ER's picks of the week

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
You like free money? Well follow me here then. Week 1 always offers lines that you wont find later in the season as the public catches up with the sharp fans.

1. Carolina has been -3 all week. Such a standard line. Vegas is saying that these 2 teams are equals, and they're simply laying the 3 points to the home team. The public is on Dallas, taking it down to -2.5 in some spots. TAKE CAROLINA. -2.5 is fantastic, but -3 is fine as well, and still one of my top plays of the week. Carolina is better on both sides of the ball, and playing at home. This feels so obvious, that I wonder what Im missing.

2. Cincy +3. Another generic line. Indy getting the standard -3 for a home team. However, Cincy is clearly the better team here. Im not convinced Luck has his arm strength back, and Im saying he still needs to knock the rust off. Public seems to be on Cincy here. Line down to +2.5 now. Get on this before it gets any closer to a pick em tomorrow morning.

3. Cincy/Indy under 48. This is totally a play fading Andrew Luck. I don't think he's ready to put up more than 20 points. His arm doesn't look right, the run game is banged up. Im just not buying that the Indy offense is ready to score some points.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Ive already got the Cincy/Indy under, and Im thinking I might double down. Indy team total for tomorrow is 24.5. That just seems too high for a team rolling a QB out there who hasn't played in 2 years. Im fading the under on the game because I don't believe in the Colts anyways.

You guys got anything you like and why?
 

German CTL

Circle City Outlaw
I definitely like your 2 picks ATS.

Also kinda like the Rams (-4.5) to thump the now Mack-less Raiders in Oakland.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
I definitely like your 2 picks ATS.

Also kinda like the Rams (-4.5) to thump the now Mack-less Raiders in Oakland.
Agreed. I think Oakland is one of the worst teams in the league. I absolutely hammered their season win total under. I really don't understand how Vegas had that line at 8 even. There is no way in hell that's a 9-7 team.
 

German CTL

Circle City Outlaw
Parlayed Cincy ats and Carolina ats for a win .. We gotta do a weekly betting thread on here from now on!
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Parlayed Cincy ats and Carolina ats for a win .. We gotta do a weekly betting thread on here from now on!
Well done! If I had avoided the under in the Indy/Cincy game, I would've cleaned up today.

Bet some player props in the night game that cost me a bit. Jamaal Williams 1.5 receptions. I hammered the over. Not a single catch, of course.
 

German CTL

Circle City Outlaw
So who you liking for week 2??

Texans (-3) @ Titans looks good to me... Mariota banged up. No Delanie Walker. Watson gets Fuller back.

Kinda liking Colts (+6) to cover in Washington as well.
 
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ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
So who you liking for week 2??

Texans (-3) @ Titans looks good to me... Mariota banged up. No Delanie Walker. Watson gets Fuller back.

Kinda liking Colts (+6) to cover in Washington as well.
Hou is my #1. Both starting tackles are out for Tenn.

Watt and dem boys have to be licking their chops.

I'm also on Carolina over 19.5.

If the weather is ok, I'll take Pitt over 24, and potentially -4.5. I think Ben is going to rip KC to shreds.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Miami opened at -3 Vs Oakland.

Oakland just went on the road. Now they travel again, this time from one corner of the country, to the opposite. For a noon game.

0-2 vs 2-0....and Vegas is giving the bland -3 line. This will be 4.5 by game time. Bet it early.
 

German CTL

Circle City Outlaw
Miami opened at -3 Vs Oakland.

Oakland just went on the road. Now they travel again, this time from one corner of the country, to the opposite. For a noon game.

0-2 vs 2-0....and Vegas is giving the bland -3 line. This will be 4.5 by game time. Bet it early.
I like it...

I'm also considering GB -3 @ Wash and Sea -1 vs Dallas.. thoughts?
 
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