The RBs of the future

ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Ive been doing a lot of RB research with the future in mind recently as I prepare for a dynasty draft. What I've noticed is that the core group of dependable players at RB are all nearing the twilight of their career.

All age 27+ : Frank Gore, Adrian Pederson, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Ryan Matthews, Darren McFadden, Arian Foster, Joique Bell, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Rashad Jennings. In that group are a lot of the RBs who have been old mainstays at the position. In recent years we've also seen the retirement of repeat fantasy studs like Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, and MJD.

This feels like there's a big RB turning point coming in the next few years. Is the next young crop of RBs already in the league and waiting to put up multiple solid years of stats?

Jeremy Hill, Gio, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, CJ Anderson, Carlos Hyde, Jerrick McKinnon, Jeremy Langford, Alfred Blue, Matt Jones, Lamar Miller, Shane Vareen, Mark Ingram, CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris, Duke Johnson, Andre Ellington, Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, LeSean McCoy, James White, Charles Sims, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Bishop Sankey, TJ Yeldon, Andre Williams.

Not too many guys in the group who have proven their stuff. There's almost certainly 4 players in that group who are about to put together a run of 3+ solid fantasy seasons. Who are they and why?

For my money, and without going after an obvious name, I like Tevin Coleman. The other RB talent on the roster is junk, but the rest of the offense looks good (and young). You don't just accidentally lead FBS in yardage. Kid can play all 3 downs and is in a wonderful situation.
 
bodey24

bodey24

Staff member
I like Gurley to emerge as the next top tier rb if he can stay healthy. He is an absolute beast and one of the biggest playmakers I've seen in college over the past few years.

I used to be a fan of Coleman but the more I saw him play I changed my mind. Most of his long runs were him running a straight line. He doesn't have good vision and goes down easily on contact. Behind a mediocre offensive line I just don't see him panning out.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
bodey24 said:
I like Gurley to emerge as the next top tier rb if he can stay healthy. He is an absolute beast and one of the biggest playmakers I've seen in college over the past few years.

I used to be a fan of Coleman but the more I saw him play I changed my mind. Most of his long runs were him running a straight line. He doesn't have good vision and goes down easily on contact. Behind a mediocre offensive line I just don't see him panning out.
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He was stuck with a below average offensive unit in Indiana and still led FBS in total yards, was 2nd in rushing yards, and 5th in YPC.

On his schedule was a gauntlet of tough run Ds. Mich St (1), Penn St (3), Mich (15), Wisc (23), Mizzou (27) , and Oh St (34). That's almost half of his games against a top running defense. He averaged 8.8 YPC vs the #1 run D in the nation last year. That's pretty strong.
 
bodey24

bodey24

Staff member
ExperiencedRookie said:
He was stuck with a below average offensive unit in Indiana and still led FBS in total yards, was 2nd in rushing yards, and 5th in YPC.

On his schedule was a gauntlet of tough run Ds. Mich St (1), Penn St (3), Mich (15), Wisc (23), Mizzou (27) , and Oh St (34). That's almost half of his games against a top running defense. He averaged 8.8 YPC vs the #1 run D in the nation last year. That's pretty strong.
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I agree he had a great season. He did most of his damage against the bad defenses Indiana played though. He had a great game against Ohio state but most of his yards came on 3 long td runs. After watching a few of his games and doing research for my dynasty leagues I'm not sold that he will be above average. He relied on the home run to put up great numbers. The line created a hole and he ran a straight line to the end zone. He seemed to struggle creating things if someone made him bounce it one way or the other and he really struggles breaking tackles. He also has a sickle cell condition so I'm not sure how that may affect him.
 
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ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
bodey24 said:
I agree he had a great season. He did most of his damage against the bad defenses Indiana played though. He had a great game against Ohio state but most of his yards came on 3 long td runs. After watching a few of his games and doing research for my dynasty leagues I'm not sold that he will be above average. He relied on the home run to put up great numbers. The line created a hole and he ran a straight line to the end zone. He seemed to struggle creating things if someone made him bounce it one way or the other and he really struggles breaking tackles. He also has a sickle cell condition so I'm not sure how that may affect him.
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Something has to be said for situation and opportunity though...and for the rookie runners, there might not be a player besides Melvin Gordon to be in a better spot.

As far as breaking off huge TD runs, isn't that kind of what we want? Would you like him better if he was all shifty and got tackled after 20 yards?

Have to remember too, he was the only offensive weapon that opposing defensive coordinators had to really stop. He still made big plays a churned out yards.

I've decided to like him and you can't change my mind o_O
 
bodey24

bodey24

Staff member
He is in a great position so he has that going for him. With shannahan as the OC he has the ability to get a little more from his rbs. I also like the fact that he has the ability to break off a long run if he has a hole created for him.

However, I would like him more if on some of his long runs he had to make a couple of moves. Give me a stiff arm, spin move, juke, anything really haha. From what I've seen he just doesn't have much ability to break tackles or create for himself if the initial play or hole is broken up. There have a been a lot of rbs who have put up great numbers in college but have been mediocre in the NFL. I might be wrong but I don't think he will be much better than freeman at rb.

Compare that to Gordon and Gurley who are absolute playmakers. They have the ability to hit the hole and take it for a td just like Coleman but they also have the ability to create for themself and make people miss. Turn a blown up play where they should be tackled in the backfield into a gain of positive yardage. I never saw that from Coleman. Just my thoughts and observations. Not trying to change your mind. Haha.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
ExperiencedRookie said:
Ive been doing a lot of RB research with the future in mind recently as I prepare for a dynasty draft. What I've noticed is that the core group of dependable players at RB are all nearing the twilight of their career.

All age 27+ : Frank Gore, Adrian Pederson, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Ryan Matthews, Darren McFadden, Arian Foster, Joique Bell, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Rashad Jennings. In that group are a lot of the RBs who have been old mainstays at the position. In recent years we've also seen the retirement of repeat fantasy studs like Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, and MJD.
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Of these, I am still high on Forte and Peterson. Lynch as well will be great if non-ppr. Charles is dynamic, but I worry about getting beat up. Murray splitting time with Matthews, Bell losing carries to Abdullah. Forsette is the wild card, can he repeat or will defenses be ready this year?



ExperiencedRookie said:
Jeremy Hill, Gio, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, CJ Anderson, Carlos Hyde, Jerrick McKinnon, Jeremy Langford, Alfred Blue, Matt Jones, Lamar Miller, Shane Vareen, Mark Ingram, CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris, Duke Johnson, Andre Ellington, Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, LeSean McCoy, James White, Charles Sims, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Bishop Sankey, TJ Yeldon, Andre Williams.

Not too many guys in the group who have proven their stuff. There's almost certainly 4 players in that group who are about to put together a run of 3+ solid fantasy seasons. Who are they and why?

For my money, and without going after an obvious name, I like Tevin Coleman. The other RB talent on the roster is junk, but the rest of the offense looks good (and young). You don't just accidentally lead FBS in yardage. Kid can play all 3 downs and is in a wonderful situation.
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Of this group, I have to say depends on scoring.
Non-ppr - Hill, Anderson, Hyde, Miller should be solid. Ingram has a chance to shine again, but list him with Morris for durable but not dominant.

WC - Randle, if he can take Dallas by the horns he could be a steal.

PPR - Spiller to replace Graham and be the new Sproles, Vareen to be passing back in NYG, Ellington if he can stay healthy, Coleman I love, but I see RBBC in Atlanta.

Guys that scare me - McCoy - not a great O-line in Buffalo, and Kelly let him go too cheap, think wheels are coming off, Martin and Sankey are wasted roster space.

Sleeper rookie - Yeldon in Jax could be great, and no real sleeper - Gordon in SD is a great fit.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
bodey24 said:
He is in a great position so he has that going for him. With shannahan as the OC he has the ability to get a little more from his rbs. I also like the fact that he has the ability to break off a long run if he has a hole created for him.

However, I would like him more if on some of his long runs he had to make a couple of moves. Give me a stiff arm, spin move, juke, anything really haha. From what I've seen he just doesn't have much ability to break tackles or create for himself if the initial play or hole is broken up. There have a been a lot of rbs who have put up great numbers in college but have been mediocre in the NFL. I might be wrong but I don't think he will be much better than freeman at rb.

Compare that to Gordon and Gurley who are absolute playmakers. They have the ability to hit the hole and take it for a td just like Coleman but they also have the ability to create for themself and make people miss. Turn a blown up play where they should be tackled in the backfield into a gain of positive yardage. I never saw that from Coleman. Just my thoughts and observations. Not trying to change your mind. Haha.
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I just watched a bunch of Coleman's junior year highlights, and you're right. A ton of his big plays come from one cut at the line of scrimmage and then hes a blur for a 60 yd TD. I decided to dig in and just watch an entire game tape of only his carries, and I like the rest that I saw.

Has good hands, can catch the ball and make plays. Runs inside and out. Hes decisive. Gets to a hole quickly. Only thing I didn't like was that he wasn't the most physical runner. Never really finishes off a tackler with a big blow.
 
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