing to pay his salary demands, so inline with what Gurney got.

But there ARE teams that have young Qbs that could use a stud back like Bell, and have the cap space to pull it off.

Kicker is will Pittsburgh trade him? As it is, if he walks next year as an UFA, they will get compensation - probably a 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

[Phicinfan]

Time to talk Lev Bell and what to do with him.

So lets talk real history.

Bell was drafted in 2013 from Michigan State(Go big 10!!!).
He has played 5 years and so far in his NFL career made roughly $14 million dollars in salary(yeah he makes more in incentives...).

$14 Million in 5 years - do some of us realize that I can think of at least two middle range Qbs that have made that in 1 year? Some lower level Wrs as well.

Granted, that is the NFL, Rbs right now are low on totem pole as some feel they can be easily replaced in the draft. That may be changing with the big deal for Gurney though.

So, he was Franchise tagged last year, and held out all camp but was in for week 1. He played all year, and had a HUGE year - 1291 yards rushing 9 TDs rushing, 655 yards receiving and 2 receiving TDs - However he was used extensively - 321 rushing attempts - 85 receptions - gets you to 406 uses. That is a HUGE load.

So, Pittsburgh made a long term offer - Bell said no - which in hindsight was the right thing to do now that you look at what Gurley got....
He got tagged again - and now cannot renegotiate the contract since the deadline has passed. So he is stuck playing another year at $14 million then will probably be an FA

So everyone expected what happened last year will happen again...and guess what....it isn't. Bell realizes if he gets used that heavy again, he will be shortening his career, and if he gets hurt - he will kill his $$$$ value.

So we could be looking at a protracted hold out. He can stay out til AFTER week 10. If he signs his tender prior to the tuesday post week 10 he will get the full year accrued and be an FA at end of year.

Edit to add - Pittsburgh has stated they won't rescind the FA tag - if they did he would become a UFA and could sign with anyone. They also state they expect him to play for Pittsburgh..but after the Mack trade...is a trade an option? Would be best value for Pittsburgh IMO.

So you have to ask what next?

Many must have used a 1st round pick for Bell. Do you sit on him...and wait to maybe week 11 before you can use him?? That is a long wait.
Do you trade him...and try to get some value? Not sure what value you can get.

thoughts?

Update to the Bell story....
Per PFT and ESPN - deadline for him to return and PLAY this year is 4 pm Nov. 13th. If he does not come in and sign his tender by then, he is out the entire year.
Per sources Bell has been told they will place a transition's tag on him next year -setting the contract at 9-10 million dollars for next year - Beauty of that is, he can negotiate with any team, and if they sign him, Pittsburgh still has right to match and he HAS to play for Pittsburgh.
One other factor is out though - he doesn't have to play to make FA next year. He has 4+ seasons to be eligible for FA, so he can just sit and wait to see what Pittsburgh does next.

Net, I am pretty sure you won't see Le'Veon Bell on the field this year.

 

[Deacon]

And why should he report now? He has already gambled and lost. If he still becomes a UFA without showing up then I see no reason to come in now. Not like he needs to pad his resume, everyone knows what he brings to the table. Good luck to him in free agency but no one is going to pay him what Pittsburg offered and how likely is it that he will go to a team that won't try to break his back with workload.

 

[MongerKhan]

For what it's worth he tweeted out farewell Miami which is his offseason home about 2 hours ago.