2018 Last Mock Draft - Phicinfan goes for broke :D

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
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Okay folks, this is my last shot at this. so hang onto your cookies.

1) Cleveland - I have no doubt, none, that this will be a Qb. The question that keeps coming up is, which Qb. Most "experts" have Sam Darnold from USC as the sure fire top Qb in this draft. But here is what is funny, most feel that Josh Rosen is the most pro-ready to start. How can you be best Qb in draft...and not be pro-ready? - The pick here is Josh Allen Qb Wyoming, why? He has the highest ceiling of all the top Qbs. He has some of the best arm strength, and some of the best mobility. What attracts me is his size, and the fact cold weather won't effect him, and he will win games on his own.

2) N.Y. Giants - This to me comes down to what Cleveland does. By all reports the ONLY Qb the Giants are interested in is Sam Darnold. If Cleveland goes with Darnold, then you will see Barkley or trade here. With Cleveland doing the smart thing (IMO) this leaves Gettleman with a huge issue. Do you take the game changer with Barkley who will make Eli better, or do you plan for the future. I think the Giants are in on Eli, and want to give him a shot at it with some REAL tools. Choice here is Saquon Barkley Rb Penn State - they will have to address the O-line as well, but this kid will take a load off of Eli's back.

3) N.Y. Jets (trade with Indianapolis)- have to be doing the cha, cha, cha right now. They HAVE to have a Qb, and they MOVED to get a Qb, and 4 of the top 5 Qbs are on the board. This is a no brainer here, with Josh McCown to start and let him learn the pick is Sam Darnold Qb USC.

4) Cleveland - I am willing to bet that the Browns are really disappointed here. I firmly believe they thought the top 3 picks would be Qb with Giants drafting or trading for a Qb there at #2. But it didn't work out, and personally I think it is for the best. Here they address the defense and get the other bookend for the DE they took last year. The pick here is Bradley Chubb De NC State, this is not a need pick, but he is the best talent on the board and will make them a really scary team on defense.

5) Denver - Here we go, moral dilemma #2 - do you go Qb, and admit that Keenum is just a bridge, or do you go for some other key needs that are there? Denver needs OL help on the interior, they need Cb help with all the trades and FA losses. But they also need their Qb guru GM to set this franchise up for the long haul. I don't care what folks think, Keenum will be the next bust Qb, he was in the perfect system, thus storm last year, and got his $$$$. But he is not the correct choice. Pick here is Josh Rosen Qb UCLA. He is the most pro-ready to start, he will by mid-season or sooner take over, and make Denver look brilliant.

6) Buffalo(trade with Indianapolis, through N.Y.Jets) - Yup I am calling it again. Colts have a ton of holes, and for whatever reason, they have faith that Luck will return, but also have Brissett if he doesn't. Qb is not the need, and there is talent lower to hit what they need. Buffalo, for all its bluster has basically stated they want a QB of the future. They went and got McCarron to keep the spot warm, but will take the Qb for its future, and really fits what they are doing. The choice here is Baker Mayfield Qb Oklahoma. I do think the following teams will be talking to Indy - Buffalo, Arizona and Miami - but only Buffalo has the picks to make this work - 2 first rounders for Indy is too much for Arizona and Miami to match. My guess is, Buffalo will send the 2 first rounders this year and probably a 3rd rounder as well.

7) Tampa Bay - Dire need at Cb makes this an easy selection - Denzel Ward Cb Ohio State is the pick. I have this kid higher than Fitzpatrick due to him being a pro-ready Cb, while Fitzpatrick seems more a slot Db or Safety to me.

8) Chicago Bears - Nagy is an offensive minded HC. Bears had an atrocious OL last year. Bears went and got alot of help for the offense at Wr, but they HAVE to keep the kid upright. The pick here is Quenton Nelson OL Notre Dame. This will give some much needed help to both Trubisky and the run game.

9) San Francisco - The 49ers have to be thrilled here. They have major need on the defense and there is a plethora of talent here for them to take. Had Ward made it here, I think that would have been the pick. But with the loss at LB on this team, and with the look of Foster being a lost cause I think the bigger need and quite frankly the better talent is LB - the pick is Roquan Smith ILB Georgia. This kid will solidify the middle for the 9ers, and they can go defensive back in the 2nd round.

10) Oakland - Boy is Jon Gruden really regretting that coin toss right now. There is no doubt in my mind they would have loved to have had either Ward, Nelson or Smith with this pick. LB is still a dire need, as is DB. I am really torn here, between two guys, both I feel would help. But am going with what I feel is the biggest need, and best talent on board. Tremaine Edmunds Lb Virginia Tech is the pick, with the plan to go Cb later as the best option.

11) Miami - No Qb is worth taking here. I am a HUGE Lamar Jackson fan, but he is not worth this high a pick. A move down is probably preferred by Miami, but I don't think the talent really stands out here to make a move. The only team that may need to move up is Arizona to go Qb, but they can stay where they are at and do that IMO. No they need help, and OT is one key need. Going who I feel is the best OT here with Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame as the pick. They have to keep Tannehill on his feet, and give the running game some help.

12) Indianapolis(trade with Buffalo) - This to me is down to two players. One is a smaller school, the other is a need in the back field. Pick here is Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Alabama - they have need at Cb and this kid will help them a ton.

13) Washington - Everywhere I read, DT is the key need on defense for the Redskins. There are two here that rate pretty high, but I am going with the one I think fits the need most. Vita Vea DT Washington is the pick. Kid is huge in the middle and gets great push on pass rush as well.

14) Green Bay - I am hearing a ton lately that they need help at Wr. And I understand that discussion, but I don't buy it. Key needs for this team are OL and DBs pure and simple. They need more depth on D- line as well, but they addressed that in FA. No if McGinchey or Nelson were here, OL would be the choice. But with both of them gone and all the top LBs gone, to me this has to be DB again. Jaire Alexander Cb Louisville makes the most sense here. He fills a major need, and won't seem like a panic signing like Wr would.

15) Arizona - Houston we have a problem. Top Qbs are gone, again, I am a Lamar Jackson fan, but not this high, he needs alot of work. If you don't go Qb, then you have to do one of two things - either go Wr or go OL. To me the greater need is Wr, other than Fitzpatrick they really don't have any decent Wrs. The top Wr is still on the board here, and I think Arizona will take him to help out Bradford. The pick has to be Calvin Ridley Wr Alabama, and they have to hope Rudolph or one of the other 2nd tier Qbs fall to them in the next round.

16) Baltimore - that collective groan you just heard was all the Ravens staff that was holding their breath in hopes that Ridley had fallen to them. But no such luck. I realize Baltimore has signed Crabtree, but that is not enough. The passing game was enemic last year, and part of that was due to lack of talent at the Wr and TE positions. Te could be an option, but the top Te's really don't rate this high a pick IMO. I think they go the local kid to learn from the vet - pick is D. J. Moore Wr Maryland. Kid is great inside or outside and will make this offense better.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
17) L. A. Chargers - Need NT to take pressure off the LBs, and they need safety help as well. Two players stand out here, but one has much better value. Going Derwin James S Florida State as the pick.

18) Seattle - What a mess this team has become. OL is still a dire need, but so is Cb after all the losses they have seen. What this team needs on Def is a solid Corner who takes the ball away. That would be Josh Jackson Cb Iowa. Kid is a ball hawk and led in INTs for his team. Hughes was an option, but some off field stuff that is being talked has dropped his value some.

19) Dallas - With Dez gone, Wr could be a real need. But lets face it, this is not a deep draft for Wr, and with Ridley and Moore off the board, it is not the time to panic and reach for a Wr. No, its time to do more to help the defense, that will be better anyway with a full season of Zeke Elliot to eat up time on offense. To me there are two players that fit here. Lb and DT are the key needs. I am sticking with my pick from last time and taking Rashaan Evans ILB Alabama as the pick here. This defense really loses identity when Sean Lee is out, this will help cover that.

20) Detroit - lots of needs, OL is one, DE or pass rushing specialist is another. Personally I feel Rb is a major issue as well, but signing Blount helps that quite a bit. No they need some support for Ansah, and need to get much better pass rush - pick is Marcus Davenport DE UTSA. Not a big reach here, have seen him go as early as GB in alot of mocks, and this fits a real need.

21) Cincinnati - OL, I don't care what anyone says, this team HAS to get more OL help. The Question is, what is more in need C , G or OT. To me the interior line is more a need. With Glenn trade they covered LT, and the other two OTs they have should fix the RT spot. But they are really weak at G and C so the pick here is a tweener who can play both - pick is James Daniels C/OG Iowa . Price from Ohio State is also an option here, but with the injury he got in the combine I think Daniels rates a bit higher.

22) Indianapolis(trade with Buffalo) - Time to protect Luck, and keep the DL off of him. Pick here is Will Hernandez OG UTEP. They have to invest to protect their Qb.

23) New England(trade with L.A. Rams) - Lets protect our Qb in Brady, and select OT Kolton Miller UCLA to fill the gap we have at OT.

24) Carolina - traded away a starting Cb to Philly, who promptly let him go. But the need is still there. Mike Hughes Cb UCF is a great fit, has some off field baggage, but nothing that will keep him off someone's board.

25) Tennessee - Need some outside pass rush, so lets go OLB Harold Landry Boston College to fit the need and get some solid value here.

26) Atlanta - pretty much close to what I had before, they need to fill that loss of Poe at DT, and this kid is solid value here - Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama will be a great add for this defense.

27) New Orleans - DL is a need, but best talent has been taken. This team has desperately needed a TE to carry the short game, and red zone, and take some pressure off of Kamara and Thomas. So lets give them to me the best catching TE with Hayden Hurst Te South Carolina. Some have Goedert ranked higher, but I really like this kid.

28) Pittsburgh - Needs on defense are many, need ILB to replace Shazier, need DL to add pressure, and need Cb and S help as well. To me this is a best value equation for Pittsburgh, which is what they are really good at. Going with a bit of a reach here, but I think this kid will excel in this defense - Leighton Vander Esch ILB Boise State.

29) Jacksonville - Need pass catchers, WR talent is not at good value here, but TE is. Can you tell I don't rank Stefarian Jenkins high ;) , so lets give them a top Te to work with - Dallas Goedert Te South Dakota State.

30) Minnesota - Time to protect the new Qb and returning Rb for this team. With Berger's retirement they need help at OG - lets go Isaiah Wynn OG Georgia .

31) New England - Do I think this will happen. Not sure. By all reports they are really interested in this kid, and at this value the risk is good. My question is, are they driving this train to get someone like Arizona to deal up to get him from 2nd round or not. But since I am not sure what they really want going to give them a total make over on offense - Lamar Jackson Qb Louisville is the pick.( I do think this could end up a trade by the by.)

32) Philadelphia - Lb is a dire, dire need. Taking a kid I am high on with Lorenzo Carter OLB Georgia.

That pretty much is it folks. I will say this. IF Buffalo does not trade up, look for them to make a move to get Mason Rudolph Qb Oklahoma state in the 2nd to meet the need. I love this kid, and Arizona may take him instead which would be a great fit.
 

Walter34

Well-Known Member
I agree with the pick for Chicago. Disagree with the commentary. The O-line was actually average to above average last year. They had one of the best interior lines in the league but Sitton was released due to $ and Long has not been healthy in recent years. These are the two reasons a G is a need for them. Also, protecting the young QB makes sense as well. Long is now healthy per reports, Whitehair is a solid center and if they add nelson - best interior in the league. Charles leno is a former late pick that is actually pretty good at LT. Not all pro or anything but definitely solid.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
ESPN is airing this "Rookie Preview" show, and one of the guys they followed through the combine was of course Saquon Barkley.

Upon further review, Cleveland should straight up take him at #1. Go QB at 4, and then ship off Carlos Hyde for whatever they can get for him.

This mix of QBs seems to have no clear cut favorite. At 4, they could still easily land the guy who becomes the best QB out of this class.

Saquon just has that glow about him with every stat and measurable to back it up. Guy was a freak in college, then crushed the combine. SPARQ has him in the 98th percentile among NFL athletic ability at the RB position. That really is disgusting. Means there's maybe 3 RBs in the entire league who are a better athlete than this kid. Last year, Kamara was the work out warrior. His SPARQ had him ranked in the 91st percentile, and that was the highest among RBs last year. Then look what happened.

3 years from now we're gonna look back at Cleveland who passed on Barkley and just shake our heads. They're gonna have 2 of the top 4 picks, and somehow not come away with the best player in this class.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
ESPN is airing this "Rookie Preview" show, and one of the guys they followed through the combine was of course Saquon Barkley.

Upon further review, Cleveland should straight up take him at #1. Go QB at 4, and then ship off Carlos Hyde for whatever they can get for him.

This mix of QBs seems to have no clear cut favorite. At 4, they could still easily land the guy who becomes the best QB out of this class.

Saquon just has that glow about him with every stat and measurable to back it up. Guy was a freak in college, then crushed the combine. SPARQ has him in the 98th percentile among NFL athletic ability at the RB position. That really is disgusting. Means there's maybe 3 RBs in the entire league who are a better athlete than this kid. Last year, Kamara was the work out warrior. His SPARQ had him ranked in the 91st percentile, and that was the highest among RBs last year. Then look what happened.

3 years from now we're gonna look back at Cleveland who passed on Barkley and just shake our heads. They're gonna have 2 of the top 4 picks, and somehow not come away with the best player in this class.
Here's the thing.....you simply don't take a RB #1 in the draft anymore. The value doesn't pay out.

Top two rookie back last year - Hunt(3rd round) and Kamara(3rd round). This is not an outlier. It has been the history of the league lately.

Now, do all 1st round Rbs fail - absolutely not. Fournette last year and even McCaffrey last year had pretty darn good years. Can't argue Zeke two years ago either. But NONE of them were picked #1. Fournette was at #4, McCaffrey at #8.

The last Rb that was taken at #1 was Ki-Jana Carter by Cincinnati in 1995. There is a reason for that.

The last few Rbs taken in round one that were taken high....:
2006 – Reggie Bush ag #2

2005 Ronnie Brown at #2

1999- Edgerrin James at 4

1999 – Ricky Williams at 5

Of those listed, Edgerrin James was probably the most successful.

Net, you can get Rbs later, so you have to use your higher picks for most value. Rb isn't most value. At least that is what history teaches us.

Cleveland HAS to get their long term Qb. Even if the top 4 don't seem that different, I guarantee you the teams see differences. They have to get the guy they really, really want. To me the ONLY way they go for Barkley at #1 is if they are higher on Rosen and/or Mayfield. Both or at least one of them should still be there at #4.
 

Walter34

Well-Known Member
Backs also have a 4-6 year window for prime. QBs are 15 yrs + if they are good. To me the high pick RB is best on an established team with that one missing piece.

Zeke to Dallas and Fournette to Jax to a lesser extent are examples. A shitty team taking an RB top 5 makes no sense to me.
 

MongerKhan

TXL: Pimp Hand Strong
Staff member
Moderator
It wouldn't make sense if they didn't have 2 picks of the top 5.

I think everyone agrees that the quarterbacks are all around the same caliber at the top of the list. Therefore you could get the same caliber quarterback a few picks later and have a probable franchise running back to pair with that rookie quarterback and that would make life a hell of a lot easier for them.

Look how much more proficient Blake Bortles got with Leonard Fournette.

Dynamic running backs change games and Saquon Barkley is by far a dynamic RB.


And it doesn't matter who they pick no one is going to be happy with their choice. To me with the kind of athlete you have sitting there you go running back first and then get your quarterback 2 picks later.
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
Look this is Cleveland and being that what it is I think taking 2 QB's give them their best chance of hitting a true stud. If they both turn out to be great NFL QB's they can trade one later. With their luck in drafting QB's it's their best chance of getting a wiener.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
It wouldn't make sense if they didn't have 2 picks of the top 5.

I think everyone agrees that the quarterbacks are all around the same caliber at the top of the list. Therefore you could get the same caliber quarterback a few picks later and have a probable franchise running back to pair with that rookie quarterback and that would make life a hell of a lot easier for them.

Look how much more proficient Blake Bortles got with Leonard Fournette.

Dynamic running backs change games and Saquon Barkley is by far a dynamic RB.


And it doesn't matter who they pick no one is going to be happy with their choice. To me with the kind of athlete you have sitting there you go running back first and then get your quarterback 2 picks later.
Except what if he isn't? I again point back to Ki-Jana Carter another Penn State for sure Rb, and he was out in 2 years due to injury. There is not such thing as any kind of lock in a draft. None.

While I agree a Rb can help immensely, as could a Qb, they are losing the best OLT in the game this year due to injury retirement, and THAT should be key to fix as well.

I also don't think all these Qbs are as close as some think. There are some clear advantages with some over others. Again, you have been a winless franchise for 2 years...YOU HAVE to get your future, in this Qb stocked draft. So you have to nail YOUR guy. As your job will depend on it.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
You know what... I am starting to also have 2nd thoughts about the #1 pick. Lets play this out and see what is what.....

First, by all reports, Cleveland is very high on Baker Mayfield. Obviously we don't know where they have him rated vs. Darnold or Allen or Rosen.

But....what happens next....

So lets say Cleveland goes Barkley at #1 - yes I think if it isn't a QB, it is Barkley...Chubb is not the #1 in this draft.
#2 - Giants - now it gets sticky. By all reports Giants wanted either Barkley or Darnold - but not sure they really want the Qb this year with Eli there. Either way, I don't think it matters, as if Giants don't take Darnold at two, they probably trade down and Darnold will be #2.
#3 - Jets - this is where it gets sticky... Jets supposedly liked the top 3, but we don't know the order they have their 3.... - With Allen and Rosen and Mayfield there.....not sure where they go.
#4 - Browns are locked into either Allen, or Mayfield, and will get one of those two.

But even in this scenario....the issue is now you have 2 question marks vs. 1. If they go Qb first, they KNOW they get the Qb they want. If they go Barkley first, the are down to a 50/50 chance.

Still, it might be fun to try it.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
The Browns have it made. Take the RB and let a Qb fall in your lap. I'd take Jackson.
I LOVE the kid, but that high??? If I really liked Jackson, I would move down then, say to just above Miami, and get more picks to fix this team.
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
An offensive coordinator told NFL Network he doesn't expect Lamar Jackson to make it as a quarterback.

"Will not be able to play quarterback in this league, mark my words," the coordinator said. "When he throws, he hopes." A quarterbacks coach added that Jackson struggled to "verbalize" his offensive scheme at Louisville. Jackson's accuracy and football IQ have been questioned throughout the pre-draft process, but he's not expected to fall out of the first round.





Source: NFL Network
 

cctekguy

Staff member
Heard just a minute ago that New England's interest in Jackson is REAL.

Kid must have something going for him.
 
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