Gio Bernard

[efactor]

Seems kind of an afterthought this year, ranked 19 in FBG preseason RBs for PPR. I know Hill is the starter, but seems like Bernard will still get 150 carries plus and I can realistically see him in the 75-80 catch range as Cinci goes ball control with the running and short passing game. I see 1300 total yards for him this year.

Thoughts?

 

[Phicinfan]

Not sure, the offense at least for passing goes through the Wrs mostly in Cincy. If Marvin Jones is back healthy, and A.J. Green is back healthy, most passing will go through them. Eifert at TE should be back as well for red zone. I do think he will be change of pace, but Hill will carry the running game

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Seems kind of an aI can realistically see him in the 75-80 catch range as Cinci goes ball control with the running and short passing game. I see 1300 total yards for him this year.Thoughts?

75-80? That's an insanely high prediction.

In the last 5 years only 10 RBs have caught 70+ balls in a season.
Forte twice, Sproles 3 times, Leveon, Pierre Thomas, Charles, Rice, and McCoy each did it once.

I think Gio's receiving numbers will be closely tied to whichever RB is better in pass protection.

 

[efactor]

75-80? That's an insanely high prediction.

In the last 5 years only 10 RBs have caught 70+ balls in a season.
Forte twice, Sproles 3 times, Leveon, Pierre Thomas, Charles, Rice, and McCoy each did it once.

I think Gio's receiving numbers will be closely tied to whichever RB is better in pass protection.

Insanely high? He caught 56 his rookie year and 43 last year despite missing 3 full games and not being 100 percent in several others. So an extra catch a game over his rookie year is insane? 75-80 may be a high projection, but certainly not insane.

His receiving numbers (like Sproles) will be tied more to his receiving ability than his pass protection ability (I don't claim to know if he is good or not there). I think Cinci tries to get the ball in his hands as a receiver more this year to take advantage of his big play ability and limit Daltons picks (high number to passes thrown).

Just a guy who I think is being undervalued a bit this year based on early drafts I have seen.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Insanely high? He caught 56 his rookie year and 43 last year despite missing 3 full games and not being 100 percent in several others. So an extra catch a game over his rookie year is insane? 75-80 may be a high projection, but certainly not insane.

His receiving numbers (like Sproles) will be tied more to his receiving ability than his pass protection ability (I don't claim to know if he is good or not there). I think Cinci tries to get the ball in his hands as a receiver more this year to take advantage of his big play ability and limit Daltons picks (high number to passes thrown).

Just a guy who I think is being undervalued a bit this year based on early drafts I have seen.

I still contend that it's insanely high...and I'll try to illustrate why.

In 2013 when he had 56 receptions, he was splitting time with Ben Jarvis who has proven stone hands. He had 7 receptions to Gio's 56. When Jeremy Hill replaced Ben Jarvis in 2014 now Cincy had 2 RBs who were capable pass catchers. Hill caught 27 balls to Gio's 43. When splitting time like this between 2 RBs who can both catch, it's incredibly hard to get to 50 receptions.

To compare him to Sproles and expect anything similar is quite optimistic too. When Sproles was still with New Orleans in 2011-2013 he was a receptions machine. Might be one of the best receiving/3rd down specialty RBs we've seen. He also happened to be playing for an offense that averages 15-20% more pass attempts per year than the Cincy offense.

So essentially, for 75-80 to be Gio's ceiling he would need to not only own 75%+ of the RB receptions for his team, but Cincy would have to have a serious offensive overhaul. Without being a guy like Forte/Ray Rice/McCoy who is a true featured RB and still expect this amount of targets, Cincy would need to be minimum of top 5 in passing attempts.

The numbers just aren't there when you add that all up. That's not to say that Gio is a bad player or anything. He could probably hit 75 receptions if he was playing for Indy or even a team where he could be a featured RB.

 

[Miller]

I actually agree with both thoughts in this thread. While 75-80 rec is likely a little out of the rhelm of possibility in this offense with the role Hill will take... He does seem to be completely under the radar and a guy who could be a very nice RB3 with a lot of upside if Hill would miss any time.

75 really is rare AIr for a rb and not something that is easily attainable.... Offense just doesn't seem to match this expectation.

 

[Walter34]

Gio is very talented but the situation doesn't bode well for him. Hill came on like gangbusters the 2nd half of the year and will be the primary back. Injuries and competition leave him as a poor man's 3rd rb. I would pass unless you are desperate in the 7th round +