2018 Draft (The Cousins Ripple Effect)

[Arctic Dawgs]

With the Garapollo signing we now have a pretty good idea on what his contract range will be, and what will happen with
Rodgers, Wilson, & others heading for the final years of their deals. Also several teams thought to be in the running could very well be priced out of Cousins now due to cap constraints. Let`s take a pre-combine look at how this could impact the 1st 10 or so picks in the draft. Various stories rankings have 3 or 4 QBs going in the 1st 6 picks. Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield all could be very well drafted in the 1st 6 picks so lets look at how Cousins being signed by several different teams could effect the draft.

Cousins signs with Den. They have $27mil cap space ($11mil more if they cut Talib). They have the room

1:01 Cle Although I believe the Barkley rumours out of Indy are false in order to boost the value of their pick at number 3 overall, I think Cle plays it safe and takes Barkley here.

1:02 NYG Darnold, Rosen, Allen, is the question They go QB. Been seeing Allen is their favourite

1:03 Ind Chubb, Fitz, Trade. Jets could move up for their choice of the QBs. Buff and several others could give a boatload to move up. I`m seeing Jets (they have $75mil cap space for a bridge QB) moving up and taking Darnold

1:04 Cle I say they take their QB here. Rosen and Mayfield are the choices, but have been seeing they love Mayfield and his Russell Wilson potential. They already have a boatload of picks and a ton of cap space. They can build the team right now.

1:05 Den They got their man so now what. Chubb and Fitz are still on the board. I cannot see any other QB desperate teams paying the price to trade up to here. Fitzpatrick is the pick here

1:06 NYJ Traded to Indy. They get some extra picks and still get their guy. Chubb

1:07 TBB A bunch of very talented defensive players available so I think the Bucs will go with Davenport here

1:08 Chi They got their QB last year, so Def, trade. Nope I think they protect their young QB. Nelson Posible trade back to Mia, Buf or Cincy

1:09-1:10 SF-Oak Coin flip here over a couple LB`s, Smith and Edmunds. Easy right, Not so fast. With Mia and Cin coming up does Buf try and move up for a QB. Yes and Buf gets Rosen. Oak takes Smith


Up Next – Jets sign Cousins

 

[Phicinfan]

Are you planning on doing one with Minnesota signing Cousins? I ask as I have been seeing some stuff from their new OC, who was a Philly coach gushing on Cousins. Plus, price may not be the only driver for Cousins, he wants to win. Due to that Denver, Minnesota are the leading candidates to me.

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

yup, was sick today

 

[Remote Controller]

I hear Minnesota also.

 

[hikeNbike]

Cousins would be wise to go to Denver or Minnesota. He ia a good but not great qb. Think he can win and improve both teams. If he goes to the Jets, he is going to struggle.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

[Phicinfan]

Honestly - not sure Denver is the place to go. yes their defense is superb - but the o-line is questionable and reports are out there for them to get cap space they will release at least one of their best Wrs if not both. Running game is questionable, and rumors has C.J. Anderson a potential cut as well.

Minny seems like the right spot to me.
Funny thing would be...if N.O. decides to go younger and take Cousins over Brees.
Arizona is another interesting spot....but with Fitz on last year.....Yikes.

To me if Cousins sticks to his guns and wants to win now...Minny is best option. If he wants to get close - Buffalo, Miami and Arizona are okay targets. New Orleans to me is the wild card here.

 

[mudloggerone]

You are free to remove your wildcard PhiCin because the Saints are sticking with Brees.

 

[Phicinfan]

You are free to remove your wildcard PhiCin because the Saints are sticking with Brees.

Sign him, and I will, but until he is signed.......

 

[mudloggerone]

No rush.

 

[Phicinfan]

You are free to remove your wildcard PhiCin because the Saints are sticking with Brees.

Great article from ESPN on the Brees situation:Why Saints, Drew Brees have hard deadline for new contract, and what's next

What we know about Drew Brees is that he will play for the New Orleans Saintsin 2018. Yes, the final three years of his contract will automatically void on March 14, which would make him an unrestricted free agent and the hottest commodity on the market.

But Brees has said repeatedly that he has no interest in leaving New Orleans, the Saints are poised to enter 2018 as one of the favorites in the NFC and there’s no reason to think the quarterback has any interest in testing the market. He’s certain to be a Saint for 2018 and probably for life.

What we don’t know about Brees is how he and the Saints will get his contract to where it needs to be for this to happen. They can’t simply do nothing. If they do nothing, those final three contract years void at the start of the new league year on March 14, and the Saints will be stuck with $18 million worth of signing bonus prorated on this year’s salary cap in addition to whatever salary they end up paying Brees for 2018. This would be a crusher, and New Orleans can’t let it happen, which is why March 14 is a very real deadline for Brees and the Saints to come to agreement on some kind of new contract.

 

[mudloggerone]

Thanks PhiCin.

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

There are several things that are off in that article, but it has answered some of the questions I had regarding Drews situation. I have done a fair amount of research on "Over The Cap" on a good deal of teams after the Grap deal in SanFran. Brees can't be the 1st $30mil man if he hasn't already done it. Graps cap hit for 2018 is at lowest $39mil (I have seen some articles saying $46mil) and may very well be higher. Them paying Grap the upfront extra $12/$15mil in roster bonus instead of signing bonus, will year to year reduce the QB% of cap used on the team salary. Right now the % of cap on QB seems to max at around 15% ($27.5mil this year) across the NFL which is Graps avg over the life of his deal. With the cap going up every year and Graps (on paper salary) cap hit going down, SF has a great cap scenario going forward for the next 4/5yrs (10% of cap on QB ??). Tons of "wiggle room" for a good GM. I was seeing/forecasting QB salary ranges aprox $30mil/yr for a top 4/6 ranked QB, $25/$28mil/yr for a 5/15 ranked QB, and $20/$24mil/yr for the bottom ranked STARTERS and $10/yr for a backup. The Bortles contract threw me for a bit as it seems too high for backup and too low for starter, until I saw he was already guaranteed ~$18mil for 2018 anyway so it looks like they just threw him an extra couple mil to extend it a couple years of "prove it" time. It is probably written with no to very little "dead $$" after this next season.

Now, back to Drew/NOS situation. Right now NOS aprox $32mil in "Cap Room" with Drew counting 6mil. They will need to use $12/$15mil to sign the rookie so they are effectively left with $20mil cap space. If they don't come to an agreement by Mar 14 they will lose another $12mil of that leaving them with ~$8mil cap space (maybe enough for a backup QB) and NO QB. They could regain some cap room with several cuts/trades (Ingram $4.5mil, Unger $4.5mil, etc...) but would still be in dire straights. They MUST resign Drew, so how much ?? They have cap room for 2019 and beyond (every team does) so how can they play with the numbers for a 39yr old QB. He already counts as $6mil/yr for the next 3 yrs. How much "New $$" will it take to sign him. $24mill/yr (lower level QB) would count at $30mil/yr and they would not have enough left ($8mil) to sign the rookies without some other renegotiations and/or cuts. $30mil new $$ would count as $36 against the cap and leave them ~$10mil over the cap after signing rookies. OUCH, that GM has a lot of hard work to do

One other note, Rodgers and Wilson will be getting resigned within the next year or so and their #s will probably get into the $32/$34mil/yr range

 

[Walter34]

I checked awhile back and Matt Ryan is next up. I think his deal expires next season with Rodgers and others the following year.

Highest paid NFL player over the next 18 months will be

- Garrapolo
- Maybe Brees
- Ryan
- Rodgers - 1 Billion per year

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

Wilson's deal expires the same day as Rodgers (Mar 2020 ??) for sure. I'm not sure on any others. With Graps deal being $39mil + for this year, Cousins yet to sign, the cap rising with new TV contracts, Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan, and others are going to blow the top off of QB salarys next year

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

I checked awhile back and Matt Ryan is next up. I think his deal expires next season with Rodgers and others the following year.

Highest paid NFL player over the next 18 months will be

- Garrapolo
- Maybe Brees
- Ryan
- Rodgers - 1 Billion per year

Well, Ya got me to dig out my spreadsheets and have a look to see who is coming up over the next couple years. Not giving every QB in the NFL, but here are the present day highlights over the next couple years coming due. Sorted in order of highest to lowest current salary with my projected new salary (avg/yr) in brackets

2018
Brees ($30mil), Cousins ($30mil), Bradford ($20mil), McCown ($23mil), Keenam ($23mil), Bridgewater ($20mil)

2019 (look for some to resign this offseason) Franchise value will be above $30mil
Ryan ($32mil), Taylor ($25mil), Winston ($30mil), Mariota ($30mil), Foles ($20mil)

2020 look for some to resign next offseason Franchise value will be about $28.5mil
Rodgers ($35mil), Wilson ($33mil), Big Ben (retired), Manning (retired), Rivers (retired), Brady (retired), Goff ($32mil), Wentz ($34mil), Brissett ($20mil), Prescott ($32mil)

2021 Franchise value will be about $33mil


Scratch Rodgers from your list up top. He only makes around $20.5mil this year (2018) and $21.1mil next year (2019)

 

[Walter34]

Bradford ($20mil), McCown ($23mil), Keenam ($23mil), Bridgewater ($20mil)

For above, overstating I think. McCown? Some of these will be backups and if starters they would be on the lower end 12-14M\yr - really just placeholders for a draft pick

Cousins (Minn) and Brees (NO) will set the new market and Keenum will likely be the next starter up (Denver as current trend). I think in 2020, the costs go even higher than you have for the star players.